In the last nine days our country has been on the edge as youths embarked on what they termed “#EndBadGovernance” protest across most parts of the country. By all standards it was a huge protest with every potential to boil over. As would be expected it threw up many unexpected scenarios with deductible significances.
The core north which for most part of the country’s 63 years independence has been reticent about such protests targeted at regime change at the centre suddenly turned out to be the most vociferous of all the regions. States in the core North like Kano, Katsina, Yobe and Bornu to mention but a few became epic centres of revolt.
The South West where the President hails from experienced partial participation even though most visible leaders of the protest were from the area. And the question has been what could have been responsible, given the place of primordial factors like ethnicity and religion in the management and response to public affairs in the country? Many are of the view that the radical Southwest is beginning to free itself from the stranglehold it got into by playing into the hands of retrogressive forces from the zone, who signed to new political cooperation with the very conservative segment of the northern oligarchy.
With the rise of insecurity occasioned by the importation of jihadist militias from the Sahel by the more ruthless northern political establishment, the Southwest was beginning to anticipate every section could be in for bigger trouble except the country is rescued from forces of backwardness. This partially explains why the Southwest chose to be engaged while their son superintends as President of the Federal Republic.
The biggest surprise came from the South East known for naturally being very disposed to «rebellious» reactions. This time they kept calm. Not talking and not fighting, most people in the region chose to stay in their homes. Everybody is asking why did the Igbo choose the option of «siddon look”. Contrary to the posture of some leaders from the zone, especially governors and other political leaders they had no hand in the resolve by the Igbo to stay clear. It was a reflex act provoked by decades of experience.
The attitude of former former President Muhammadu Buhari all through the eight years of his tenure, to the Igbo and his choice of response to Igbo agitation for secession told the Igbo messages, one of which being that they are not really part of the federation called Nigeria. Every discerning Nigerian knows the agitation is to draw attention to deliberate marginalization of the region and her people in the entity called Nigeria since the Civil War ended over 50 years ago.
The area has the worst network of roads, poorest electricity supply, no federal institution of note is located in the area, politically apart from the deliberate balkanization of the areas, taking their oil wells and re-zoning into different neighbouring ethnic groups. The result is that a major ethnic group has been systematically made to become a minority. While other zones in the country have between six and seven states, South East has been boxed into five states. The effect of the squeeze is made more clear when it is known that representation in most political matters is on proportional basis.
The South East physically didn›t participate in the protest but technically it did. There is always a time silence becomes golden and this is one of those times for the people of South East. When a group in a corporate entity adopts the attitude of «we are not interested», it is an ominous sign. Someone said that for the first time in recent years Igbo got their strategy very correct and that is very true.
In the North people deared the security forces in many instances running to physically kill some personnel, they took control of an armoured personnel carrier, climbed on it and made naked show with it. Many have wondered if that audacity had been shown in the South East if the casualties wouldn’t have shocked the world to its marrow. The youths in the South East didn’t get to that level in their show of agitation but the Buhari presidency virtually released the full weight of the entire state security might on them.
The most ridiculous reactions in terms of the protest came from the north, which kept the very inept regime of Buhari for all of eight years and voted in his successor, President Bola Tinubu, yet they are the one pouring into the streets in very large numbers to protest over bad governance. It looks ironic. Yes hunger is stoking the land but the seed was sown by Northern leaders in power. The Buhari government was very high on wrong politics and zero on good governance. This is the plain truth.
The Buhari administration pandered to base interest of cronyism, ethnic and religious irredentism. Before Buhari the military juntas in power, comprising soldiers of mainly northern Nigeria had signed away the country’s sovereignty. They threw the northern borders wide open to their kins from the Sahel to come and forcefully occupy a land full of gold. Buhari a religious irredentist expanded on the concept and here we are with a badly wounded country, insecurity everywhere to the point of food insecurity has become an issue.
This is what thriving in contradictions could do to anyone and any entity. Contradictions throw up upheavals. The fellows from the north carried Russian flags, and demanded for military take over. By this act both they and their sponsors crossed the boundaries of sense and decency. Internal crisis including sheer stupidity and dislocation aren›t enough reason for any sensible person or group to propagate a recourse to tyranny in any form whatever.
History is replete with negative effects of military in public governance. The rights of the people are taken away, not because the military personnel would want it to be so, the truth is that their orientation is not civil, they are adept at command and control. This approach is never good in the management of large numbers of people. It is a tested process which results have always been huge failures. Democracy may have its challenges but as of today experiences show it to be the best form of government.
The politicians definitely will make their mistakes, they may abandon the path of vision as appears to be the case in our country since the return of democracy in 1999, yet it is natural to allow them make mistakes and allow the contradictions arising therefrom to push them to effect corrections. This is the right process to birthing a sustainable nation state, where development would eventually take place and life would be abundant. Every great nation today passed through this process.
For President Tinubu it is learning the hard way. He is realizing that in politics riding on the back of the tiger is often not a great game after all. Once the beast gets hungry it will eat up its tender. His northern collaborators took him to the mountains and are pushing him to play very dangers games from there. It is a very dangerous gambit and unfortunately he is falling for it.
Whoever told him to just announce removal of petrol subsidy without thinking through was not his friend.
Buhari’s aide said they left the dirty job for him even though they said if they took the option he couldn’t have won the election. Apart from that being a deceit, it was most unkind to give a poisoned chalice to a person you considered a friend. Most wickedly. But again a great leader ought to first be wise. Tinubu and his team refused to be. It is doubtful if they have capacity and this alone is proving to be very costly to the administration.
Yes, it is obvious there are Fifth Columnists pushing to derail the political train. It will always be even in the best of times. What keeps enemies at bay is to deny their efforts oxygen to continue to burn but this is not what has happened in the Tinubu case. The removal of petrol subsidy and floating of the country’s currency has deepened dislocation and hunger in the land. Tinubu should have on the interim attempted to manage the corruption aspect of the subsidy through personnel changes while he worked assiduously to get local refineries up in production.
He didn›t go that way rather he chose the easy way as in the past. The story of getting the refineries working again is what we expected him to tell the protesters rather than why subsidy had to go. Subsidy removal is at the root of current troubles; no more, no less. The pattern of the protest showed a deeply divided country. The citizens need far more than the National Assembly can offer, there is need to gather and discuss and to agree.
Those playing the ethnic and religious cards should receive the rough end of the stick, not warning. This is the way to go. Lagos is becoming too loud too on the ethnic question, many are beginning to run home with the thought it was part of the strategy of the President’s team to keep Lagos in control. The gamble is becoming very costly to national health. This is the plain truth we must tell the President.