The elections into the 9th National Assembly (NASS) held on February 23 have since come and gone with new members of the Senate and the House of Representatives elected and waiting to be inaugurated in June. The elections have, however, come up with lots of political issues. For instance, the issue of who and which zone the new National Assembly leaders would come from has brought to the front burner strategies and counter-strategies with lots of intrigues and more. Unfortunately, there is more talk about party and geographical considerations as well as reward for party loyalty than the quality of those to emerge Assembly leaders.
All the present political permutations are not unconnected to the unexpected emergence of Senator Bukola Saraki, from Kwara State, and Hon. Yakubu Dogara, from Bauchi, who rose to power as Senate President and Speaker, respectively, without the support or approval of their then party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), in 2015. The fact that treachery, betrayal, greed, selfishness and so on have remained a historical reference point and pain in the flesh of the party has not helped matters. 
As the 8th National Assembly draws to a close and another one comes on board in June, the political turf has been filled with rumours and counter-caustic rumours. This is so much so that, by the time Adams Oshiomhole, APC national chairman, came on the stage directing that the Senate Presidency and Speakership had been zoned to Ahmed Lawan and Femi Gbajabiamila, respectively, there was enough ground for the centre not to hold.
There have been grumblings and a frenzy of voices from would-be members of the 9th National Assembly warning against zoning offices to specific individuals. They believe that zoning of leadership positions to individuals, instead of zones (if necessary at all), is autocratic, undemocratic and lacking in balance. Others that think it lacks equity, fairness and, above all, is insensitive to Nigeria’s dire need for leadership inclusiveness now as it was in 2015.
However, the ruling party is convinced that the zoning of offices to specific individuals is to entrench party discipline, order and give direction to APC legislators in the NASS to avoid a repeat of some renegades taking over leadership of the next Assembly. But political developments so far have already been pointing to an admixture of reactions. For example, immediately after a recent parley with APC senators and governors at Aso Rock, Abuja, where Oshiomhole disclosed President Muhammadu Buhari and APC’s choice of Senator Lawan and Hon. Gbajabiamila as Senate President and Speaker, respectively, Ali Ndume came out with his canonical pontification for leadership engagement.
He emphasised that support from one’s people and colleagues were necessary and that it was unconstitutional for the party to impose candidates on legislators. He added that the party was not fair to those interested in the post by not even hearing from them or allowing them to speak while the decision of the party was being announced where they were all present at the Presidential Villa, Abuja. To prove his seriousness, Ndume has since come out with his nine-point agenda as he campaigns for the Senate Presidency. Similarly, other APC representatives besides Gbajabiamila are gunning for the Speakership.
In the process, rumours and counter-rumours reign. The political space is messy and muddled up. There is a group claiming that Lawan and Gbajabiamila are Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s candidates. Therefore, they point to the danger of placing loyalists of one man in positions of power to the detriment of President Buhari and the rest of the country. The argument goes also that Tinubu already has Vice President Yemi Osinbajo and Oshiomhole as his foot soldiers in Buhari’s government, who are being used to harass others into line for his 2023 electoral fortunes. Whether true or not, these weighty allegations are already causing some ripples.
On the other hand, the mudslinging and emergence of multiple candidates, including APC members, for the Senate and House of Representative seats is being blamed on Saraki, Dogara and PDP. The party with its agents is believed to be bent on dividing the APC’s ranks to achieve a repeat of what they did in 2015. Yekini Nabena, APC publicity secretary, and other members of the party have been telling the world about how the plan to divide the party is being perfected. It was to avert the ugly situation from repeating itself that Oshiomhole unveiled to APC 9th National Assembly members who the party’s preferred choice are. But that was to become an issue as both the message and messenger became entangled in controversy, perhaps, because Oshiomhole’s mission was not garbed with the niceties of words and body language. And that’s exactly from where Senator Ali Ndume’s problems emanated. He picked bones with how they were treated. So incensed was he that immediately after the announcement was made, Ndume reacted sharply to it with some outburst. But the duo of Abdullahi Adamu and Danjuma Goje’s swap of silence could not be ascertained for submission either.
Ndume’s veiled threats were soon given weight by Borno people who are lining behind their son, urging him not to withdraw from his Senate Presidency ambition. The question is, how is the party going to handle this affront from its members? Will it embark on suspending, like it did to Governors Rochas Okorocha and Ibikunle Amosun, all those who fail to fall in line by accepting and supporting its candidates? Besides, the answers to these questions open more avenues for crises within the party. Shifting ground from Lawan and Gbajabiamila would certainly cause its own ripple effects. Whether doing so would be to prevent the Nigerian democratic architecture from being in the hands of Tinubu or not, the party would have issues with asserting its supremacy.
At another plank, the unfolding matter is one that is complex because, in the eyes of some critics, they see no justice, tact and wisdom in giving the South West both the Speaker and Vice President positions in a country with six geo-political zones that have all aided the APC to power. But supporters believe that the voice and choice of the party remains sacrosanct. Here, Senator Aliyu Magatakarda (APC, Sokoto) chairman, Northern Senators’ Forum, is vehemently drumming support for the party’s position.
However, the views from politicians across Nigeria, including the 9th National Assembly members in the media, ought not to be taken lightly. They are capable of spinning unexpected consequences.
This is especially so as the party’s decision effectively alienates the South East and North Central from Nigeria’s leadership structure. As a matter of fact, they would be the greatest losers because South South has Oshiomhole as national chair of the party. The South West has Osinbajo, while North West has President Buhari. Will it not be another miscalculation in 2019 to continue with this zoning?
It may be the issue of inclusiveness that even though Saraki came through the back door, he nevertheless calmed some frayed nerves by bringing on board Senator Ike Ekweremadu, then of the PDP, to become the highest representative of the South East in the executive and legislative arms of government under the Buhari presidency. Looking at the matter differently, what is the best way for APC to bring together its members without sounding dictatorial and what critics of its position commonly describe as treating NASS members like schoolchildren who cannot decide for themselves who their leaders should be?
As the intrigues unfold, there is no doubt that APC too is working out ways to poach from the PDP and thus checkmate it from weakening its support base. However, with the would-be 9th NASS legislators from APC taking desperate positions clearly, the 2015 scenario or fate will befall it if their leadership tussle is not handled well. In other words, the early, visible casualties will be those that have been anointed by the party. Make no mistake, party discipline is vital and necessary but it has to be fashioned collectively with the consent and input of all. This was initially missing and the issue of compensation needs to be comprehensively settled for assurances to hold.
Generally, whether they come from majority or minority political parties, Nigerian legislators often share an uncommon strong kindred spirit that anyone outside the hallowed chambers may find very difficult to understand or break. With a cult-like affinity to themselves, their loyalty is often to themselves at the expense of the national and part interests. Rightly or wrongly, the sentiments they share cannot be wished away by party directives and orders without appealing to their interests, which in politics always inform their decisions and actions.
Altogether, it’s important to reflect on if Nigerians have learnt anything from the NASS leadership tussles and politics witnessed since democracy returned in 1999. We recall how Senate presidents Evans Enwerem, Adolphus Wababra, Chuba Okadigbo and so on were wantonly removed to the extent that within eight years all the South East states took turns in leading the National Assembly. Sadly, the prolific leadership changes were due to President Obasanjo’s desire to have the Senate president of his choice. The leadership multiplication never did the South East, National Assembly or our democracy any good. Perhaps, what is needed now is confidence building between the executive and the legislature to reduce areas of friction.
To an extent, lack of creative leadership is part of Nigeria’s problems. Where a governor once demonstrated in Anambra State that it is not only when your party is in control of the Legislature that you can work amicably with them is a critical leadership test. The situation at the 9th assembly is even different because APC is in the majority. What may be at stake is the ability to gauge the national sensibilities well. Put differently, Nigeria’s democracy is getting matured and learning to share authority with the minority party whose candidate is competent and patriotic may be one of its gains. But developing phobia by one arm of government for another or party is a canker worm that will only define our democracy as a platform for adversities not for democratic players. Such politicians play politics for politics sake and not for development.
• Dr. Tachia wrote from Makurdi, Benue State