By Sunday Ani
Less than three months to the 2023 general elections, politicians and their sponsors alike have all been thrown into a frenzy and confusion as to what the outcome would be. Never in the history of elections since the beginning of this Fourth Republic, had the political space and politicians been enveloped in such a high level of tension, anxiety and fear. Not even marabouts and prophets with their alleged gift of clairvoyance can predict who the winner or party of next year’s election would be.
Analysts are quick to attribute the development to two factors. One, it is their considered opinion that since the 2023 election is the first time since 1999 that the electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) would be stamping its feet on the use of electronic means to vote and transmit election results, politicians would naturally be gripped with fear and anxiety. They equally attribute the development to the fact that it is also the first time since 1999 that Nigerians would be going to the polls with three major political parties fielding presidential candidates for them to choose from; it has always been a two-party horse race.
It is equally their view that the entrance of the third political party, in this case, the Labour Party (LP), has not only increased the existing choices for the electorate but it has also balkanized and disorganised the support base of the former two main political parties, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), such that their candidates and supporters now fret over the mere mention of LP.
Close watchers of political events in Nigeria over the years are of the view that the foregoing developments have forced some politicians to embark on some subterranean moves to compromise the outcome of the 2023 general elections at all cost. They are no longer comfortable with the turnout of events, particularly the INEC’s tenacious resolve and continuous insistence on deployment of modern technology in the conduct of the elections.
These desperate, subterranean and nocturnal moves to compromise the 2023 elections were, last week, made clear when the Chief of Defence Staff, Lt-Gen. Lucky Irabor told journalists that there was pressure on the military by some politicians to compromise the outcome of the elections. Gen Irabor’s statement confirmed insinuations in many quarters in the last two months that some politicians were surreptitiously plotting and perfecting strategies to rig the elections.
Prior to the revelation by the Army boss, the Coalition of the United Political Parties (CUPP), through its spokesman, Ikenga Ugochinyere, had alerted Nigerians to the plot by some politicians to compromise the outcome of the 2023 elections. Ugochinyere and his group had alleged that the strategy was to use members of the National Assembly to frame up the INEC chairman, Prof Mahmood Yakubu, and have him removed and replaced eventually by the President. He alleged that the plot was being hatched against Prof Yakubu for insisting that technology would be deployed in the conduct of the elections. Ugochinyere and his group, as well as many other well meaning Nigerians and groups including those in the Diaspora, were known to have threatened thunder and brimstone if anything untoward should happen to the INEC boss.
The INEC boss had also raised the alarm about the plot by some elements to frame him up, with the final intention of denting his image so that the President would remove him and replace him with another person who would, perhaps, be pliable enough to succumb to the pressure not to deploy technology in the conduct of the 2023 elections.
However, the thinking in many quarters is that having failed to achieve their aim of removing Yakubu and replacing him with somebody who would be malleable enough to do their bidding, and having come to the sad reality that the use of Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and other electronic means are inevitable, they are shifting their pressure to the security agents, including the military.
The questions on the lips of many Nigerians at present are: who wants the 2023 general elections compromised? Why do they want the elections compromised? How can other security agents like the police remain resolute and committed to carrying out their constitutional duties, knowing that they are to serve the public and not personal or individual interest, just as the military, as an institution, wants Nigerians to believe that it would do the same? What should ordinary Nigerians do to ensure that the plots by some politicians to compromise the election are foiled even before they get to the execution stage as the CUPP and the military have demonstrated? These and many others are questions agitating the minds of many Nigerians as the country goes into the 2023 general election in less than three months’ time from now.
But, there are those who believe that Nigerians may not search too far to find answers to who wants to compromise the elections if the recent utterances by the chairman of the APC, Alhaji Abubakar Adamu, and the party’s presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, were anything to go by.
It is their belief that the opposition to the use of BVAS for the election by Adamu and Tinubu gave them out as among those who want to compromise the process. Adamu was alleged to have told INEC that Nigeria was not ripe enough to use BVAS and INEC Results Viewing Portal (IReV) in the conduct of the 2023 election, insisting that Nigeria does not have the telecommunication infrastructure required to use the system. He advocated for the usual manual methods used in the previous general elections. “Our concern is: how ready are we to deploy some of these technologies as regards transmission? To transmit results to every part of Nigeria, I am not sure that the network covers it. I know that even in Abuja, there is no network and we have from now till February when there is no electricity in substantial parts of the country,” he said.
Tinubu was also quoted to have told his Chatham House audience in far away London that the INEC chairman was yet to assure Nigerians of the reliability and credibility of electronic transmission of results during the election. In reaction, the electoral body was also reported to have tackled the APC presidential candidate for questioning the credibility of BVAS and result viewing portal. Tinubu at Chatham House was reported to have said: “INEC is yet to assure Nigerians that electronic transmission is reliable, dependable, and assuring.” Reacting, INEC has wondered why the technology that has been used in Anambra, Ekiti and Osun states governorship elections, with high performance and success rate as could be deduced from the outcomes of those elections, was still being questioned by Tinubu.
Those who are accusing Tinubu of being in the league of those that want to compromise the 2023 election also pointed to the trending viral video in the social media, where the APC candidate was addressing a select audience in London, telling them that politics is war and that they should do everything possible to ensure that they win the election. He was quoted in the video to have said: “Political power is not going to be served in restaurants; it is not served a la carte. This is what we are doing; it is being determined to do it at all costs. Fight for it, grab it, snatch it and run with it.” Such a statement, many Nigerians believe, amounts to encouraging thuggery and violence during election; which would ultimately lead to rigging and election compromise.
Lending his voice to the conversation, the former Secretary General of the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG), Chief Frank Kokori, dismissed the statement credited to the CDS that the military was under pressure to compromise the 2023 election, saying it was nothing new. “Although they have even denied the statement, saying that the media misinterpreted them, it only shows that there is pressure on the institution actually. However, all administrations have always said there are pressures. The question should be who is pressuring them? They don’t say that; they only tell you that some people are pressuring them. I think the media should ask them to mention those that are pressuring them,” he said.
He, however, noted that politicians had always rigged elections in the past and they would still want to compromise the 2023 elections if given the opportunity, but expressed confidence that with the new innovation like the use of BVAS, they would all be utterly disappointed. “Are you not in Nigeria? Nigeria is a very corrupt country. The people who have been winning elections have always rigged at all levels – state and federal. So, the question of who wants to compromise the 2023 elections should not arise because it is obvious that politicians would want to do that if given the chance.
“As for the local government elections, the rigging is 100 percent; it is the worst. The ruling party will just write the results at the state headquarters of the electoral body to favour them excluding other parties. INEC is a bit more credible than the state electoral bodies,” he added.
He also advised Nigerians to have confidence in the election since the electoral umpire has assured Nigerians that they would follow the 2022 Electoral Act to the letter. “Comparatively, INEC will deliver free and fair elections. There will be surprises in many places because it will not be like before when people will just go and write results in their favour. This time around, there is no incidence form, so every result must go through the BVAS. So, why are Nigerians fretting? The INEC chairman has not told Nigerians that anybody was pressuring him. So let’s have confidence in the process because there is every indication that the 2023 election will be free, fair and credible,” he submitted.
President of the Middle Belt Forum (MBF) Dr. Pogu Bitrus urged all the security agencies to remain loyal to the Nigerian people and not to any individual, saying, “The institution, be it military, police or whatever, should be strong, so that they will not be manipulated because they are supposed to serve the interest of the nation and not the interest of individuals. We are urging the politicians to stop influencing our security agents or even the INEC officials, so that we can have a stable and strong democratic process that all of us can be proud of; a process that will make the international community see us as credible in the comity of nations,” he stated.
Also, the president of Arewa Youths Consultative Forum, Alhaji Yerima Shettima, expressed confidence in the INEC, saying “It is obvious that INEC is well prepared for this election, and I am sure the election cannot be compromised if INEC as the electoral umpire is not compromised. We insist that this democracy must be sustained because the country is at a very fragile stage. Politicians or whoever should be mindful of any kind of compromise because Nigerians are determined to take their destiny in their hands. So, I hope they will not compromise this election because INEC has actually demonstrated its willingness and readiness for this election; all it needs is the support of Nigerians, including the security agencies. And as such, we must be seen to be very positive and encourage them to do the right thing,” he stated.