From Romanus Ugwu, Abuja
For followers of events in the country since the flag off of the campaigns ahead of next year’s general election, there is no doubt about the growing tension and anxiety in the nation. Though characteristic of Nigeria at a time like this but the signs in the build up to 2023 poll are getting more scary even when the election is still about four months away.
But beyond every other factor, the greatest challenge to the forthcoming election is the insecurity to the lives and property of Nigerians. For many critical observers, the emerging international dimension to the security situation has become a major cause for concern and further puts a question mark on the 2023 poll.
Just last week, precisely on Sunday, October 23, the United States government warned that there was a high risk of terror attacks in Nigeria, particularly the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
The US Embassy Abuja, in a security alert disclosed that targets for the attacks includes government buildings, places of worship, schools, markets, shopping malls, hotels, bars, restaurants, athletic gatherings, transport terminals, law enforcement facilities, and international organisations.
Also, following reports by the United States and the United Kingdom that there is an elevated risk of terror attacks in Nigeria, Canada and Australia have warned their citizens to stay alert in the country.
Surprisingly, the US, UK and others did not stop at the issuance of such frightening security reports but moved steps further in evacuating their citizens, especially from the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja to home countries, probably to underscore the magnitude of the threat confronting next year’s elections.
However, the precarious security reports were particular about possible terrorist attacks on Abuja even though other states will catch cold considering that the FCT is the political headquarters of the country.
As a result, many organizations are taking precautions including suspending operations to forestall any untoward situation.
Many concerned Nigerians and major stakeholders are already pressing the panic button over the possibility of the poll holding next year. In the estimation of some pessimists, the poll is not only facing imminent security threat but seems to be hanging in the balance.
Added to the general insecurity situation is the increasing spate of attacks unleashed on party supporters during campaign rallies.
There is also the disturbing level of political intolerance which manifests by the outright denials of the opposition parties’ access to public facilities for rallies with flimsy reasons, by some state governments.
Curiously, in almost all the geopolitical zones, the hostile and intolerant political situation is the same. The deliberate attacks hoodlums and political thugs continue to unleash on the opposition have been on the rise with little or no measure in place to curtail them.
In the South East, particularly in Enugu and Ebonyi States, for example, hoodlums believed to be political thugs had repeatedly attacked Labour Party meetings and rallies, and even burnt vehicles belonging to members of the party, leaving them to nurse injuries of daring to challenge the ruling party in the states.
In the Southwest, specifically in Oyo State, some supporters of the All Progressives Congress (APC), were reportedly injured in Ibadan during a campaign rally by the party recently when some hoodlums in some vehicles allegedly launched sporadic attacks on the crowd.
According to available reports, the opposition party in the state had staged a rally from their secretariat at Oke Ado area of Ibadan and were moving towards Oje area when the hoodlums unleashed mayhem on the defenceless party supporters. The opposition parties in Lagos State were not also immune from such attacks from the supporters of the ruling party.
The dangerous attack trends have equally spread to Kaduna State in the North West where political thugs gradually assuming the status of agents and weapons of mass destruction, have equally attacked the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential campaign rally recently, allegedly maiming some people and disrupting campaign activities.
But, the situation seems to be worse in Zamfara State, where hoodlums and even the governor have displayed extreme intolerance to opposition, by coming hard on other party supporters, especially the PDP. They even went as far as reprehensibly clamping down on media outfits for having the effrontery to report the activities of the opposition parties in the state.
The orgy of violence that has characterised the campaign rallies in this political dispensation both before and after the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) lifted ban on the campaign activities has ostensibly contributed in heightening the morbid apprehension of Nigerians on the likelihood of the elections holding.
The situation has become that bad that former Foreign Affairs Minister, Bolaji Akinyemi, recently warned the political parties to suspend their campaigns, especially over the intelligence issued by the international community.
Akinyemi, who predicated his appeals to the parties on the security alerts from the USA and the UK, further argued that halting the campaigns would be in the national interest.
He said: “These are inconvenient times for Nigeria because it is election time and campaigns have started. All these one-million-man marches and the like are soft targets for terrorists. We should stop talking about rights when there is an existential danger to the republic. The national security adviser, after getting clearance from Mr President, should read the riot act to these politicians.
“I am not interested in your rights to assemble if you are presenting a soft target to terrorists. The Americans have warned you about what is about to happen and you are insisting it is your right to have all these one-million-man marches and so on. It is the question of balancing rights with responsibility.
“There are not enough policemen to protect you. Do not create situations that further stretch the ability of the security forces”, Akinyemi warned.
Responding to the calls for suspension of campaign activities over security threats, APC spokesperson, Felix Morka said: “We are not yet in that full-blown campaign mood. So, there is nothing to suspend. Though the party will be cautious, vigilant and carry out whatever engagement that needs to be conducted in close collaboration with the security agencies, we will ensure that we have complete control of any space we are carrying out any campaign.”
Providentially, the apprehensions apparently have nothing to do with the readiness and capacity of the electoral commission, INEC, performing its statutory responsibility, but the disturbing security threats becoming bold handwriting on the wall, against the poll.
The commission and other major stakeholders like the security agencies, politicians, observers and ultimately the international community, are united in repeatedly warning that the security alarms, sounding louder daily, pose a serious threat to next year’s election.
Interestingly, one month after lifting the ban on the campaign activities, the parties, still very lukewarm to press acceleration pedal on their campaigns, are yet nowhere near hitting their peaks. Instead of the campaign activities increasing in geometrical progression, there are rather situations of anomie and uncertainty.
Surprisingly, not even the ruling party, the APC that hitherto promised to hit the ground running, was understandably able to meet the expectations of supporters and many Nigerians.
The dull campaign moments have nothing to do with either the internal crisis rocking many of the political parties or the endless complaints of difficult economic quagmire bedevilling the country.
To underscore the gravity of the security threat, National Security Adviser (NSA), Babagana Mungono, warned that the violent dimensions of electioneering campaigns, characterised by attacks on campaign rallies, campaign offices and uncomplimentary remarks, uncouth utterances among politicians, pose serious threat to the elections.
While commenting on the delicate nature of the situation confronting the polls, the NSA said: “I commend the tireless efforts of all security agencies in maintaining peace and order during the ongoing electioneering campaigns across the States.”
He added: “However, the violent dimensions of electioneering campaigns which characterizes attacks on campaign rallies, political campaign offices as well as passing of uncomplimentary remarks and uncouth utterances among politicians recently witnessed in some states signal potential threats to the smooth conduct of the forthcoming elections in February, 2023.
“Accordingly, while security agencies strategize new measures to counter the rising wave of violence in the polity, the second phase of the signing of ‘Peace Accord’, by the National Peace Committee (NPC) scheduled for January, 2023, will be fruitful in deescalating the violent trend.
“I commend Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) members for their immense contributions on the ongoing review of the security code of conduct and rules of engagement, to guide security operations in the upcoming election.”
The NSA hinged his observations and comments on the complaints from the chairman of INEC, Mahmood Yakubu, who recently expressed deep concerns over the threat of negative mobilisation, incitement and violence during the electioneering campaign by the political parties posed on the 2023 polls.
According to him; “Beyond vote buying, there must also be decisive action against negative mobilisation, incitement and violence during the electioneering campaign. It is over a month since the commencement of campaigns by political parties, yet the incidents of physical attacks on supporters and destruction of campaign materials across the country is worrisome.
“At our consultative meeting with leaders of political parties in Nigeria, they also complained about denial of access to public facilities and exorbitant charges in some states for the use of such facilities for the dissemination of their campaign materials, messages and rallies. These attacks and denials are a violation of the Electoral Act 2022 and ominous signs of what will follow as the campaigns enter critical stages.
“They may also be a prelude to violence on Election Day and beyond. We should tackle the smoke before it snowballs into a major inferno. The effective enforcement of our electoral law is the best way to deal with the menace. We should work together to ensure the arrest and prosecution of violators of the provisions of especially Sections 92 – 93 of the Electoral Act 2022,” he charged the security agents.
In what looked like complicating the already frightening situation, the Inspector General of Police (IGP), Usman Alkali Baba, had already ordered the heads of police formations across the country to fortify securities around their areas, even as he played down the intelligence from the international community.
The IGP however moved a step further by ordering the FCT Commissioner of Police, heads of tactical squads, and other State Command CPs to restrategise security management within their jurisdictions. He also promised to continue to provide them with the required support, logistics, and deployments necessary to provide safety to all and sundry in the country.
“We will begin immediate counter-terrorism incident simulation exercise codenamed ‘Operation Darkin Gaggawa’. The police force hereby reassures Nigerians, all other residents and visitors in the country that it will effectively review the US Embassy in Abuja’s security advisory issued recently,” IGP however, assured in a statement issued by the Force spokesperson, Olumuyiwa Adejobi.
Confirming the anxieties in the minds of the politicians and the political parties, former National Publicity Secretary of the APC, Yekini Nabena, admitted, in a chat with Daily Sun, that insecurity poses the biggest threat to next year’s general elections.
His words: “I don’t have any fear about the elections, but my concern is what happens before and after the polls. The authenticity of the security intelligence from the US and UK on the possibility of terrorists attacking close to the election is my main fear. You don’t dismiss such a report coming from the CIA which has strong intelligence on terrorism activities.
“So, for them to issue such a damning intelligence report, there must be some iota of authenticity in it. It might not come immediately as we expected it but my fear is such an attack coming before or immediately after the elections. Again, now that we are in the custody of such a report, how do we deal with it and how do we manage it?
“If you can also remember, such a report came in 2015 during the election between Goodluck and Buhari. It was only God that touched Jonathan which saved the situation. So, how we deal with the report is my main fear. APC winning the election is already given, but that is whether the security threat will allow the election to hold,” he confessed.
But, notwithstanding the precarious nature of the security situation, the message of hope that came from President Buhari, urging Nigerians to be calm but vigilant amid the travel advisory by several Western countries may be the desperately needed soothing balm to guarantee the polls.
Buhari, in a statement issued by his spokesperson, Garba Shehu, advised “the nation’s security establishment and entire citizens to continue being vigilant and careful with security, warning that it is however important to avoid panic.”
He added: “Indeed, the UK and US advice to their respective citizens for travel contain the same warning. Unfortunately, terror is a reality the world over. However, it does not mean an attack in Abuja is imminent. Since the July prison raid, security measures have been reinforced in and around the FCT. Heightened monitoring and interception of terrorist communications ensure potential threats are caught further upstream.
“Attacks are foiled. Security agents are proactively rooting out threats to keep citizens safe – much of their work unseen and necessarily confidential. Nigerians’ safety remains the highest priority of the government. Security services are working around the clock to keep harm at bay.
“Given the on-going efforts on the part of the military and other security and intelligence agencies with the active support of the civilian population, the nation will emerge victorious against the current challenges facing it,” Buhari assured.