… Make anticipatory action, plans to prevent flood disaster impact on Nigerians
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the governors of the 30 flood-prone states have been advised to design anticipatory action plans that will help prevent tragic impact of flood disaster in the country.
Following the devastating flood that claimed over 200 lives in Niger State, Country Director, GoalPrime Organisation, Professor Christopher Chinedumuije, said since flood is predictable it’s impact is equally preventable through proactive anticipatory action plans.
Chinedumuije, a professor of Disaster Management and Humanitarian Studies, noted that despite the fact that the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) have pre-warned of heavy flooding in 30 states in the country but regrettably no anticipatory plans were made to mitigate the effect of the disaster ahead of time -except for Adamawa where the UN and Partners have put an Anticipatory Action and Response Mechanism in place.
While urging President Tinubu and the governors of the affected 30 states to design and domesticate policy plans on disaster management, Chinedumuije said the tragic impact of the flood in Niger was clearly avoidable, “This is not just a humanitarian catastrophe — it is, regrettably, a stark reflection of our failure as a nation to act ahead of known risks.”
He added that “For over a decade, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) have consistently issued Seasonal Climate Predictions (SCPs) and Annual Flood Outlooks, clearly identifying the states and communities vulnerable to flood events. These forecasts are not speculative; they are science-based and globally accepted early warning systems.
“Yet, year after year, we fail to act until lives are lost, livelihoods are destroyed, and national sympathy is exhausted,” he stated.
The 30 states officially identified by NiMet as flood-prone in 2025 are Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, Zamfara, urging the leadership of the affected states to be on alert and plan ahead.
Chinedumuije said anticipatory action is not a luxury but a necessity, advising “Mr. President and Governors of States-at-Risk, these 30 states must immediately activate anticipatory action plans. We can no longer afford a reactive culture. Lives are being lost to disasters we have the tools to forecast and mitigate.”
According to him, Tinubu and the governors of the identified states must convene a state-Level emergency flood preparedness summit with all relevant actors, including SEMAs, LGAs, traditional rulers, NGOs, and community leaders; update and activate anticipatory action plans for at-risk LGAs; preposition emergency response materials — food, shelter kits, mobile health units, and strengthen early warning systems through radio, town criers, and digital channels.
The GoalPrime boss added that community actors must be engaged in identifying evacuation routes, shelter points, and contingency plans, while efforts must be made to commence desilting and clearing of drainage channels, rivers, and waterways.
He advised these governments to secure budget lines dedicated to preparedness rather than post-disaster spending, concluding that “Mr. President and Governors of States-at-Risk are to understand that the flood warnings are not abstract future threats — they are here and real. What is left is our action or inaction.”
FULL TEXT
AN OPEN LETTER
To: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR
And The Governors of Flood-Prone States in Nigeria
ON THE NIGER STATE FLOOD TRAGEDY AND THE URGENT NEED FOR ANTICIPATORY ACTION PLANS ACROSS FLOOD-RISK STATES
Your Excellency, Mr. President,
Your Excellencies, the Executive Governors of the 30 Flood-Prone States,
With a heart weighed by grief and deep national concern, I write to you regarding the recent flood disaster in Niger State, where over 200 lives were lost, about 500 missing and over 3000 households displaced in Mokwa Local Government Area and surrounding communities. This tragic event has rendered thousands homeless, destroyed farmlands, submerged homes, and left families in mourning and despair.
This is not just a humanitarian catastrophe — it is, regrettably, a stark reflection of our failure as a nation to act ahead of known risks. For over a decade, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) have consistently issued Seasonal Climate Predictions (SCPs) and Annual Flood Outlooks, clearly identifying the states and communities vulnerable to flood events. These forecasts are not speculative; they are science-based and globally accepted early warning systems.
Yet, year after year, we fail to act until lives are lost, livelihoods are destroyed, and national sympathy is exhausted.
THE URGENT REALITY: 30 STATES AT IMMINENT RISK
The following states have been officially identified by NiMet as flood-prone in 2025 and must therefore be on high alert:
Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, Zamfara
Mr. President and Governors of States-at-Risk, these 30 states must immediately activate anticipatory action plans. We can no longer afford a reactive culture. Lives are being lost to disasters we have the tools to forecast and mitigate.
WHAT MUST BE DONE — NOW
Every at-risk state highlighted must:
***1. Convene a State-Level Emergency Flood Preparedness Summit with all relevant actors, including SEMAs, LGAs, traditional rulers, NGOs, and community leaders
***2. Update and activate anticipatory action plans for at-risk LGAs
***3. Preposition emergency response materials — food, shelter kits, mobile health units
***4. Strengthen early warning systems through radio, town criers, and digital channels
***5. Engage community actors in identifying evacuation routes, shelter points, and contingency plans
***6. Commence desilting and clearing of drainage channels, rivers, and waterways
***7. Secure budget lines dedicated to preparedness rather than post-disaster spending
“Let us remember that anticipatory action is not a luxury — it is a necessity.”
THE CATASTROPHIC COST OF INACTION
If we do not act decisively and immediately:
***1. More mass deaths will occur in the coming weeks
***2. Disease outbreaks will follow flood events due to contaminated water and inadequate sanitation
***3. Thousands of children will drop out of school as education infrastructure is submerged or repurposed for IDP shelters
***4. Nigeria’s food insecurity will worsen as farms are washed away
***5. Economic shocks at state and national levels will follow, especially in agriculture and informal markets
***6. Erosion of public trust in government will deepen as citizens question our ability to protect them
Mr. President and Governors of States-at-Risk, the flood warnings are not abstract future threats — they are here and real. What is left is our action or inaction.
Kindly note that Governance is not measured by how many condolence messages are sent, but by how many tragedies are prevented. The people of Niger State did not die because the flood was unexpected — they died because the state was unprepared.
You were elected to protect the lives and wellbeing of Nigerians. There is no greater test of that mandate than in times of crisis.
Kindly also be reminded that:
> “A government that waits for disaster to happen before it acts has already failed its people. True leadership is measured not by condolence visits after tragedy, but by courageous action that prevents it.”
Mr. President, Your Excellencies — let us not mourn avoidable deaths again this year. Let Niger State be the final warning, not the first chapter.
Let us act — now, with urgency, with purpose, and with humanity.
Sincerely,
Professor Christopher Chinedumuije
Professor of Disaster Management & Humanitarian Studies
June 4, 2025