By Abel Leonard, Lafia

As Nasarawa State inches closer to the 2027 governorship election, the political atmosphere is charged with uncertainty, anticipation, and realignment.

The major contenders — Senator Ahmed Aliyu Wadada, Dr. David Ombugadu, Dr. Faisal Shuaib, and a few other rising figures — are under increasing scrutiny as voters and stakeholders begin to ask hard questions: who can truly be trusted to deliver? And who might betray public confidence for political convenience?

This unfolding drama cuts across the three major political forces in the state — the All Progressives Congress (APC), the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and the Social Democratic Party (SDP). The race is shaping into more than just a contest of personalities; it is becoming a litmus test for credibility, loyalty, and the ability to forge strategic alliances that will resonate with the increasingly discerning electorate.

Wadada and the Temptation of Return

Senator Ahmed Wadada of the SDP remains one of the most popular politicians in Nasarawa State today. His strong grassroots base, articulate representation in the Senate, and outsider status after defecting from APC to SDP gave him a unique appeal in 2023. However, speculation is rife that he is considering a return to the APC — a move that, if true, could either bolster or break his image.

While his relationship with APC powerbrokers, including State Chairman Dr. Aliyu Bello, suggests a smooth re-entry path, many fear it could erode the “independent” brand that earned him support in the last election. Analysts warn that such a move could be seen as betrayal by his core supporters who voted for a break from the political status quo. Whether Wadada betrays his current base or delivers a fresh political narrative remains to be seen.

Ombugadu: Credibility Crisis or Political Resilience?

Dr. David Ombugadu, the PDP candidate in the disputed 2023 elections, is still a household name across Nasarawa. Many of his supporters believe he won that election “but was denied.” However, recent allegations of N3 billion to compromise his legal challenge may have cast a shadow over his integrity. Though unproven, but his loyalists are not deterred by the allegations but rooted and calling for him to contest again for the governorship seat.

Analysts are still of the opinion that Ombugadu retains significant political capital, particularly among youths and Christian communities in the state. His challenge, however, is to cleanse the stains of 2023, rebuild public trust, and prove he remains a candidate who can deliver and not one who will capitulate under pressure.

Dr. Faisal Shuaib: The Technocrat’s Dilemma

Former NPHCDA Executive Director, Dr. Faisal Shuaib, has emerged as a fresh and credible voice within the APC. Admired for his role in Nigeria’s vaccination campaigns and humanitarian work, Faisal is seen as a symbol of competence and integrity.

However, he faces a crucial test: can a technocrat without deep-rooted political structures survive the murky waters of Nasarawa politics? His chances depend on whether key APC power blocs see in him a unifying figure or an outsider who lacks the tools to win internal party battles. Many believe Faisal can deliver if backed early enough by the right political machinery, but without it, he may fade into the background.

APC’s Expanding Field: Allies or Adversaries?

Beyond Faisal, the APC field includes heavyweights like former IGP Mohammed Adamu, who commands federal influence but lacks grassroots presence; Dr. Musa Ahmed Muhammad, the Accountant-General with financial ties to the state structure; M.S. Haruna, a former NASENI boss seen as a dark horse; and Barr. Muhammed Abdullahi, a former minister with growing ambitions — albeit dogged by questions over his political loyalty.

Newly added to this mix is Muhammed Maikaya, a former banker and philanthropist, who is quietly building momentum. Maikaya is respected in Nasarawa South and Nasarawa North for his consistent empowerment programmes and accessible style. He is one of the few who combines political experience, grassroots reach, and cross-zonal appeal — a factor that could make him a compromise candidate in a divided APC.

The APC may appear strong with its incumbency advantage, but the multiplicity of aspirants could lead to internal fractures. The key question is: who among them will form alliances, who will sabotage the process, and who will stay true to the party’s unity?

The PDP’s Identity Crisis

The PDP is still recovering from the psychological blow of the 2023 defeat. While Ombugadu remains its strongest figure, murmurs within the party suggest there is a search for a cleaner, more unifying alternative — especially if Ombugadu decides to contest for senate.

If Barr. Abdullahi defects from the APC to PDP, he could be considered as a fresh face, but his political ambiguity has made many within both parties cautious. The PDP’s ability to field a candidate who is both popular and untainted may determine its fate in 2027.

Indigeneity and the Rising Politics of Identity

One explosive fault line in the coming election is the question of “indigeneity.” A growing segment of the electorate is demanding that only ‘true indigenes’ — those with ancestral roots in Nasarawa — should govern. While the state has largely enjoyed ethnic harmony, this debate threatens to introduce new tensions.

Candidates with perceived dual heritage or outsider labels may face resistance in critical areas like Karu, Keffi, and Lafia. Political parties must now balance merit with ethnic and communal sensitivities — or risk alienating key voter blocs.

A More Sophisticated Electorate

Today’s voter in Nasarawa is not the same as in 2015 or 2019. There is a marked shift toward competence, service record, and grassroots engagement. Dr. Musa Ibrahim, a political science lecturer at Nasarawa State University, noted:

“The electorate is increasingly valuing substance over slogans. Youths especially are tired of empty promises they want real solutions to insecurity, jobs, and access to healthcare.”

While ethnic and religious considerations will still factor into decisions, the trend indicates that the people are more prepared to ask tough questions — and vote based on performance rather than patronage.

Who Will Blink First?

As alignments and betrayals play out behind the scenes, the 2027 governorship race in Nasarawa will be a referendum on integrity, consistency, and the will to serve. Each contender must now prove whether they are ready to deliver the future — or merely plotting for personal gain.

The political chessboard is still shifting. Will Wadada return to APC or hold the third-force line? Will Ombugadu regain credibility or be replaced? Can Faisal overcome political odds to rise? Will APC manage its internal wranglings without implosion?

Nasarawa awaits — watching, questioning, and preparing