By Chukwudi Nweje
A legal practitioner, Adebayo Adeolu has said that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, judging from his experiences and what he has gone through right from the days of June 12, 1993 struggle, is unarguably a master strategist when it comes to the game of politics.
In this interview, Adeolu, who is also a political and public affairs analyst, spoke on Tinubu’s emergence as the sixth president of Nigeria since the return of democracy in 1999, the removal of fuel subsidy and the suspension of the former Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Godwin Emefiele among other national issues.
Nigeria just celebrated the 30th anniversary of the annulment of the June 12, 1993, presidential election, now observed as Democracy Day. Why should June 12 be celebrated as Democracy Day? What lessons do you think we have learnt from that experience looking at the electoral processes since 1993?
This is the 30th anniversary of the annulment of the best democratic election conducted in Nigeria by the military government of General Ibrahim Babangida. The election has continued to send echoes of an injustice done to Nigeria, and a great leader, in the person of Chief MKO Abiola, who was denied his mandate, right and destiny, to rule Nigeria. If we talk about civil rule, the January 15, 1966 coup would have been the day that civilians were denied the electoral process, but because that was a parliamentary system and regional system of government, we will not call it democracy day. And because we are talking of the democratic system which Nigeria soon adopted after the civil war, June 12 will be regarded as Democracy Day.
The lesson learnt is the wisdom to manage conflict resolutions. How did we manage and resolve the crisis that emanated from the cancellation and violence that erupted? Many of the so-called political leaders then were inexperienced. Political actors then and their followers showed inexperience in how to manage the disagreements and conflicts, and they resorted to violence. The National Democratic Coalition (NADECO), Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG), the labour movement, and human rights groups, among others, all went for confrontations, and we ended up with an interim government and another military government headed by General Sani Abacha. Abacha offered to correct all the wrongs of the cancellation of the election by paying all the expenses incurred by Abiola during the election. He promised to hand over the government when he leaves office.
However, the opposition mismanaged everything by using confrontation and making the government ungovernable; a development that escalated the crisis. It was a rough time but there were beneficiaries who learnt great lessons. One of them was Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu who while in exile reflected on all his actions and soon became a kingmaker and master strategist in politics.
What did Tinubu learn from the fallout of the June 12, 1993 presidential election?
He learnt never to fight or challenge the man holding the power or the sitting government of the day. This helped him in life to emerge as President of Nigeria. Although it was a mix of the good, the bad, and the ugly in the last eight years in Nigeria, Tinubu kept a low profile and made no comments on Buhari’s administration. He learnt the survival strategy from General Sani Abacha.
The President has taken some tough decisions like the subsidy removal, what is your reaction to that?
President Tinubu has proved to both his detractors and his supporters that he is up to the task of presiding over the affairs of Nigeria, and that he is ready for the job by immediately declaring that the fuel subsidy was over. This statement immediately triggered a change in the prices of petroleum products by almost 200 per cent. However, what do we mean by subsidy? Firstly, a government creates subsidies for natural minerals it has in abundance, in the case of Nigeria, crude oil. The government also has the duty to upgrade it as a lucrative business by building refineries to refine the crude into finished products like petrol, diesel, kerosene, and jet A1 used in the aviation industry for aircraft. The capacity of the refineries can also bring in by-products like grease and engine oil, among others.
The word subsidy can be explained in a very simple way. A government can only create a subsidy when it has working and functional refineries. This means that without the refineries you can’t have subsidies. This means that President Tinubu needs to swing into immediate action to get the refineries rehabilitated and in working condition.
In Nigeria, we have three old refineries that can be serviced and overhauled to serve the country, alongside the new Dangote Federal Government-supported refinery. Once we fix all these refineries, Nigeria will pick up economically and the drain pipe that has been killing the country would stop, as the importation of refined products would end.
Many doomsday advocates didn’t expect that May 29, 2023, would be a reality. They cited the 1983 and 1993 experiences of Chief Obafemi Awolowo and MKO Abiola, respectively, to suggest that the North would not support a power shift to the South West. What are your thoughts on that?
President Tinubu seems to be a man of destiny. He came from obscurity and an adverse upbringing and background like many great men of history, and totally reinvented himself. His experiences in life can almost be described as a fairy tale; something like Cinderella and her fairy Godmother because he too had a godmother in the person of Alhaja Abibat Mogaji, who helped him in many ways to get to his destined position. However, I did not expect President Buhari to betray him. Even though Buhari had tested him in many ways and pushed him to the wall, he just watched patiently knowing that the great man from Daura, Katsina State will not betray him. Buhari did not disappoint at last; he allowed a smooth transition. From the time Buhari recognized the June 12 election and Democracy Day, he divided the South West. He knew the Yoruba have their own ways and strategy of doing things, and once Tinubu did not attempt to contest the 2019 election, Buhari was satisfied and pleased with him.
How do you think Tinubu was able to overcome the initial obstacles against his emergence as a presidential candidate?
The annulment of the June 12, 1993 election by the military government of Gen Ibrahim Babangida triggered off ripple effects all over the country, leading to riots, protests, strikes and crises in Nigeria. The lesson to be learnt about the events of yesterday is managing disagreements and crisis situations in a nation. The late Gen. Abacha taught many people across Nigeria, who are still alive today, the lessons of crisis management in government and how to negotiate dialogue with the political stakeholders on power sharing where there are disagreements.
President Tinubu learnt a great lesson from the events of the June 12 crisis and that turned him into a master strategist. He learnt not to challenge military leaders in a military government and not to challenge the seat of power and the man holding the power. The experience of government crackdown and his forced exit from Nigeria into exile gave him the opportunity to review his strategy on disagreements and crisis management on political issues and leadership positions in Nigeria.
When the crisis of the Fulani herdsmen was at its peak under President Buhari, and the Yoruba were angry, Tinubu remained silent despite the blames they heaped on him for not speaking out. He learnt from the mistake of Abiola when they forced Abiola to confront the military government. The President today has become a master strategist who, through the experience of 1993, has learnt how to govern, negotiate and manoeuvre his ways around the complex nature of Nigeria.
He has learnt that good leadership must be patient, humble, humane, and meek, and that the confrontational approach to political, economic, social and security problems is not by using force but by the application of wisdom.
What is your take on the suspension of Godwin Emefiele as Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor? Some said it is contrary to the CBN Act, do you share the same view?
The former CBN boss, Godwin Emefiele seemed to have got himself into big trouble by his treasonous action against the people of Nigeria and the state. The currency change that became a monumental failure had put the whole country into a cash squeeze never seen in the history of Nigeria. This CBN governor claimed he would change the currency so that politicians would not have access to huge amounts of money to rig the recently concluded presidential elections in Nigeria. However, he obviously had no clue as to the amount of cash Nigeria had in circulation for the operation of its cash and carry economy. How he became the leader of the Central Bank of Nigeria remains worrisome and questionable, because he did not seem to understand the workings of the economy in Nigeria. He, obviously, printed a few hundreds of millions of Naira notes which he seemed to have made available to the top government functionaries in Abuja. He touted a change of currency and kept collecting the old notes from bank customers through the banks, but did not release the new notes to the public and announced deadlines for the withdrawals of the old notes from circulation. This led to a serious cash crunch that almost grounded the economy of Nigeria. Petty traders suffered greatly, along with many Nigerians who were not involved in online banking. The whole exercise became a monumental failure that needed very serious investigation as the CBN finally reverted to the old Naira notes and currency that had been cancelled and withdrawn. In fact, the shocking surprise is that deputy directors and all the top managers had all kept mum making all top managers complicit. This action would make the CBN act ineffective and null and void because a great wrongful act had been carried out in the procedure of the CBN governor doing his job properly. So, the President is allowed to use emergency laws and presidential fiat as the matter is critical to the economy of Nigeria; the President can remove the CBN governor in the prevailing circumstance.
You have written a book on Obasanjo, Buhari and Abacha, some people may want to know what it is that you have with army generals; can you let us into that?
My books are what I have dubbed ‘The Presidential Series’ and they are focused on the dynamic military leaders that have emerged from Nigeria since Independence. These men are great heroes that have left their footprints in the sands of time in Nigeria’s history. They are not perfect; they have their flaws and weaknesses, but they are great men, who have been written out of history.