The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has expressed skepticism over the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) downgraded economic growth forecast for Nigeria in 2025, which was revised from 3.2 percent to 3.0 percent, citing the global oil slump as the primary reason.
The think tank argues that Nigeria’s economy is no longer predominantly reliant on oil, pointing to the substantial year-on-year growth in non-oil exports driven by ongoing diversification efforts and government policies. IMPI’s Chairman, Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju, further stated that the think tank was more aligned with the 7 percent growth forecast shared by Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun.
“In its economic outlook, the IMF downgraded Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.0 percent, down from 3.2 percent, while growth for 2026 was also revised downward by 0.3 percentage points to 2.7 percent. The IMF justified this forecast by citing projected lower global oil prices as a significant risk to the country’s fiscal and external balances. We wonder how a single factor can be responsible for the projected massive decline in the size of an economy, especially when Nigeria is moving away from its dependency on crude oil earnings,” the statement reads.
Contrasting this with the World Bank’s more optimistic outlook, which projects a 3.6 percent growth in 2025, IMPI argues that the federal government’s continued economic reforms and improvements in non-oil sectors like services, telecommunications, and information technology are more likely to drive Nigeria’s growth. The World Bank also notes expected improvements in inflation and business sentiment, bolstering its projections.
“However, the World Bank’s projection, on the other hand, offers a more optimistic view. In its report, the World Bank projected that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 3.6 percent in 2025, building on an estimated 3.4 percent expansion in 2024 and, thereafter, strengthening to 3.8 percent by 2027,” the statement highlighted.
IMPI also expressed its doubts about the IMF’s forecasts by pointing to discrepancies in past predictions for other countries, such as Mexico and Zambia. The think tank referenced the Mexican government’s rejection of IMF’s projection, with President Claudia Sheinbaum stating that the IMF’s figures were inconsistent with their own economic models.
“IMF’s GDP data discrepancies are not unique to Nigeria. At different times, its country members worldwide have had cause to dispute the body’s projections on various grounds,” the statement added.
IMPI pointed to Zambia as another example where the IMF’s projections were inaccurate during the 2008 global financial crisis. Despite the IMF’s prediction of economic hardship due to falling copper prices, Zambia’s economy showed resilience.
“We find comfort in the submission of the US Department of State, which described Nigeria as an economic miracle while commending the federal government’s ongoing reforms,” IMPI remarked.
On the issue of poverty, which both the World Bank and IMF have highlighted as a major concern for Nigeria, IMPI argued that the current federal administration is in a better position to tackle poverty than previous governments. It referenced Nigeria’s historical poverty levels, noting that despite economic growth and high oil prices, poverty was still endemic in the country prior to 2023.
“We acknowledge the concerns the World Bank and the IMF raised about the limited impact of the policies on reducing poverty among everyday Nigerians. But the truth is that before 2023, the country had been a site for endemic poverty,” the statement said.
Drawing attention to recent economic indicators, IMPI cited the Central Bank of Nigeria’s March 2025 economic report, which showed continued economic expansion across Nigeria, indicating the country’s trajectory towards a more resilient and diversified economy.
“In other words, if there is ever a possibility of reducing the number of Nigerians living below the poverty line, it is under the current federal administration,” IMPI stated.