Bola Tinubu, the strongman of Lagos politics (that’s the prevailing reality, Chief Bode George) and leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC), wants to be President of Nigeria. That, of course, is not breaking news. He actually went all the way to Aso Rock to tell that to President Muhammadu Buhari.
Tinubu comes along with a smoky profile around which is wrapped a multiplicity of narratives that are at best confounding, like no other in recent memory. But then this is Nigeria. And nobody knows that better than Tinubu.
It is morning yet in the realm of public declarations to run for President in 2023. Not surprisingly, therefore, the number of aspirants is growing by the day, each coming along with his prospects and impedimenta. As the days roll by, it will soon be time to commence serious interrogation of the profile and record of the aspirants, including those of the former Lagos State governor. For him in particular, tons of questions about his past and present are already raring to be asked. Interestingly, some of the nagging questions for him, which are already in the public domain, are curiously as simple as, What is your name? Where do you come from? How old are you? etcetera. Most other aspirants may not be as lucky to get such elementary questions.
Although the actual weight and hierarchical location of Tinubu’s title of “National Leader” of the APC remain fuzzy, even within the party, his place in history as one of the founding pillars of the APC is well established. That much about him is not contestable.
For whatever the ceremonial status of national leader of APC is worth, however, one thing seems to be emerging increasingly glaring in the party as it prepares for its conventions, that is that being the National Leader may not confer any advantage on he who wears the cap. Indeed, there are indications that the prospects for the National Leader may yet face early jeopardy. Only the future will tell. And the future is nigh.
Against the above backdrop then, the otherwise preposterous comment last week by Dr. Iyorchia Ayu, national chairman of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), that the APC leader, Senator Tinubu, may yet join the PDP, deserves a little bit more attention than should ordinarily be accorded to the statement.
The PDP chairman was speaking in a lighter mood, it must be noted. He took time to trace his relationship with Tinubu, which he said dates back to the Senate in 1992, when Tinubu and some others at the Senate then worked hard, as he put it, to see him, Ayu emerge president of the Senate. At that time, Ayu added with what seemed like a loaded emphasis, there was no Bourdillon Road (the present bastion of Tinubu’s imperial reign in Lagos) and so the friends met at an office somewhere in Ikoyi.
The prospect of Ayu’s forecast or wish that Tinubu may yet move over to PDP materializing may seem like what it seems at the moment, a joke.
To many who still ascribe principle and integrity to politicians, the National Leader of APC may be too big and steeped too deep in the APC to go anywhere else, no matter what. Certainly not to the PDP. What a wonderful world Nigerian politics will be if such principle obtains at any of its levels or circumstances.
Consider the following incident to refresh your mind on Nigerian politics, with reference to principle and fidelity. The dramatis personae may not be of the stature of national leader of a political party, but they are contemporary prime political actors all the same.
On October 6, 2021, in Anambra State, one month before the governorship election in the state, Onyebuchi Offor, “Honourable” member of the state House of Assembly, defected from his party, the PDP, and joined the APC. At that point in time, the APC and its candidate, Andy Uba, seemed to be having the upper hand in the heated contest, gauging from the noise decibel from the contending parties. At the time he defected to the APC, Offor was the Minority Leader of the House of Assembly, the leader of his party, the PDP. With his defection, he became one of those on whom the APC candidate hinged his hope of victory.
On November 6, 2021, the Anambra State governorship election held and the candidate of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) trounced the candidates of the other parties, including the PDP. On November 18, 2021, barely 12 days after the governorship election and 43 days after he defected, HONOURABLE Onyebuchi Offor, representing Ekwusigo Constituency at the Anambra State House of Assembly, strolled back to the PDP, the party he barely left one month ago to go fishing.
On the floor of the Anambra State House of Assembly where Mr. Offor took the stand to announce his triumphant return to his old party, he gave a very “cogent” reason for re-defecting. He said he had realized that his old party (PDP) was better than the new one (APC). Since he still knew his way back to where he just came out from one month ago, he simply returned home. And that was that.
The party he left and was returning to received him enthusiastically, while the latest one he left obviously understood why he had to leave. There was not even a mild reproach from anyone. Of course, “Honourable” Offor was not expected to own up to the fact that he was jumping off the APC because it did not win the big prize he thought it would win.
And what did the Speaker of the Anambra State House of Assembly, Mr. Uche Okafor, say to the straggler? He was quoted as clarifying for all who did not know it to know that it was the constitutional right of the lawmaker to defect from one political party to another, so he wished Offor well in his endeavours.
Every system defines its rules and norms. For Nigerian politics, the field has become something of a free trade zone and politicians have given themselves the freedom to move across party lines as their interest dictates. Such deviant movements barely attract worthwhile attention in the media or in the political terrain anymore. It has become accepted that, in Nigerian politics, politicians have the fundamental right of free movement across parties. No qualms. No compunction. As it transpired in Anambra State House in reference, so it happens all over the country.
The last time it was checked, the Nigerian politician, whether of the national leader variety or of any other nomenclature within the parties, is of a peculiar breed of characters to whom matters of principle rarely exert a pull.
It may be necessary therefore, to wait for the aftermath of the convention and primaries in APC as well as the primaries in PDP before it can be established for sure who can defect to another party and who is above defection. Until you get to such a juncture, you bet on a politician at your own peril. What may seem like a joke from Iyorchia Ayu on the matter of the APC leader jumping over to PDP or a PDP big wig jumping over to APGA or any of the other parties should, therefore, be kept in view at least. It is still a long way to 2023 and with the Nigerian politician, nothing is impossible.