After weeks of sabre rattling, Ukraine, an Eastern European country, has come under attack. Russia, the transcontinental country spanning eastern Europe and northern Asia, is the aggressor. Its President, Vladimir Putin, left no one in doubt that his country would attack Ukraine. The United States of America, the world’s watchdog, saw through the war mongering. That was why it was quick to advise its citizens to leave the potentially volatile territory before the descent of darkness. While the verbal war lasted, other proactive countries of the world read aright the writing on the wall. They also asked their citizens resident in Ukraine to leave. The United Kingdom and some other countries went the way of the United States. Their citizens left Ukraine at the right time. But Nigeria waited. It never advised its citizens in Ukraine. It went on as if nothing was at stake. Finally, Nigeria has had to bring back those of its citizens that escaped the crossfire at a very grave cost. That is vintage Nigeria. The country and its people have a bizarre code of knowing and leaving. But that is beside the point.
The issue at stake right now is the fire and brimstone raging in Ukraine. On one side of the divide is Russia, pro-Russian forces and Belarus. On the other side is Ukraine and its international supporters. Ukraine, the second largest country in Europe after Russia, is by no means an insignificant country. It has a lot in common with Russia, a country that it shares borders with in its east and north-east axis. But what clearly distinguishes the two is that Russia is a superpower. Ukraine is not.
Perhaps the two countries would have been good neighbours, if mutual suspicion did not creep in. In recent years, Ukraine has been indulging in a flirtatious relationship with the United States, Russia’s traditional and implacable foe. As if Ukraine’s pro-West disposition was not bad enough, it has, lately, been toying with the idea of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Such a move, going by the traditional alliances that certain countries of the world are involved in, constitutes a threat to Russia. The country that was the seat of the defunct Soviet Union with which the United States was always in contention would have none of that.
But Russia’s discomfort over the brewing alliance between Ukraine and NATO would not stop Ukraine. Like Russia, Ukraine was bound to protect its national interest. Consequently, Russia’s reservations over the development paled into insignificance. After years of bickering, the antagonism between the two neighbouring countries has finally boiled over, eventuating in the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
But it does appear that Ukraine was not prepared for the war that has come to its shores. Its military might does not come anywhere near what Russia can boast of. Just a few days after the outbreak of hostilities, the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, was appealing to the citizens of his country to take up arms and fight Russia. He also asked Ukrainians to make petrol bombs and deploy them as instruments of warfare against Russia.
As these go on, the world is watching. Countries sympathetic to Ukraine are talking tough. The United Kingdom is supplying arms to beleaguered Ukraine. The European Union and the United Nations are either imposing or threatening to impose sanctions on Russia. British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, has said Russia will be castrated economically through sanctions. President Joe Biden of the United States said Putin miscalculated by waging war against Ukraine. But Russia does not appear bothered by all this. It is steadily and relentlessly marching through Ukrainian territory.
So, how does Ukraine get out of this? Who will save the country from imminent annihilation? This is the crux of the matter. As events unfold with frenetic speed, what is certain at this point in time is that the combatants have their differing agenda. Russia, to all intents and purposes, wants to rein in its seemingly recalcitrant neighbour called Ukraine. It wants to abort the brewing rapprochement between Ukraine and the western world. It wants to ensure, particularly, that Ukraine does not become a part of NATO. Having levied war against Ukraine, Russia, obviously, wants to stop its neighbour in its tracks. As a matter of fact, Russia wants to remove President Zelenskyy from office and, possibly, install a puppet President and a pliant administration in Kyiv that would play along with Moscow. If it succeeds in doing that, it would, thenceforth, ensure that Ukraine becomes a vassal state that would always be beholden and subservient to Russia. Simply put, Russia wants to clip the wings of truculent Ukraine. Russia is, therefore, not likely to back down on its invasion of Ukraine until it achieves its desired objective. Even if it does not go the whole hog by ensuring regime change in Ukraine, it will, at least, weaken the Zelenskyy administration to the point of stupor.
So, how does Zelenskyy’s Ukraine circumvent this Russian plot? It is too early in the day to predict the way things will turn out in the course of the war. But it will not be out of place to suggest that the United States is also up to something sinister. The impression in some circles is that the United States is using Ukraine as a bait. America may have used Ukraine to provoke a war in which Russia will bare its fangs as it has done. With the war in place, the United States and its NATO allies could further provoke Russia into taking precipitate steps that could turn the tide against it. Should this happen, Russia may find itself fighting on all fronts. And if this is not well managed, it could considerably weaken Russia as a superpower.
But this is yet to happen. It is also possible that it may not happen after all. The situation at moment is that Ukraine is carrying its cross almost all alone. At what point will these countries beating the drums of war against Russia get involved militarily? Given international conventions governing wars and conflict situations, it would be difficult for any country to fight Ukraine’s war for it. There would always be caveats in the argument that would make direct military intervention by another country a remote possibility. This is where Ukraine’s case becomes truly precarious. Whichever way it turns out, the United States, certainly, has something up its sleeves in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Only time will unveil it.