The prediction by Olabode George, former national vice-chairman of the South-West zone of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), that there may be no election in 2023 is looking increasingly more likely now than ever. In an interview published in The Sun of Monday, May 17, 2021, George said that, if President Muhammadu Buhari did not sign the electoral bill that would approve the use of electronic voting in future elections, the planned 2023 elections could become an illusion. It is odd to imagine this but the countdown to the 2023 general election has begun.
Asked about his assessment of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), George said expressively: “If we do not go modern, then it is a joke. We are just groping in the dark because I know that the INEC chairman has been struggling. The President should sign the electoral bill; that is when you will know the facts. We need to start electronic voting and, in fact, there are young Nigerians who can write the software. Look at people in the riverine areas, during elections, they will wait in the collation centre in Abuja for results from those areas and you see INEC officials physically carrying results. If they don’t stop manual voting, someday it will blow up this country. Whatever they want to do, we have exactly two years to do it, otherwise it is a joke and waste of time.”
These views are not surprising. The rejection of the use of technology in the conduct of elections in Nigeria, accentuated by poor performance by INEC in elections prior to this time, has left many people with little faith in INEC as an independent election umpire.
The same sentiments expressed by George were also echoed last weekend by the League of Women Voters of Nigeria who denounced the failure, at the ongoing amendment of the Electoral Act, to endorse electronic transmission of election results. President of the league, Esther Uduehi, said in Abuja the exclusion, from the Electoral Act, of the electronic dissemination of results implied there would be no free, fair, and transparent elections in Nigeria. She was right. One adverse implication of that rejection is that election results could easily be manipulated by just about any election official who did not like the original results.
Uduehi said: “We call on the National Assembly to remember that the two last elections that INEC conducted in Edo and Ondo states were adjudged as one of the best elections reflecting the wishes of the people. It shows that electronic technology will really do something good for our democracy…We are saying that electronic transfer of election results is sacrosanct to free and fair election and it is sine qua non to getting a free and fair election.”
When George was asked about his views on the 2023 general election, he was adamant about what would happen if technology was not used to convey election results from polling stations to the collation centre in Abuja. He wondered: “Is this the way to do an election, in a modern day when people are physically carrying results from point A to point B?”
There are so many reasons to entertain the fear that the general election planned for 2023 may turn out to be a mirage. The entire country is gripped by worsening violence, callous killings, a marketplace of abductions and restlessness by citizens. Surely, these do not constitute an environment for the conduct of elections that would be seen at home and abroad as free, fair, transparent and credible.
Nigeria is a country on fire. It is a country in which terrorists and insurgents have bizarrely inaugurated a governor in a state that has an elected governor. How weird. The same terror groups have also taken over the administration of some local governments in the North. Do all these volatile events present a picture of a country that is preparing for flawless elections?
I would argue that growing criminal activities that fuel insecurity have given Nigeria the badge of an abnormal democracy with impaired functioning of state institutions. It is indeed a country that cannot save itself from terror groups, particularly the criminal activities of foreign nationals and mercenaries who infiltrated the country with the intent to make Nigeria’s bad situation worse.
We are facing huge challenges that have exposed the fragile nature of our national security apparatus. How many battles can our security agencies handle without running out of energy and weapons? Have they been able to confront and overwhelm fully armed bandits and kidnappers who have opened up many combat fronts or theatres of war, thus giving the impression to the international community that the country has no strong leadership capable of extinguishing the fire lit by these terror-inspired groups? Insecurity in Nigeria feeds instability that also leads to the degeneration of our national ethos.
Certainly, Nigeria is facing a crucible. How soon it is able to deal decisively with the current challenges will determine whether there would be elections in 2023 and indeed whether the country would remain united.
Former President Olusegun Obasanjo once said during the 2007 election that “Nigeria must show example to the rest of Africa and the world that we are capable of choosing our leaders peacefully and democratically.”
That was a fallacy that was obviously intended for consumption by overseas countries.
While international and national election observers believe that Nigerian voters have the unimpeded ability to choose their political leaders peacefully, fairly, and in an unrestrained manner, that view has always been undermined by fraudulent INEC officials and the rigging machinery of major political parties. It is paradoxical that officials who are appointed to oversee the conduct of free and fair elections are the ones first in line to damage regulations that are designed to support and sustain credible elections.
The continued use of manual voting system that undermines transparent elections has persisted because of failure by the National Assembly to amend the Electoral Act and to legislate the use of electronic voting system that would reduce significantly electoral malpractices such as inflation of votes cast during an election, open snatching of ballot boxes, illegal thumb-printing of ballot papers ahead of election, and other underhanded methods that are unknown in our election laws.
The level of interest shown by politicians in the 2023 presidential election has given the polls a note of unpredictability. This is understandable. The presidential election is clearly the most important and critical of all the elections scheduled for 2023. It will serve as the true test of Nigeria’s stability or volatility. If INEC and the political parties insist on using the manual voting system and get the election muddled, if the election is marred by massive rigging and, more important, if the public perceives the election outcome as heavily stage-managed and predetermined, Nigeria could very well be on the road to total fragmentation.
Any attempt by any political party and their candidates to disregard the election rules, to cheat, to use anarchy to obstruct free and fair election, or to disrupt the course of justice during the election could generate a chain of events, all of which could lead to one outcome – the dismemberment of the geographical entity known as Nigeria. The fear is real. The stakes are high. The election will be like no other. Voters’ patience is wearing thin. Politicians and their parties should not take Nigerians as gullible citizens who could be easily fooled.