We can say, without fear of contradiction, that Nigeria, at moment, is in the throes of elite conspiracy. Those who know are acting dumb. They are behaving as if nothing is the matter. That is what you get in a land where national interest is subordinated to a second order position. Nigeria is a country of deep secrets where people at the top know too much. They operate a secrecy ring to which only the initiated can be admitted.
Before the ongoing Chicago State University certificate drama involving Bola Ahmed Tinubu became an issue, Nigeria has had a long history of unexplained secrets. One of the most famous was the 53 suitcases saga of 1984. The military junta of that time, led by Muhammadu Buhari, had embarked on a change of the national currency. The policy was supposed to affect one and all. But at the middle of its implementation, 53 suitcases filled with currency were brought into the country through the Murtala Muhammed International Airport in Lagos. Personnel of the Nigeria Customs Service who were supposed to carry out the necessary checks on the consignment were not allowed by the military personnel at the airport to do so. The military boys, acting on orders from above, simply carted away the suitcases and left the airport. Our present-day Atiku Abubakar was the Customs officer in charge of the airport at that time. The suitcases were said to belong to a certain first class northern emir. The issue hogged the headlines for weeks and months. In the end, it was buried under the mud. Only the bigwigs at the top understood what transpired. For the rest of the people, the fact of the matter remains a matter of conjecture till today.
What about the 1986 parcel bomb incident that claimed the life of 39-year-old Dele Giwa? Letter bomb as a method of assassination was not, at that time, known on our shores. The incident shook Nigerians to the marrow. Everybody wanted the mystery to be unravelled. For weeks, months and years on end, Newswatch magazine, which Dele Giwa co-founded, continued to ask: “Who killed Dele Giwa?” The question has not been answered 37 years after. The incident remains one of Nigeria’s best kept secrets.
Indeed, secrecy is a way of life in Nigeria. It is even a state policy. It is for this reason that the Nigerian publics have been asking questions that end up not being answered by anyone. Tinubu, from what is going on around him, appears to be a beneficiary of Nigeria’s official secret regime. In fact, it could be said that he learned the ropes of official secrecy long ago. He has become adept in the dissembling game. The more you try to pigeonhole him, the more protuberant he becomes. To ensure that he is not understood at critical moments, Tinubu employs silence as a mythic weapon. It is an instrument of warfare. He deploys it as a strategy whenever he wants to turn attention away from whatever he is doing. He believes, rightly or wrongly, that calculated silence on critical issues reduces his risk of undue exposure or demystification. It keeps him away from messy troubles. That is why he will not speak on his Chicago papers.
His disposition since he began the presidential run in 2022 bears this out. His composure has been that of someone who knew the end from the very beginning. Tinubu, it would appear, had a Marshall Plan for the 2023 presidential race. He knew what he wanted to do at every turn and was, therefore, not going to subject himself to external dictates or influences. That could explain why he shunned the debates and town halls where the presidential candidates were expected to speak directly to the public on vital national and governance issues. Tinubu evaded all the sessions. No meaningful explanation was offered for his action. The man simply did not want to expose himself to prying eyes and probing questions. Tinubu’s refusal to participate in the presidential debates was a huge deficit to his presidential bid. It was supposed to count against him. But because the man was working towards an answer, he could not be bothered about the howl over his refusal to participate in the presidential debates. In the end, his vexatious absences amounted to nothing.
It was the same scenario that played out when he settled for a Muslim-Muslim ticket. The deal was sealed even before political parties began to sell their expression of interest forms to candidates. Tinubu knew very well the outrage such a decision would elicit in critical circles in Nigeria. But, again, he would not be bothered by any of that. He understands the psychology of the average Nigerian too well. He knows that the Nigerian has no staying power. He does not take any issue to a logical conclusion. He knows that the Nigerian will always buckle when it matters most. And so he ignored the kicks and resistances. The protestations, in the final analysis, amounted to nothing. It was no more than a storm in a tea cup. Tinubu had his way.
It is the same tactic that he has deployed over the Chicago papers. Peter Obi, his fellow candidate in the February 25 presidential election, has advised him on how to go about the matter. Obi has asked him to reintroduce himself to Nigerians so that they will know who he is. He should mount the rostrum and explain all the grey issues around the certificate he claims to have obtained from Chicago State University. That is simple and straightforward. If he does, that will remove the veil of secrecy and confusion around the issue.
But Tinubu would not do that. He knows that speaking to Nigerians on the issues in contention could open a Pandora’s box of hitherto unknown and troubling issues about him. He must have sneered at Obi and his ways. Tinubu certainly has his own way and he is pursuing it single-mindedly. He knows that Nigerians will not stay on the matter for a long time. As a people without abiding standards, Tinubu knows that Nigerians will soon throw the matter overboard. Ultimately, they will flow with the President, no matter the robe in which he is adorned.
By choosing to stay silent over the scandalous Chicago papers, Tinubu is disarming Nigerians. He knows that the howl over it will peter out in no time. To address the matter as Obi has advised him to do will only prolong the ongoing drama. Therefore, if nothing comes out of Chicago, it is not because Tinubu has no questions to answer over the questionable details of his past. It is simply because Nigerians live only for the moment. Tomorrow does not matter. That is why the conspiracy of silence engineered by the elite is working.