The survival of the fourth republic in Nigeria has defied every prediction by local and foreign observers. Earlier republics could not even survive one tenure and one leader. Tafawa Balewa was the only leader of the first republic. He was killed. Shagari was the only leader of the second republic. He was overthrown. MKO Abiola was the only leader of the stillborn third republic. He died in detention for trying to be President. To the chagrin of the whole world, the fourth republic has transited from one leader to another, from one party to another and from an incumbent to an opposition party within 16 years, and our democracy is still standing. We have every reason to thank God.
The foundation of this success was laid on June 12th, 1993, when Nigerians demonstrated that they were ready for democracy and tired of dictatorship, ethnicity and religious bigotry. They willingly voted for a Southern President in a Muslim-Muslim ticket. This great achievement was aborted by the Military junta who didn’t want to leave power. He cancelled the election and this was perceptively interpreted to mean that some ethnic nationalities and a section of Nigeria are more equal than others and didn’t want power to shift and rotate to other sections of the country. Nigeria was heading towards a collapse when the leaders and elders came together and positively decided to use democracy as an instrument to restore people’s belief in the equality of the ethnic nationalities that make up the Nigerian nation and consequently redress the injustice. They identified 6 Geo-Political Zones during the 1996 Constitutional Conference as the federating units and the basis to rotate the post of the President.
Although the 6 Geo-Political Zones did not find their way into our Constitution, they have long been legitimatized by the Federal Character Commission Act. The Act stipulates that positions which are not up to 37 in accordance with the 36-State structure and the FCT, should be shared on the basis of the 6 Geo-Political Zones. The political parties in 1999 adopted this position and ensured that the first 6 political posts in Nigeria were shared among the 6 Geo-Political Zones. The PDP, which was the only major political party by 1998 that is still existing today, in Preamble 2(d) of its Constitution, revealed that “the leaders of like-minded political associations in the country prompted by a sense of duty to the nation, assembled in the FCT, Abuja on the 28th Day of July, 1998 and resolved to conform with the principles of power shift and power sharing by rotating key political offices amongst the diverse peoples of the country”. The party, specifically, in Section 7(3)(c) of its Constitution vowed to adhere “to the policy of the rotation and zoning of Party and Public elective offices in pursuance of the principle of equity, justice and fairness”. The APC, which is one of the major political parties today, swore in Article 20(v) that “… the National Working Committee shall subject to the approval of the National Executive Committee make Rules and Regulations for the nomination of candidates through primary elections. All such Rules, Regulations and Guidelines shall take into consideration and uphold the principle of Federal Character, gender balance, geo-political spread and rotation of offices, to as much as possible ensure balance within the constituency covered”. In the issue of the President of Nigeria, the entire Country is one constituency. This simply means that the post of the President should be shifted and rotated between North and South and among the Geo-Political Zones, within the constituency covered.
General Abdulsalami Abubakar organised the 1999 elections which ushered in the fourth republic. When the time came for the Presidential election, in the spirit of power shift and rotation and redressing the injustice meted out to South West by the cancellation of June 12 presidential election, all the political parties ceded the post of the President to the South West which saw the emergence of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo as President. This landmark achievement worked like magic as it assuaged the feelings of the Yoruba people and exorcised the ghost of June 12. For the first time, the South-West was integrated to the mainstream national politics. It was still in adherence to the principle of rotation and power shift that made Nigerians defeat Obasanjo’s third term agenda that would have perpetuated him in office and inevitably truncated our nascent democracy. Obasanjo admitted that Yar Adua was chosen from the North, above all other equally qualified candidates from the South, to respect the agreement that power should rotate between North and South. The Yoruba should be commended because the progressive elements among them were part of the people who frustrated Obasanjo’s attempt at third term. Having suffered injustice as a people in the past by the cancellation of June 12, they were not willing to use their undue advantage to deny others their own privileges and rights. Eventually, three Fulanis from the North contested the 2007 election as presidential candidates of the major political parties and no section complained of marginalisation.
The unfortunate death of President Yar Adua altered the power shift and rotation to the detriment of the North and it was agreed, reportedly, that Goodluck Jonathan should complete the two terms of the Yar Adua/Jonathan joint ticket and also take the turn of the South South to govern Nigeria. Efforts by President Goodluck Jonathan to break from the agreement and do another term was collectively rejected by the North which came together on the basis of the power shift and rotation and voted him out in 2015. The North will complete its eight years by 2023 and by the concept of power shift and rotation, power should go South by then. The South East is the only Geo-Political Zone that has not had a chance at the President or Vice since 1999. It is very comforting to see the zeal of all the leadership cadre in Igboland: traditional, social-cultural, religious and political, registering their interest in the post of the President. This shows in very clear terms that Ndigbo prefer one Nigeria based on equity and justice to belonging to any separate country. This puts paid to the impression in some quarters that Ndigbo are interested in seceding from Nigeria. Also many lovers of Nigeria from other ethnic groups have pointed out that, in the interest of justice, it is the turn of the South-East to produce the next President of Nigeria. Afenifere, led by Pa Ayo Adebanjo, Niger Delta forum led by Pa Edwin Clark, Middle Belt forum, numerous northern groups have joined the call for a President from the South-East come 2023. On the 31st of March, 2022, eminent Nigerians, from all parts of the country, which include Alhaji Ali Abacha from Kano, Yakubu Danjuma from Bauchi, Umuada Igbo, committee for youth mobilisation and sensitisation led by Comrade Obinna Nwaka, representatives of several northern and southern coalitions, came under the umbrella of Campaign for Equity and Justice with Dr Kenneth Okonkwo serving as its Director-General, gathered together in Abujam, to confirm that in the interest of equity and justice, the next President should come from the South-East.
If there are people from the South, who are arguing that the agreement of power shift is between North and South and as such every Southerner should be allowed to contest for the Presidency in 2023, it is important to remind them that this North/South agreement was in force when Nigerians agreed to zone the post of the President to the South West and South-South in 1999 and 2011 respectively. He that pleads equity must first of all do equity. In law, equity entails equality. The question to ask to determine which Zone qualifies for the post in 2023 is which Zone will suffer the greatest injustice if it is denied the President in the South? Which zone will feel most alienated, lose sense of belonging and loyalty to Nigeria if denied the President? The obvious answer is the South-East.
Ndigbo is the only ethnic group in Nigeria that has suffered the agony of war against them. At the end of the war, they lost more than one million lives. In order to reintegrate them after the war, they were promised rehabilitation, reconstruction and reconciliation. That never happened. Over time, their infrastructures became dilapidated, their hard earned positions in the Nigerian military and civil service before the war were taken away from them. Voices of separatists among them are getting louder and louder everyday and is almost getting to a tipping point. The new generation of Ndigbo do not understand why they should be made to suffer from the misunderstandings between their forefathers and the forefathers of other tribes. Their argument is that if you say you want us in one Nigeria, you must make us feel like any other Nigerian or in the alternative, let them go. To worsen their psychological torture, whenever former Heads of State and Presidents are meeting anywhere, they will not see any Igboman with them. Yet, they are told that they are one of the majority tribes who helped to fight the British for the independence of Nigeria. What will be the best way to reconcile this people to their beloveth country than ceding the President to them in 2023, after all, the other Geo-Political Zones in the South had taken their turns.
Ndigbo, however, must realise that power is not gotten by threats in a democracy, but by cohesion among their own people and collaboration with other peoples of Nigeria. Igbo Presidency will indeed become a soothing balm that will heal every wound of the past. To do this, they should appeal to the sense of justice of the people of South West. They will remind the South-West that despite the fact that Dr Alex Ekwueme formed the People’s Democratic Party with other prominent Nigerians, South-East overwhelmingly supported President Obasanjo from the South-West in 1999 when the parties decided to zone the post to the South-West. They will rely on the South-South to reciprocate the love they showed to them when they supported their Son, Goodluck Jonathan, for President, without minding that they are the next majority tribe in the South, after the South West. They will rely on the sense of sacrifice the North made in 1999 when they ceded the position of the President to the South West to compensate them for the injustice of June 12 and ensure that the indivisibility and indissolubility of Nigeria was guaranteed. Ndigbo have openly demonstrated their desire for one Nigeria by aspiring to the post of the President of Nigeria, what remains is whether the other ethnic nationalities and Geo-Political Zones also believe in one Nigeria by ceding the post of the President to them. What is good for the goose is also good for the gander.