From Jude Idu, Abuja
With just few days to the end of the year, the outcome of the 2023 General Elections (which witnessed massive youth participation for the first time) has remained on the front burner of public discourse as the courts give mind-blowing judgments that have turned facts upside and deepened the perception of judgment-buying that is fast concretizing.
In this incisive interview, Princess Hamman-Obels, Director, Initiative for Research, Innovation and Advocacy in Development IRIAD, The Electoral Hub carries out a postmortem on the 2023 election and makes several recommendations for enhancing the electoral process, to ensure general acceptability of the results and prevent judicial heist of mandates bestowed through the ballot box at polling units.
Looking back at the 2023 general elections, what is the general assessment of the polls by the community of civil society organisations, in terms of fairness?
I think the 2023 general election was very well-planned for, and well-resourced, but to provide an answer to the question of whether or not it was fair would require clarity on what constitutes fairness in elections. What criteria should an election meet for it to qualify as a fair contest?
A fair electoral process entails impartial, transparent, inclusive procedures that uphold universal suffrage, equity, justice, access to information, security, fostering public trust by ensuring the accurate representation of the people’s will in election outcomes. Specific indicators of free and fair elections, as laid out by the Civil Liberties Union for Europe are: ability of all eligible citizens to register as voters; access to reliable information; ability of eligible citizens to contest; ability of all eligible voters to vote; absence of voter intimidation; absence of electoral malpractice; accurate counting of ballots and announcement of correct results; and respect for results.
Meeting the above criteria requires a level-playing field, unbiased institutions, and the presence of the right laws, amongst others. It is also dependent on all stakeholders playing their part because elections are a collective enterprise, election is everybody’s business. Bearing these in mind, I would refrain from providing a categorical response on whether or not the election was fair and opt to describe it as it is, that it was a process that had gains as well as shortcomings in terms of fairness. I think the adoption of technology, – the BVAS and IReV – signals an effort at transparency and creating an even playing field. This effort yielded some positives as political parties became more competitive and citizens, especially youths, were more interested in the process.
Being a very competitive and inclusive contest, the general election produced the most diverse National Assembly since Nigerian independence. The National Assembly which had been hitherto dominated by two political parties now has seven political parties represented in the Senate and eight in the House of Representatives following the 2023 general elections.
APC has 59 seats, APGA has one seat, Labour Party with eight; NNPP has two; PDP has 36; SDP won two seats while YPP has one seat, bringing the total to 109 senators.
In the House of Representatives, ADC has two seats; APC (176), APGA (five seats), LP (35), NNPP (19), PDP (118); SDP (two) and YPP secured one seat with vacant teo seats totalling 360 seats. Another notable fact about the 2023 general election is that seven sitting governors lost election to the Senate. Given the enormous powers of governors in the Nigerian political system, it is difficult to think that a process that was completely bereft of fairness would have produced this outcome. This does not mean the election was a perfect one but then there are no absolutes in life because you must account for human elements (errors etc.) and other issues.
What are your key recommendations for improvement?
My major recommendation for improving elections in Nigeria is that electoral accountability should be strengthened. Electoral accountability entails two interrelated issues. First, that elections truly serve as instruments for holding leaders accountable. This involves ensuring that citizens’ choices are unduly influenced by violence, money or other forms of manipulation. This would require major reforms and innovations in our electoral legislations.
A second aspect, which is often overlooked is the idea of accountability as the performance of functions assigned to duty-bearers. Ensuring successful elections is a collective responsibility of all stakeholders. The election management body – INEC, arms of government – executive, legislature, judiciary, as well as political parties, citizen groups, civil society associations, logistics institutions, and professional associations, amongst others, all have a role to play.
How do the CSOs view the Appeal Court and Supreme Court judgements on the 2023 elections?
I may be unable to speak for all CSOs, but being non-partisan guardians of our democratic process, CSOs typically push for the right thing to be done and accept the outcome when it is done. The election adjudication process is relatively straightforward, especially for Presidential Election Petitions. The dispute resolution process, according to our laws, begins with the tribunal and where tribunal rulings are disputed, the Supreme Court provides the final verdict. A ruling emerging from the Supreme Court, like that of the Presidential Election dispute, is final. CSOs, being advocates of the rule of law and due process are also bound by this ‘finality’ of the adjudication process.
This being stated, I must include that one of the most difficult things in the electoral judicial process is proving that a declared winner of a presidential election did not win. The burden of proof on the initiator/claimant is too heavy, bothersome and impracticable. Secondly, unseating a president in an electoral environment of zero sum politics (do or die politics) is an uphill battle as the field of play is already titled in power relations. Hence, it is best that presidential judicial process is concluded before a swearing-in. Finally on this point is to state that the 2023 judicial process also provided some opportunities for strengthening legal frameworks as the process exposed lacunas, gaps in the law and processes that can be manipulated against the collective good.
Do you think that INEC needs sub-agencies to assist it in subsequent elections?
Given the complexities of Nigerian elections and the range of responsibilities of the Commission, it is my thinking that ‘sub-agencies’ would serve to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the Commission. Specifically, a separate agency in charge of registering, monitoring, and regulating political party activities and their expenses would be useful for improving the functionality of the Commission in ensuring that political parties adhere to rules of electoral conduct and stay within financial limits set by relevant legislation. This would no doubt, reduce the issues of electoral malpractices by political parties, especially during party primaries. There are also over 50 electoral offences specified in the Electoral Act 2022, which calls for establishment of a separate agency to deal with them as the INEC legal department has not been able over the years to deal with these encumbrances. Hence, I support the establishment of an Electoral Offences Commission and Tribunal to address electoral offences. But the commission must not be subject to the Attorney General of the Federation. It must be one that has a very slim and inclusive composition and not as being proposed in the last NASS Bills.
Quite a lot of people have said that several CSOs get involved in election monitoring just for financial benefits. What’s you view on this?
I consider election monitoring to be a very tasking endeavour, requiring massive input of time and resources. There are also several safety concerns associated with election monitoring and I do not think any amount of financial incentive can serve as adequate motivation for involvement in election monitoring. I am not saying there may not be an element of truth in the allegation, but it is my firm view that election work is something you just cannot do if you do not have a passion for improving society. Many, including myself, often deploy personal resources for election work.
Do you think the government should pay CSOs and NGOs to aid their duties?
The task of election monitoring and observation serves to strengthen our electoral process and improve our democratic credentials as a country. On that note, it would be reasonable to expect that the government should invest in this. I am, however, wary of advancing a position that the government should pay CSOs to aid their duties. By paying CSOs, the government may compromise the ability of civil society to act as a watchdog and guardian of electoral accountability and democratic ideals. So I do not support the government paying civil society organisations to act as a watchdog.
It would be better if we call on the government to encourage civil society actors to propose innovative measures for improving our electoral and democratic system. Where such proposals are found worthy, the state can invest in them by funding such proposals. Where state funds have been expended on proposals aimed at improving the electoral systems, monitoring mechanisms and checks should also be in place to ensure that funds are expended for the purpose for which they were released. Ultimately, funding specific projects targeted at improving the electoral and democratic process appeals to me as a better cause than the idea of paying CSOs and NGOs.
What are these areas INEC need to make amends to improve subsequent elections?
The 2023 general election was characterized by marked improvements from prior experiences. However, there were some gaps which resulted in reduced public confidence on the electoral INEC. The IReV failure to upload the presidential election results on time was a clear example. In view of the issues observed, the following are some recommendations for improvement: INEC should strengthen its strategic communication to ensure effective delivery and successful elections; INEC should train ad hoc staff extensively on the arrangement of the polling units to ensure secret ballots on election day; in compliance with Section 2(a) of the Electoral Act, INEC should carry out extensive voter education on election day activities. This should include the electorate and citizens’ responsibilities to safeguard electoral integrity and compliance with legal provisions such as inclusivity and priority voting; INEC should provide the basic materials required in conducting elections for the electoral officials, for example proper functioning pen or marker used in documenting election results; INEC should be more innovative in logistics management to ensure timely electoral conduct; INEC should do well to adequately inform persons who have been transferred to another PU, particularly persons in rural areas to bolster participation and improve electoral quality and credibility; INEC should adequately train ad-hoc staff on the use of its technologies particularly the BVAS and upload results effectively; INEC should make provisions for lighting to ensure the smooth running of the voting process in the event of voting not being concluded before dark; INEC should ensure that all staff employed possess integrity and adequate capacity to carry out their duties.
In view of the outcome of the 2023 election, would you say that electoral funds invested by the both the government and donor countries were justifiably utilised by INEC?
This question is one that is at the heart of many with interest in the Nigerian electoral process and the accountability of our electoral institutions. I share this interest and beyond my general preoccupation with election work, it was part of the factors that drove me to take a closer, impassionate look at electoral activities and the spending associated with it.
For the 2023 general elections, INEC had a budget of 335 billion Naira. This, is clearly a huge sum. However, an understanding of the complexities of Nigerian elections provides some justification for it.
Nigeria has 36 states, 774 local government areas, 109 Senatorial Districts, 360 Federal Constituencies, 993 State Constituencies, 8809 electoral wards/Registration Areas and 176,846 polling units (176,606 Pus used for 2023). Across this space, electoral contests typically involve several parties and candidates vying for different positions, as President of the country, governors of each of the 36 states, the 109 Senatorial Seats, the 360 Federal Constituencies, and the 993 State Constituencies. INEC is required to manage the process in all these contests.
In managing the process, INEC is involved in a litany of activities. Let us focus on two, election personnel and procurement of sensitive materials. For the election, there were a total of 176,606 polling units utilized. In each of these, INEC deploys four (4) electoral staff – a Presiding Officer and three Assistant Presiding Officers. That makes a total of 706,424 electoral staff at the polling unit. This does not take into account other staff at local government, ward levels, etc. Consider how much the Commission would spend on training and remuneration of 706,424 Polling Units personnel on electoral duty. This runs into billions already. By the time you add all the other levels of staff, it becomes more billions. This is just human resources for elections. Then you bring in securitized sensitive election materials – ballots papers and results sheets. For the election with 93,469,008 registered voters, INEC would be required to print over 500million ballot papers. This is huge. Sadly, most of these are wasted when the voters who are expected to use them do not turn out to vote. The unused ballot papers are required by law to be destroyed, this is a huge cost and waste to the nation. There are also a multitude of other forms to be printed as well as procurement to be done including simple things like ink and pens.
Also, consider the logistical needs associated with electoral conduct in a clime like ours, covering a vast area with different topographical and climatic traits. Consider the cost of procurement. When you begin putting all of these in perspective, it becomes easy to tick off the billions spent on elections in Nigeria. Also, noting that literally everything in Nigeria is imported and so the role of forex, forex availability and rate also have major implications on spending for elections.
Besides the above, our electoral complexities are also fundamentally driven by the trust deficit environment and “do or die” political mindset of politicians. For instance, if not for these twin issues, INEC would not not need to securitise sensitive materials thus spending more on their production, transportation and storage.
This is not to say that there should be no accountability mechanism to ensure that the Commission accounts for what is received and what is spent. The National Assembly, should, by all means, discharge its oversight functions in ensuring that the money for electoral conduct in Nigeria serves the purpose for which it is earmarked.
Chaos bedeviled 2023 elections recording lots of shortcomings on the side of INEC and its RECs. What are your comments on this?
The 2023 general elections showed the truism of the aforementioned statement. Chaos, an unexpected and unanticipated circumstance, exerted a significant influence on the process. This was clear from the naira redesign policy which created a paucity of cash which affected INEC’s preparations and impacted voter turnout. This dovetailed with the issue of fuel scarcity during the elections which also affected logistics and turnout. Clearly, chaos played a key role in the 2023 general elections.
Regarding the place of incumbents, that is self-evident. Policies like the Naira redesign policy which impacted the elections, clearly stem from policy-making and implementation of the State, which has incumbents (the President and his ministers, as well as members of the legislature) at the apex. These incumbents, or more appropriately, leaders have a key role to play in containing and even preventing chaos, or creating it. And then Patrick Chabal and Jean-Pascal Daloz have argued that chaos/disorder is a political instrument of politicians.
What is your rating of the security agencies and the para-military organizations on election duties?
I would say they performed their duties to an extent but there is need for better work. Our observers noted some level of security presence and there were reported cases of security personnel containing the outbreak of violence during elections. Channels TV reported the presence of security persons in Benin City, Oredo Local Government Area, Ward 4, Edo State, as well as the arrest of a lawmaker and 160 others for ballot box snatching and other similar offences in Kano State. Related proof of the presence of security during the governorship election was reported by ThisDay Live which reported the arrest of 26 and over 100 electoral offenders in Lagos and Enugu states respectively.
In addition to these proofs of security presence, it is worth noting that during the 2023 general elections, there were also reports of unprofessional conduct of security personnel. There were reports of security personnel looking the other way while electoral malpractices were being perpetrated. Even in the pre-election period, an official of the Nigerian Police Force said “Nigerians should take it as a joke” following MC Olomu’s threat that voters should stay at home if they are not voting for a particular political party. This is an area that the security agencies need to work on. The Police is not doing enough to address electoral crimes, and in some cases actually enable them. Clear cases are vote trading at polling units and during political primaries. Perpetrators of all forms of electoral malpractice must be arrested and prosecuted to ensure electoral accountability.