At a time when elements of the conservative northern political establishment in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) appear to have resolved to shift presidential power to the south of Nigeria in 2023, the liberal northern politicians in the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) seem determined to retain power in the northern region beyond 2023. Led by President Muhammadu Buhari, the conservative northern establishment, which has been in firm control of the politics of Nigeria’s largest democratic demography since 2015 when the APC came to power, may have come to the realisation that it cannot hold on to power after eight years without severe consequences for the unity and continuous existence of Nigeria. From all indications, as seen in the near absence of northern presidential aspirants on its platform, the Buhari-led APC has clearly settled for a Nigerian President of southern origin, beginning from 2023 when Nigerians will go to the polls to vote for a new leader.
On the other hand, the PDP, with its strongest political support base in the South and minority areas of the North (Middle Belt) and which is expected to be most willing to pick its presidential candidate from the region, is looking towards the North for its presidential redemption. Clearly unprepared for a southern presidency, the PDP was hoping to opportunistically inherit the massive votes of northern Nigeria by fielding a candidate from the region at a time when the APC is looking south.
In the thinking of many a PDP stalwart from the South, the interest of the party should be to win the next presidential election by any means possible and be concerned by the morality of zoning for the purpose of equity, justice and unity. Having been defeated twice in the 2015 and 2019 presidential elections by the APC, which was heavily enamoured on both occasions by the massive votes of Nigeria’s largest voting bloc in the Muslim North, some PDP stalwarts from the South, like a defeated army whose officers and men are suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder, have surrendered to the political supremacy of northern Nigeria.
In their consideration, an average Muslim northerner is incapable of making rational political decisions without being influenced by ethno-geographic and religious sentiments, which makes it impossible for a southerner to defeat a northerner in any presidential contest in Buhari’s Nigeria. And for the PDP to win back the presidency of Nigeria in 2023, the candidate has to be northern and Muslim. Even when there are clear indications that the political establishment in the region has reached a decision to cede power to the South in 2023, some PDP pundits have expressed doubts about the sincerity of this purpose, given the fact that northern Nigeria holds the knife (power) and the yam (patronage) and can decide to keep both.
Relying on this impression of the political invincibility of the Muslim North, a legion of presidential aspirants from the region have been straddling the length and breadth of the country and making a case for ‘winnability’ over the morality of zoning as the PDP prepares for the 2023 presidential election.
However, with the widespread clamour for power shift to the South by leaders of the region across ethnic, religious and partisan divides as contained in the Asaba Declaration of the 17 southern governors in August 2021, a position that has been adopted by the leading socio-cultural groups in the region and the seeming willingness of the APC to field a southern candidate in the 2023 presidential election, the PDP has suddenly found itself in a state of flux amid a raging controversy over zoning.
While it is true that the North has the knife and yam in Buhari’s Nigeria, much as it may want to keep both, it is in the long-term interest of the region to relinquish power to the South as a last-ditch effort to salvage whatever is left of Nigeria’s national unity and corporate existence. Whereas the North wants power, its needs the unity of the Nigerian state for its regional self-enlightened interest. Having failed to improve the socio-economic condition of the region and leaving it, by the end of his eight-year rule, a terrorized, war-torn, poverty-stricken dungeon of insecurity, Buhari, despite his sectionalism failed to wean northern Nigeria off revenue dependency from oil mineral and tax revenues from the South.
It is the monthly allocation from crude oil revenues to the 19 states and 419 local governments of the North that is used to fund the elaborate and flamboyant emirate system in the region. The same monthly allocation is used to fund the rich lifestyle of the political elite and their Ulama collaborators whose duty it is to put a stamp of religious authority on their divine right to rule of the people. Aware of this stark reality, in addition to a deeply polarised polity along north/south and Muslim/Christian divides, the North may have taken a painful decision to cede power to a trusted ally and friend from the South who has the capacity of healing a fractured Nigeria by not elevating the interest of his region over the others. And this is why no northern presidential candidate on any party is likely to make much impact in the North, as most of the votes in the region will be mobilized for a preferred southern candidate.
That the PDP may not sail against the strong wind of presidency that is blowing south, the party has to field a southerner as its presidential candidate in the 2023 presidential election. For the PDP, the 2023 presidential election is not just about ‘winnability’ but actual survival. Whereas the APC is dominant in the North and the PDP’s strongest base is in the South, the move by the APC to field a southern candidate in the 2023 presidential election will torpedo the PDP from the region if the party fields a northern candidate. And if the PDP goes ahead to sail against the wind in 2023 by fielding a northern candidate, the ship of the party will capsize and sink into oblivion because the party will lose in the North and in the South to the APC.