Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has again declared his intention to run for the office of President on the platform of the PDP in the 2023 presidential election. Let’s see how he fares in this battle
This should be his fourth attempt, if my memory serves me right. Yet, a veteran warrior that he is, Mr. Atiku doesn’t seem to have lost an ounce of his zeal, despite several setbacks in his quest to occupy Aso Rock, since the days of the erratic political transitions during the army-led polity of the late 1980s, no thanks to the long-winding transition programme of the foxy Military President, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida.
Atiku cut his teeth under the wily and politically astute Gen. Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, a strategist and power wheeler-dealer. Of all the folks who had their tutelage under the late Katsina-born general, Atiku has turned out to be the most enduring, politically. He is also the most successful, becoming the VP under President Olusegun Obasanjo. It is still a mystery how he managed to survive two terms with a loose canon like OBJ.
Unfortunately for him, Atiku has not been President only because OBJ sabotaged his efforts, having constituted an albatross to his former VP after a protracted power struggle in office. Both struggled to control the political machinery of the PDP as OBJ tried to get a second and third term! Atiku made sure OBJ lost the third term bid, and the vengeful Obasanjo ensured Atiku won’t be President! This quarrel can still not be wished away even though a lot of water has passed under the bridge.
Since OBJ tore Atiku’s reputation to shreds with his ill-tempered quarrel with his erstwhile No. 2 man, it is impossible for the broken hearts to mend fully without bearing scars. These are the scars the Adamawa strongman carries with him to this day. It is difficult to hide.
That said, the OBJ scare is not the only baggade haunting Atiku. He appears to be prone to scandals or, if you like, troubling negative press. For someone who is seeking election to the highest public office in the land, a scandal is the least to expect. All Atiku’s rivals have scandals hanging around them, except perhaps, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo. But the VP hasn’t declared and is unlikely to do so, since his political mentor, Bola Tinubu, is running.
However, this election is not about integrity. No election ever was, except President Muhammadu Buhari’s in 2015, when his record as a military Head of State who fought corruption head-on propelled his election at a period when Nigerians needed a “Mr. Clean” to replace the corruption-soaked government of the PDP.
Just what is Atiku going to be saying in this campaign that he hasn’t said before? Little, if you ask me. However, he is playing an ethnic card on behalf of Ndigbo, by saying, if elected in 2023, he’d do just one term and hand over to an Igbo in 2027.
Again, that’s baloney! Atiku or any incumbent president lacks the power to “hand over” to anyone, unless such a person wins a presidential election. Besides, Atiku is unlikely to run full two terms if he wins in 2023. Circumstances beyond his control would not make that imperative. From all indications, the gentleman has no new ideas on which to base his campaign, except throw money around, make some noise, play the ethnic/religious cards where plausible and then go to court, if he loses. Atiku and his strongest rival, Tinubu, share an abiding passion to rule Nigeria, and they’d do anything to make this dream come true. It is very clear, however, that if one gets it, the other won’t.
It is almost a done deal that this race is likely to be between Atiku and Tinubu, if present indicators are not upset. So far, the PDP hasn’t done enough to position itself for victory against an entrenched APC that has an obvious incumbency advantage despite its appalling governance record.
For me, a new party coming to power in 2023 other than the APC and the PDP would have been a most welcome development. That’s more wishful thinking, for sure.PDP or APC is still likely to win in 2023. And that’s the sad news for all Nigerians who have tried both parties and seen that they’re different sides of the same coin.
Atiku and Tinubu, or even the other pretenders contesting against them, have no answer to all the developmental challenges plaguing Nigeria. There’s no one on the horizon today who can claim to have the right solutions to our problems. None! On a personal note, this election is Atiku’s greatest and last battle on the political front. He’s unlikely to be a credible or capable candidate in 2027, if he fails to win in 2023. I hope he knows that.
Therefore, to have any chance of winning, he must be willing to do the politically impossible, which are: decide to restructure Nigeria along eight geopolitical zones; promote devolution of powers, agree to fiscal federalism and state police. If Atiku could run with these and still carry the northern elite/mullahs along, he’d be able to shake off the hoodoo of perpetual defeat and win in 2023.
Even for a Buhari, with all his alleged Hausa/Fulani irredentism, it would be a tall order. It’s doubtful if Atiku, himself a typical beneficiary of the northern political hegemony, would accept such revolutionary programmes as outlined above, let alone run on the agenda. If we set all these aside as a pipe dream, any candidate who wins in 2023 will do so because the prevailing governing cabal is safer with him in power, not because he has anything extraordinary to offer to make Nigeria better.
This write-up is about Atiku, I’d advise, that since this is likely to be his most realistic last shot at the presidency, why not go for broke and rejig the federation as suggested in the preceding?
He could campaign on this platform of total restructuring and damn the consequences. He might just nick it this time, but, if he loses, he’d do so with his head high.
Weekend spice. We can’t all be winners, neither can we all be losers, you win some, you lose some.
Ok folks, let’s do it again some other time. COVID-19 is still raging. Stay safe. Be motivated!