“Toxic leaders are energy vampires, draining the life and enthusiasm out of those they lead.”
—Dov Seidman
By Cosmas Omegoh
Nigeria’s political space is now one big theatre of the absurd. Last week, it witnessed another shocking oddity, when a gale of political defections hit the land.
Many were aghast as politicians mostly from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) defected en masse to the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC).
It was such a seismic development, a shift of the political tectonic plate which saw former governor of Delta State, Dr Ifeanyi Okowa, moving over to the APC.
It was not only the former governor’s move that caused a stir. The defection of his successor, Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, his cabinet members, and elected officials from the ward up to the Senate level moved like one man to their new-found party.
Most pundits saw last week’s development as signalling Nigeria’s final descent to the ravine of authoritarianism under the watch of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a president often said to be “high on politics, but low on performance.”
While some Nigerians reeled following the shock of what happened, those who are in position to know advised everyone still sulking to save their energy for the worst, warning that a turbulent ride is yet to come. They revealed that more PDP governors and officials in days and hours to come will dump the umbrella for the broom. And like it is often said, the heavens will not fall.
Indeed rumours are rife that governors of Akwa Ibom, Taraba, Enugu, Abia and Adamawa states as well as the suspended governor of Rivers State, might drift to the APC. It is a given, Oyo State governor, Seyi Makinde, is body and spirit in APC while holding the umbrella. And it is also suspected that the New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP) strong man, Rabiu Kwankwaso is already at the APC borderline waiting to cross over with his army of red cap adorners.
Last week when the defection tsunami began to rip through the land, echoes of excitement rose from the tents of APC members and their supporters. They massed at corners, discussing the landmark successes. They couldn’t believe their luck. With a finger in the air they praised the political mastery and sagacity of President Tinubu, describing him as a maverick of rare hue. Praises also rang out for Umaru Ganduje the party’s chairman and new Mr Fix It. But on the generality of Nigerians, a certain sombre air descended. Many are still in shock to discuss the defection storm and find no energy to do so; they cannot piece themselves together to make head or tail out of the emerging issues. Some who want to make an attempt do not know exactly where to start from.
Analysts who have found the courage to interrogate the APC magic see the Bola Tinubu silhouette in all that went down. They recall he did something similar in Lagos by uprooting and eventually killing the opposition. And now he is replicating the same at the federal level. They lament that Tinubu has now forced his state capture and regime protection to go full circle. They flay Nigeria’s democracy as still nascent and immature, urging those rejoicing at the turn of things to exercise restraint. Their verdict is that with the opposition and alternative parties dead – killed by the powers that be – the country might soon experience the wild and the weird. And when the consequences begin to come in full, it might not just rain; it would pour.
But aside from the perceived implications of the APC’s deft move on the chess board, many have been wondering what manner of magic wand the party and Tinubu used on the defectors. They want to know exactly the size and colour of the carrot APC and Tinubu dangled to compel them to undertake the dive. Or were they placed under duress? Or knives were put to their throats? Or were they given life tickets to paradise? Or all and even more?
Analysts recall that based on President Tinubu’s current perceived soured relationship with the North, he had lost a lot of grounds not only in the Northeast, but also in the Northwest. The latter boasts of large numbers of electoral votes. And, therefore, he fears that with some of those areas looking gone – more so when Senator Ali Ndume consistently calls him One Term President (OTP), returning to the South – particularly the South-south region would turn out to be his saving grace. And when the hour comes, he would be home and dry with a handful of votes from the North-central.
But as for the governors taking the plunge, it is believed that their fears are that they risk losing a re-election; they risk having their states captured from them should they fail to play ball by decamping to the APC. So they are under state coersion. That looks believable considering the brand of politics played in the country which many say is akin to the more you look, the less you see.
However, an APC official excited by the hordes of politically-exposed persons trooping to their camp, has been out saying that the defectors were coming over on their own volition.
Then turning to Dr Okowa, Nigerians are still wondering what his defection narrative will be.
He was preferred to the Obidient Peter Obi and indomitable Nyesom Wike. For reasons best known to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar who was the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate in the 2023 election he chose Dr Okowa as his running mate.
Atiku had run the 2019 presidential election with Mr Peter Obi, but when he showed signs not to run with Obi again in the build up to the 2023 presidential election, Obi changed to Labour Party, and despite Wike’s strong showing during the PDP primaries, Atiku preferred Okowa.
What really has changed within this period, many keep asking. What exactly does Okowa want? Does his action not appear like a stab in the back of the Atiku he worked with and believed in a little more than two years ago? What then changed?
In trying to bring a perspective to the flurry of puzzles, some analysts have come out to absorb Okowa from what went down, suggesting that the Delta debacle might have been triggered by the former Governor James Ibori, a bosom friend of President Tinubu now in APC whose daughter not long ago, defected to the same party from the PDP. Could that be a prelude to what came later? Ibori was said to have been sighted last week at Aso Rock Villa. Could that be a visit to clink glasses to celebrate the Delta deal?
It is believed that Ibori still firmly holds the structure of Delta State government in his palm. Recall that all the past governors who ruled after him had his blessing before ascending the throne; they even share affinity.
On the other hand, although Okowa is out of government, it is still being remembered that he remains on the EFCC radar over an alleged N1.3 trillion he is being accused of embezzling. Therefore, some people are struggling to build a connection to this. They reason that a move to APC might help him save his skin. After all, APC former chair, Adams Oshiomhole once wooed politicians with the mantra: “When you come over to the party your sins are forgiven.”
Some have come out to draw parallel with Okowa delivering Delta, a strong PDP state, to APC, with Judas delivering Jesus to the Jews.
Overall, the big question is: “What is there for the ordinary man in the defection matrix?” Many refuse to be convinced that all of that is not for self-serving.
At the end of the day, while the fate of Nigerians still hangs in the balance, politicians keep following their interest. They keep going to where their bread is best buttered. While doing so, they intuitively hammer home the undeniable truth that politics in Nigeria is grey, devoid of ideology, and bereft of honour and dignity. Only a handful of the actors can be trusted. Therefore, those who place their faith in the former, need to look elsewhere.