Those who are hoping that the suspended governor of Rivers State, Siminalayi Fubara, will be reinstated at the expiration of his six months suspension may have to think again. Their hope for his return may end up as a pipe dream if calculated and determined steps are not taken to ensure its actualization.
Relevant and professional institutions such as the Nigeria Bar Association (NBA) had, in the wake of Fubara’s suspension as governor, pointed at the unconstitutionality of the action. The argument is that even though Section 305 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), vests on the president the power to declare a state of emergency in any part of the Federation, such action must only be taken in strict compliance with the conditions and procedural safeguards that will ensure that such extraordinary measures do not impinge on democratic governance and fundamental human rights. The NBA drew attention to Section 188 of the Constitution which outlines procedures for the removal of governor and his deputy. None was adhered to in the case of Rivers State. Indeed, the argument is that there is nowhere in the Nigerian Constitution where the president is vested with the unilateral power to remove or replace elected officials. NBA holds that any such action amounts to an unconstitutional usurpation of power and a fundamental breach of Nigeria’s federal structure.
Regardless of these persuasive arguments, the president’s unconstitutional action has come to stay. Nigerians have, as usual, acquiesced . They wouldn’t be bothered about who is or who is not the governor of Rivers State.
But the curious angle to the unfolding drama is that the same Nigerians who have gone to sleep over the Rivers State political crisis are hoping or expecting that Fubara will return to office at the expiration of the six months suspension just like that. They do not see any caveat. They do not seem to factor in the clause “in the first instance” contained in the declaration. What this means is that the declaration can be extended if the president feels that the conditions that led to the declaration in the first place have not been ameliorated.
But that is not even the issue. The point is that Fubara will not return as governor if concerned Nigerians, particularly of Rivers State extraction, do not play the right politics or embark on an impactful push.
Fubara’s suspension was purely political. This being the case, it is only counter politics that will reverse the action. Going to sleep or toeing the path of complacency, as many have done, will not remedy the situation. What they may get at the end of the day is the return of members of the Rivers State House of Assembly to the exclusion of the governor. In fact, there is every indication that that is what those who removed Fubara are plotting this time around. Watchers of developments in Rivers State will readily agree that there has been no whimper from the legislators since their suspension. They seem to be at home with the outcome of their face- off with the governor. The powers-that-be must have assured them that the sacrifice they are making is needed to nail Fubara to the coffin. They must have got assurances that their return will be the next step towards the complete decimation of Fubara.
Those who want Fubara to return must understand these brewing intrigues. Beyond that, they must understand the kernel of the politics that led to his removal. They must understand that the president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has all along, been an interested party in the Rivers State political crisis. But he chose to pretend about it until the proverbial handshake crossed the elbow. Nyesom Wike, the man who , as seating Governor, delivered Rivers State to Tinubu in the 2023 presidential election, is at the centre of the storm. Wike wants to have a firm grip of Rivers State. It has to be so if he must be in a position to deliver the state again to Tinubu in the presidential election of 2027. Wike’s plot can only be possible if the seating governor of the state yields sufficient grounds to him for possible electoral manoeuvres. Fubara, it would appear, did not give Wike the leeway he needed to get things done in Rivers State. Wike was convinced that with Fubara as governor, Tinubu’s victory in Rivers State in 2027 will be an uphill task. If the scenario we have painted here is plausible, then Tinubu has every reason to be interested in the politics of Rivers State. That was why he struck with presidential might when it was getting increasingly difficult for the Rivers State House of Assembly to initiate impeachment proceedings against Fubara. The declaration of state of emergency had every element of surprise. It came like a thunderbolt from the sky.
Those who are hoping that Fubara will return should take a reflective look on the layers of intrigues that eventually nailed the suspended governor. The plot to remove Fubara was not a straight one. It was well rehearsed before the plotters got a hang to it. The involvement of the Supreme Court was not for nothing. It was the killer plot. The plotters knew that Fubara would be stuck along the line. They knew that the noose around him was tight. Remember that Tinubu made reference to the Supreme Court judgment as part of his justification for his action in Rivers State.
Those who, in their naivety, are expecting a Fubara return should ponder this question: if Fubara stages a comeback, how does that guarantee Tinubu a place in Rivers politics in 2027? Tinubu has a game-plan. He wants to protect his turf. That is not completely unexpected in politics. After all, self-preservation remains the first law of nature. For this reason, those who are interested in Fubara’s return must engage anti-Fubara elements at the right juncture. They will either get Fubara coopted into the Tinubu 2027 presidential plot, or confront the anti-Fubara forces frontally.
But can Fubara, at this time, possibly become a Tinubu lackey? Can he be cajoled into queuing behind Tinubu’s 2027 presidential bid as a condition for his reinstatement as governor? If Fubara chooses this ignoble option, history will certainly be harsh on him for being spineless and also lacking in principle. Besides, to do so will amount to handing over the state to the forces that ousted him in the first place. That will be capitulation. It is tantamount to surrender.
Beyond what Fubara can do on his own, the burden of his possible return rests more on the people of Nigeria, particularly Rivers people. Since it has been established that Fubara’s removal is unconstitutional, it behoves the aggrieved to demonstrate that they do not accept that slap on the face of justice and democratic governance. Steps must be taken to resist the impunity, both legally and extra-legally. If those concerned fail to do this, then the possibility of Fubara return will remain remote.