By Merit Ibe
The Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), in its latest empirical assessment, projected that reducing tariffs and non-tariff barriers within the continent, as outlined in the Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) modalities, could accelerate intra-African trade by 45 per cent by 2045 by unlocking new economic opportunities.
It also noted that a scenario without AfCFTA would rob Africa of a reliable platform to drive regional integration and industrial growth.
Deputy Executive Secretary (Programme Support) at the ECA, Mr Antonio Pedro made the remarks recently at the 2025 57th session of Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development -Committee of Experts in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, themed: “Advancing the implementation of the Agreement Establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area: proposing transformative strategic actions.”
Pedro noted that the AfCFTA serves both as a development blueprint and a powerful political platform, where majority of the anticipated gains are expected in the agrifood and industrial sectors, creating unprecedented opportunities for Africa’s industrialisation, food security and product complementarity.
He also projected that AfCFTA’s implementation would require about $411 billion in transport equipment.
“A prosperous Africa is a market for businesses all over the world. We must strengthen the fundamentals to make this happen,” Pedro said, acknowledging that Africa must first overcome the limitations of the small and fragmented economies inherited from colonial rule to unlock its full economic potential.
He described AfCFTA as the result of over six decades of persistent efforts toward regional and continental economic integration.
“Proud as we are of the journey so far, the task ahead remains significant and indeed critical.
“We are committed to continue supporting our member states to fully realise their regional integration journey that will culminate in the establishment of the African Economic Community.
“We are convinced that in this integration process, the AfCFTA is a critical and transformational initiative. Today, about 85 percent of Africa’s total exports is directed to the rest of the world, with a strong concentration in primary commodities that account for over 60 percent of the total.
“This contrasts with the composition of intra-African trade, which, although relatively small, is more diversified and dominated by industrial products. This is where the AfCFTA is expected to be a game changer.”
He said ECA’s latest empirical assessment indicated that reducing tariffs and non-tariff barriers within the continent, as outlined in AfCFTA’s modalities, could result in intra-African trade growing by 45 percent by 2045 compared to a scenario without AfCFTA.
“The majority of these anticipated gains are expected in the agrifood and industrial sectors, creating unprecedented opportunities for Africa’s industrialisation, food security and product complementarity.
“Another important study we did in 2022 on ‘Implications of the African Continental Free Trade Area for Demand of Transport Infrastructure and Services’ projected that about USD $411 billion in transport equipment will be required because of the AfCFTA, including US$4 billion for 135 vessels, US$25 billion for 243 aircraft, US$36 billion for 169,000 rail wagons, and US$345 billion for over 2.2 million trucks,” he said.
Investments in railway infrastructure and fleets are expected to increase intra-African trade by rail from less than one percent today to nearly seven percent, representing a projected rise of 5,5 percent, he added.
Despite its vast potential, Mr Pedro noted that a lack of appropriate information about AfCFTA remains a major challenge.
For example, the African private sector, especially small and medium-scale enterprises, remains largely unaware of the AfCFTA,he said, noting that achieving the benefits of intra-African trade requires greater awareness and engagement from the private sector.
“We must not expect intra-African trade to change without the African private sector knowing about it, embracing it, and playing a key role in supporting its operationalisation. In other words, the transformational power of the AfCFTA can only be unleashed through a comprehensive, coordinated, inclusive, and intentional action by all at all levels.”
On his part, Wamkele Mene, Secretary-General, AfCFTA secretariat acknowledged that indeed, advancing the implementation of the AfCFTA is more than an economic necessity; it is a strategic pathway to achieving inclusive growth, resilience and sustainable development across the continent.
Men said the priority now is full implementation, delivering tangible results for SMEs, African investors and economic operators.
“This is even more crucial in the face of global geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing war in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East, which have heightened political uncertainty and kept interest rates high, restricting investment.
“These challenges highlight the urgency of increasing productivity and diversifying African economies. The operationalisation of the AfCFTA presents a strategic opportunity to drive this transformation and the progress made so far in its implementation while encouraging, must serve as a catalyst for redoubling our efforts.”
“Currently, 49 Member States have ratified the Agreement, providing a solid legal framework for trade liberalization and economic integration.
This is a significant milestone, and we remain optimistic that the remaining Member States will soon join, unlocking the full potential of intra-African trade.
He pointed out that the AfCFTA Secretariat has developed operational tools and targeted interventions to help the private sector effectively utilize the Agreement, identify investment opportunities and integrate into key supply chains.
The key operational tools include E-Tariff Book; Rules of Origin Manual; Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS); AfCFTA Adjustment Fund.
He said one of “our significant success stories is the launch of the Guided Trade Initiative (GTI). The GTI which has been particularly successful, facilitating the exchange of value-added goods like processed foods and textiles among 39 participating countries.
“The number of certificates of origin issued has surged from 13 in 2022 to over 2,600, demonstrating the growth trade activity under the AfCFTA’s preferential tariff system.
Businesses are accessing new markets, reducing trade costs and enhancing regional value chains, contributing to the broader goal of economic integration.
He was emphatic that the AfCFTA is not only increasing trade volumes but also driving structural economic diversification, shifting economies away from commodity exports towards manufacturing and value-added industries.