By Adanna Nnamani, Merit Ibe, Okwe Obi, Lukman Olabiyi and Steve Agbota
As the federal government mobilises to avert what it believes could turn out to be a violent demonstration, the planned nationwide protest is gathering storms from different dimensions even as stakeholders outline the potential implications and far reaching effects of the protest.
Yet to be identified civil society groups had initiated mass mobilization for protest, tagged #EndBadGovernance, over economic hardship faced by Nigerians to begin from August 1. But fears are that the planned protests could lead to civil unrest and violence of unexpected proportions, reminiscent of the EndSARS protest of 2020, which came with mass destruction of public facilities and loss of lives.
To forestall the protests, President Bola Tinubu has embarked on a series of strategic meetings with key stakeholders across the country. He has rallied the Nigeria Governors’ Forum, Progressives Governors’ Forum, traditional rulers, and other influential figures to assist in discouraging the organizers of the proposed protests from going on with their plans.
Prior to that, he had rolled out food palliatives, allocating 20 trucks of rice for onward distribution to the poorest of the poor in each state of the federation and Abuja.
In addition to the crucial meetings, Tinubu has also engaged with youth leaders, civil society organisations and other key stakeholders to ensure a comprehensive understanding of the pervasive poverty being faced by Nigerians. At each of the separate meetings, Tinubu acknowledged the fact that the country is facing a challenging economic situation, and that he understood the frustrations that have permeated the hearts and minds of many Nigerians, particularly the youth.
Through the security agencies, the government has issued a series of warnings against protests that could lead to possible breakdown of law and order, with veiled threats and show of force to serve as deterrence.
On the other hand, a human rights activist and lawyer, Kabiru Akingboolu has affirmed the legality of the protest, emphasizing that it is a constitutional right of citizens to protest. Akingboolu maintained that protests arise from widespread dissatisfaction with government policies, comparing the government’s stance to “biting people and telling them not to cry.” He stressed that protests are a necessary democratic tool for holding the government accountable and prompting positive policy changes.
Similarly, Charles Enwelunta, another lawyer of many years standing, expressed support for the protest, describing it as long overdue and a response to bad government policies. Enwelunta dismissed claims that the protest is being sponsored by opposition parties, labelling such allegations as mere excuses for poor governance. He reiterated that the right to protest is enshrined in the constitution and is a fundamental aspect of democracy, underscoring the public’s right to express discontent with government policies.
But a former chairman of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) Ikeja branch, Dave Ajetomobi, expressed concerns over the planned protest, likening it to the civil unrest in Kenya. He warned that replicating such actions without consideration could lead to more fundamental issues.
While cautioning that counter-demonstrations could escalate to violence, Ajetomobi criticized the political class for their lavish lifestyles amidst widespread poverty.
Chijioke Ekechukwu, a former Director General of the Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) and CEO of Dignity Finance, expressed grave concerns about the economic impact of the anticipated demonstrations on the country, noting that historical precedents show that protests, even those initially intended to be peaceful, often escalate into violence or disruption. He also recalled that past protests have frequently led to economic damage, including business closures, job losses, and significant financial losses for business owners.
An economist and development expert, Aliyu Ilias, also voiced concerns about possible impact of the protest on the economy, pointing out that the plan is already affecting economic activities, with disruptions in logistics and trade. He warned that the protests could send a negative signal about Nigeria’s democratic stability, and further impact investors’ confidence.
“The protest is slowing down the economy already because most people that have movements to make from one place to another, people that have importations or distribution of items are conscious of that protest.”
There are also concerns that the protest would affect foreign direct investments because most international organisations are looking at Nigeria as being volatile.
Similarly, Adegbemi Onakoya, Professor of Business and Applied Economics, said that disruptions resulting from the protests could worsen inflation, as demand for goods and services might not be met.
Additionally, Onakoya expressed worries about the impact on international perceptions of Nigeria’s economic stability, adding that prolonged disturbances could also lead to increased unemployment rates.
Experts in the maritime industry have predicted that the Nigerian ports may lose over N14.2 billion if the protests eventually take place. Stakeholders in the sector, who spoke with Saturday Sun, said that the losses will be huge because vessels will be stranded at the anchorage while importers will incur billions in demurrage as exports will also face setbacks.
President of the Africa Association of Professional Freight Forwarders and Logistics of Nigeria (APFFLON), Frank Ogunojemite, said the situation is going to be very unfortunate if the protests eventually take place.
He warned that if the situation is not properly managed, it might lead to anarchy and lawlessness, looting and destruction of public properties and infrastructure.
“The estimates are rough and based on general assumptions. Actual losses could be higher or lower, depending on the specifics of the situation,” he added.
President of the National Council of Managing Director of Licensed Customs Agents, Lucky Amiwero, affirmed that the losses will be huge because the terminal and port operators work under the Bill of Laden.
“The implications of the protests are going to be huge because cargoes are no longer coming in, people are moving out of the country and relocating out of the ports, it is a very tense situation, which the government must be able to address seriously.
“The tension is high. People are extremely hungry, people have been kicked out of their work completely, children are malnourished, businesses are shut down and many people cannot go to their work. The people in Abuja have not seen what is going on; it is a very serious matter. The earlier the government addresses it, the better,” he added.
The manufacturing sector may not be spared either. Daniel Dickson-Okezie, a Small and Medium Enterprises expert, estimates that Nigeria will likely lose close to N1 Trillion because all the three spending units – the individuals, firms and government – will have to shut down.
He also predicts that the protests will worsen the economic situation in the country. “Already, we are facing a dire situation. The government is going to lose in terms of taxes; firms will lose also; SMEs that are engaged in day-to-day activities will lose also. If the protest is not well managed by the organisers, it may get out of hand and criminal elements may cash in on that to course mayhem, and destabilise the country.”
Frank Onyebu, an ex-chair of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), concurred. He expressed the view that the planned protest will obviously have a negative impact on businesses.
“We must, however, be careful on how we respond to protests. We are running a democracy and must allow dissenting voices so long as the law is not broken. In other words, protests must be peaceful. The police should maintain peace, but as much as possible, not attempt to escalate the situation by disrupting peaceful protests.
“I hope some sort of compromise could be worked out because disruptions of any kind are costly to businesses. Depending on how long and how widespread the protests are, businesses could lose amounts running into billions. This will not augur well for businesses, which are already struggling with so many other challenges. This could be the last straw for a lot of businesses.”
Like other economists, Dr. Salifu Arome, chief executive officer of Africa Youth Growth Foundation, expressed fear that the protests would cost the government billions of naira. He advised that the federal government should take the protest as a feedback mechanism for the level of governance it has provided for the people.
Arome noted that it was within the right for citizens to demonstrate against bad governance, but added that such a demonstration should be done within the ambit of the law.
But Iwuchukwu Chris, another economist, said it was too early to quantify the losses since the exercise had not taken place.
“Do not be surprised that the protest may not even be as serious as we think. But already, people are scared, business owners are circumspect.
“Some are unsure if to restock or not, to avoid destruction, pending the outcome of the exercise. Recall that during the #EndSARS protest, a lot of warehouses were destroyed and goods were stolen.
“The truth is that there is uncertainty in the air. Places like the airports, major highways, universities, hospitals, in fact, business will be affected.