By Keem Abdul
It is difficult to say at this point whether President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s new palliative plan is the result of a Road-to-Damascus epiphany about the present state of the Nigerian nation and the fortunes of its people – or simply an admission that similar plans and schemes in the past had failed. Whatever it is, there is a palpable sense of deja vu about it.
The average Nigerian might be forgiven for shrugging in skepticism regarding this new plan and saying, “I’ve seen this movie before.” It will be interesting to see how the administration intends to dispel the cynical attitude with which the average Nigerian has come to view government-initiated social welfare schemes of this sort.
At issue is the announcement that President Tinubu had approved an uplift grant under the National Construction & Household Support Programme for 3.6 million Nigerian families. This initiative, the FG says, would deliver N50,000 to 100,000 families in each of the 36 states of the federation, plus the FCT, Abuja, for three months.
According to Chief Ajuri Ngelale, presidential spokesman, this disbursement would occur over a three-month period – the objective being to boost agricultural productivity, strengthen the economy by creating opportunities in the real sectors of agriculture, manufacturing and construction, as well as to provide urgent economic relief for Nigerians. Ngelale revealed that another N155 billion was earmarked for the purchase and distribution of assorted foodstuffs across the nation to address concerns about food security and affordability.
According to him, the programme would cover all geo-political zones in the country. Under it, the Sokoto-Badagry Highway, which will traverse Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger, Kwara, Oyo, Ogun, and Lagos, is being prioritized.
That project, the spokesman added, was especially prioritized for its importance, as some of the states it will traverse are strategic to the agricultural sustainability of the nation. Within that corridor, there are 216 agricultural communities, 58 large and medium dams spread across six states, seven Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones (SAPZs), 156 local government areas, 39 commercial cities and towns and over one million hectares of arable land.
Also to enjoy top priority from the FG are the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway (which is currently underway) as well as the Trans-Saharan Highway linking Enugu, Abakaliki, Ogoja, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa and Abuja.
In addition, the spokesman disclosed that other items under the National Construction and Household Support Programme, include:
A one-off allocation to states and the Federal Capital Territory of N10 billion for the procurement of buses and CNG (compressed natural gas) uplift programme;
Provision for labour unions and civil society organizations; and the deployment of N155 billion for the purchase and sale of assorted foodstuff to be distributed across the nation.
Ngelale’s disclosure follows the outcome of the National Economic Council (NEC) meeting held last Thursday in Abuja, at which President Tinubu also urged state governors to work together to meet the needs of their citizens, stating that he was willing to provide the needed support to ensure that Nigerians were relieved of hardship.
The reason is that, though highly laudable in its motivations and conceptualisation, the Household Support plan is fraught with many vexed questions bordering on the source of data used to identify prospective beneficiaries, as well as the overall integrity of the process.
One of these analysts, Frank Tietie, is a lawyer and human rights activist. In a recent conversation with Arise News, he acknowledges the ‘political value’ of what the President is trying to do (that is, douse the tension in the land arising from the excruciating hardship of the people – along with a growing perception that the fat cats in Abuja are so ensconced in the lap of luxury that they don’t care about the people who elected them into office – with a timely mixture of patronage and paternalism).
First, how will the prospective beneficiaries be identified? Much has been said about the Social Register that was drawn up during the immediate past administration of President Muhammadu Buhari, and the need to rely on it in disbursing the monies envisaged by the Tinubu plan. Tietie and others, however, note that the register is incomplete and far from credible.
Remarkably, Ngelale’s announcement last Thursday was silent on how exactly the beneficiaries are to be identified – a silence or oversight that in itself does not exactly bode well for the programme’s effectiveness, integrity and ultimate success.
Second, does it make economic sense? Is it sustainable? On both counts, Tietie’s answer is, No, it doesn’t, and it isn’t. The FG’s Household Support Programme, he says, is NO substitute for a comprehensive restructuring of the economy in a manner that encourages production (rather than the consumption, which is its present orientation). While acknowledging the expected long-term benefits of President Tinubu’s reforms across sectors (such as the 2023 removal of petroleum subsidy payments and the currency floatation policy), he posits that these reforms have been wrongfooted in the timing of their implementation – as a result of which the masses are now suffering unduly.
Third, who will drive these disbursements? As Tietie put it during the Arise interview, Nigerians generally do not trust government officials or politically-exposed persons to handle monetary disbursements with any measure of integrity or efficiency – given their bitter experience with past attempts at disbursements, most notably during the lockdowns occasioned by the COVID-19 pandemic. Civil society, which ought to be a credible alternative in this regard, is no longer perceived to be above board either – a vacuum which, Tietie says, has created a crisis of trust and confidence among the people. Government, he suggests, should fill the vacuum by appointing consultants drawn from the private sector (where governance, for the most part, still adheres to much higher standards of accountability, transparency and alignment with global best practices) to drive the proposed disbursements. At all costs, he warns the Tinubu administration must avoid the disbursements being hijacked by partisanship or seen as yet another ‘us versus them‘ avenue for political patronage. In the current climate, he says, it would create an unacceptable level of tension that could threaten social order and tear apart the country’s fragile unity.
And, fourth, tie any support programmes to JOBS. A good way to start, Tietie says, is by accelerating the National Construction aspect of the programme, and being intentional about its job-creation potential. Palliatives, by themselves, do not solve any economic problems for the long term (and the announcement by government that the household support disbursements are only for a period of three months underscores the temporary nature of palliatives, no matter how well-intentioned).
But jobs are sustainable.
And so, in the end, is a comprehensive economic restructuring agenda that priorities production, manufacturing and export – as well as fostering among our people (especially our young people) a culture of creativity, innovation and hard work. It is only by doing so, say analysts like Tietie, that Nigeria can build an economic edifice that can stand the test of time, and ensure the welfare and security of her people – and ultimately eliminate the need for palliatives, by whatever name they are called.
•Abdul, publisher and writer, hails from Lagos. He can be reached via [email protected]