Ever since members of the opposition in Nigeria’s political landscape gave a hint that an aggregation of their forces could be arranged to confront the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the next general election, there have been mixed feelings. Although merger arrangements had been tried in the country in the past, there is skepticism that the current political actors would forget their personal ambitions and make the required sacrifice. The question has been: Could former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former governor of Anambra State, Mr. Peter Obi, and ex-governor of Kano State, Alhaji Rabiu Kwankwaso, who are the major actors in the opposition at present, for instance, agree that the important thing is for them to collectively work to take away political power from the APC, in the interest of Nigerians and not necessarily who among them would be President?
The joining of forces to achieve a common goal in politics is always anchored on sacrifice and selflessness. Also, there is always the need to select the person who the merger arrangement would be built around for the attainment of success. In 1999, leaders of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) and the All Peoples Party (APP) reckoned that the best way they could challenge the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the presidential election was to forge a common front. The APP and AD which were the second and third strongest at that time, agreed to present one presidential candidate. By then, the parties had conducted their presidential primaries, with Chief Olu Falae, ex-Minister of Finance, emerging as candidate of the AD, and former governor of Abia State, Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu, clinching the ticket of the APP. Chief Olusegun Obasanjo was the presidential standard-bearer of the PDP.
In the merger arrangement of AD and APP, Dr. Onu became the sacrificial lamb for Chief Falae to be the joint candidate of the AD/APP, with Alhaji Umar Shinkafi (of APP) as the vice presidential candidate. Dr. Onu, believing that the important thing was to win the trophy and not who lifts it during celebration time, made the ultimate political sacrifice by stepping down. The AD/APP merger was perfected, the election was held but the coalition could not clinch the presidency of Nigeria, not because it did not work hard for this, but because the opponent was too strong. The PDP won the presidential election and Obasanjo became President. Despite the fact that the merger did not produce the desired result, a strong message was sent to the effect that such an arrangement remains a veritable tool to confront political hegemony.
For the 2015 presidential election, some opposition parties also felt strongly that a merger was required to challenge the PDP. Towards this end, the then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) as well as factions of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)came together to form today’s APC. Leaders of the parties, like current President of Nigeria, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu (again), dropped their personal political ambitions and anchored their quest to take over power on former President, Alhaji Muhammadu Buhari. Buhari was identified as a rallying point and he was given the presidential ticket of the APC. The merger worked and Buhari, nay APC, clinched the Presidency in 2015, defeating an incumbent President, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan.
In the two merger experiments, one thing was common: South-West/North presidential candidacy. While the Falae (South West)/Shinkafi (North-West) combination failed in 1999, the Buhari (North-West)/Yemi Osinbajo (South-West) combination worked. What this shows is that for any merger arrangement to work, there must be a collective group or geopolitical group’s support. In ensuring this, there must also be the buy-in of the third component of the Nigerian tripod.
In the current political dispensation, it will not be an easy task to take power from the APC. For a political party that has held power at the centre for nine years, as at today and 12 years by the next presidential election in 2027, with a formidable and political force as President Tinubu at the centre, to be displaced, the opposition has to work extra hard. Even though the APC may not have done well in government, even though there is despair in the country over the party’s performance in office, even though melancholy pervades the country owing to glaring misrule, it would still be difficult to shove aside the political party and, by extension, President Tinubu. The task of ousting APC, therefore, will certainly not be achieved alone by the PDP, Labour Party or the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), just as it was difficult for ACN, CPC or ANPP working separately to displace PDP in the past. There has to be an alliance for this to happen.
The question is: Who, among Atiku, Obi or Kwankwaso, would be the fulcrum of the opposition parties’ merger arrangement? Would it be Atiku and he gets the support of the North, South-East, South-South and South-West? Would it be Obi and he gets the unflinching support of the South-East, South-South, South-West and the North? Or would it be Kwankwaso and the North, South-East, South-South and South-West would rally round him? Apart from the geopolitical groups’ support, who among the three would resonate more among the youth and the majority of the wide spectrum of the Nigerian society? Who among them is more acceptable?
By their political strength, as shown in the last presidential election, Atiku comes tops, closely followed by Obi, with Kwankwaso coming a distant third. This means that Atiku and Obi are the front-runners. Atiku will be 80 years old at the time the presidential election would hold in 2027. Obi will be 65 years old by then. Even though Atiku may still be strong, articulate and an irresistible force in 2027, would Nigerians be willing to support an 80 years old man for the presidency? And if Nigerians would not mind that, would Atiku agree to do one term in office and take a bow at 85? If Obi is chosen as the centerpiece of the merger, will the North wholly support him? Would the South-East/North alliance work in 2027, as it did in 1979?
As the political space stands now, one is persuaded that a merger built around Peter Obi, with the strong and sincere commitment of the whole opposition political parties and political forces in the country, may fly better. Peter Obi has emerged as a beacon of hope for many Nigerians disillusioned with the country’s current political trajectory. His message of reforms, economic revitalisation and good governance has resonated with the youth and the working class who are eager for a new direction.
Obi’s popularity and influence are crucial assets in any merger negotiations. His commitment to transparency, accountability, and democratic values aligns with the aspirations of many Nigerians, making him an ideal candidate to lead a unified opposition front. Moreover, Peter Obi’s political ideology transcends party lines, focusing on the welfare of the Nigerian people rather than personal interests. His leadership would ensure a merger that prioritises the country’s needs over partisan politics.
Atiku and Kwankwaso, both seasoned politicians and leaders in their own right, have a crucial role to play in this unity effort. By supporting Peter Obi as the central figure in a political party merger, they can help create a powerful alliance that will give the APC a run for its money. Atiku and Kwankwaso possess a wealth of experience and political capital that would be invaluable to a united opposition. By throwing their weight behind Peter Obi, they can help galvanise a movement that will sweep across the country, capturing the imagination of Nigerians from all walks of life.
Yes, by supporting Peter Obi, Atiku and Kwankwaso can help create a merger that is not just about political expediency but about building a better future for Nigeria. They will be demonstrating that the interest of the country supersedes personal ambition, and that they are willing to put the country first.
Indeed, a united opposition with Peter Obi at its centre, supported by Atiku and Kwankwaso, may be the only way to defeat the APC in 2027. This unity will send a powerful message to Nigerians that the opposition is ready to put aside their differences and work towards a common goal: A better Nigeria for all.