By Vincent Kalu and Femi Folaranmi
A week to the off-season governorship elections in Bayelsa, Imo and Kogi States, the security agencies and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) are in final push to ensure a hitch-free electoral process, even as concerns have continued to be expressed over the state of the states, security-wise.
Bayelsa:
For Bayelsa, Saturday Sun findings indicated that ad-hoc electoral workers to be used in the elections have been trained across the state. The training was held between Friday October 27 and Sunday October 29.
But the training of the ad-hoc staff is the least of concerns as there is serious apprehension over security for the election, especially owing to utterances of party chieftains.
INEC Chairman, Prof Mahmood Yakubu has met with the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) to discuss security modalities for the elections.
Elections in the state, because of its terrain, have always been dicey with 70 per cent of the state surrounded by water. The difficult terrain has made it very tedious for security agencies to effectively police the state.
Beyond that, the stakes are very high in the election and politicians are throwing everything, including threats and propaganda into the contest to ensure their party comes out tops.
For instance, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressive Congress (APC) have engaged in recriminations over threats of attack on party members in the eight local government areas of the state which has elevated the status of Bayelsa as a flashpoint for the election.
As part of efforts to allay the fears of the electorate on security concerns, the Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa was in Bayelsa with a powerful team to meet all arms of the armed forces to be involved in the election.
The terrain of Bayelsa makes it mandatory that the Navy is involved in securing the waterways where more than 80 per cent of sensitive electoral materials are to be transported to the various polling units. Also, in some instances, the Air Force has been used to airlift sensitive materials to prevent it being hijacked by political thugs.
At an interactive session with the various different security agencies held at the Harold Dappa Priye Memorial Hall, Onopa, Musa harped that the security agencies are determined to ensure a credible electoral process.
According to him, in line with the directive of the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the era of ballot snatching and electoral violence is gone as the military will deal decisively with those planning to cause trouble.
Musa declared that any member of the Armed Forces caught undermining the election risks court-martial.
“We want to warn those who think it is their birthright to perpetrate violence during elections that henceforth it is not going to be business as usual,” he said.
Sources at the police headquarters disclosed that the Inspector- General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun is expected in the state to meet with his officers, who are the first line of security for the election.
The source stated that more Commissioners of Police will be deployed to the state to man the eight local government areas, especially places identified as flash points. These include Nembe, Southern Ijaw, Kolokuma/ Opokuma, Brass and Ogbia to ensure there is enough police presence for the electoral to exercise their franchise.
While the conventional security agencies are putting things in place to ensure a smooth election, the political parties especially have introduced a spiritual dimension to the election.
The APC women have been engaging in special prayers at the Women secretariat located at Mike Okpokor junction. The spiritual programme, which involves fasting, has as its major point a peaceful election.
Also, the PDP led by Governor Douye Diri in the countdown to the Annual Bayelsa State Thanksgiving has had a three days solemn assembly with prayers focusing on a peaceful election.
Imo
Even though INEC has cleared 17 candidates for next week’s Imo State governorship election, the contest is believed to be just among three candidates– the incumbent governor, Hope Uzodimma of the All Progressives Congress (APC); Athan Nneji Achonu of the Labour Party (LP) and Samuel Anyanwu of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Uzodimma has been the governor since 2020 after the Supreme Court nullified the election of Emeka Ihedioha of the PDP and declared him the winner of the 2019 governorship polls.
Senator Achonu, the LP candidate served briefly in the National Assembly as a senator before the courts sacked him. He is also banking on the LP’s success in the South East during the February and March general elections. Senator Anyanwu was the national secretary of the PDP before he emerged the candidate of the party.
Many factors would determine the direction of the pendulum at the end of the day. The high level of insecurity in the state may be the strongest point in determining who wins the election, as the exercise may witness low voter apathy.
Insecurity has been a major challenge in the South East region for some time now, and Imo State is one of the most affected.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had about two weeks ago complained that they were yet to get about 6,000 ad hoc staff for the election in the state. Unlike in the past where people rushed to get INEC work during election because of the monetary reward, this time around because of the fear of the “unknown gunmen” many are afraid to take the job, which they consider risky.
Another issue is voter apathy. Apart from the security challenges in the state that may force people to stay in their homes instead of going to polling units, there is likely to be voter apathy, as many seem to believe that their votes might not count during the election.
For the LP and the PDP candidates, they are going about their campaigns with the optimism that they would win.
Kogi:
As Kogi State residents gear up to elect their governor from the 18 candidates from different political parties during next week’s governorship election, it has been stated that what will guide their choice may not necessarily be the manifestoes or the campaign promises of the candidates or their capacities, experiences and merits, but their ethnic backgrounds.
Since this political dispensation commenced, ethnic sentiments have been a determinant factor in the direction the pendulum swing for governorship election in the state.
Kogi, like other states, has three senatorial zones – Kogi West, comprising majorly the Okun people, where the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Sen. Dino Melaye comes from, Kogi Central, comprising mostly the Ebira people, where the incumbent governor, Yahaya Bello is from, and Kogi East, which is mostly composed of the Igala.
The candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Ahmed Usman Ododo, a former Auditor General for Local Government of the state comes from Kogi Central, like the incumbent. They claimed that Kogi East, where the Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate, Murtala Yakubu Ajaka, comes from, has held the office for four times. Kogi East has the highest number of people in the state. No one from Kogi West has occupied the governor’s office since 1999.
Equity, justice and fair play are not given consideration in order for all the zones to have a taste of the governorship of the state, as it is done in some states. That is the more reason Kogi governorship election is among the most volatile in the country, and this one is seen as a battle no one is ready to lose.
The three main contenders in the election are Ododo Usman Ahmed (APC), Dino Melaye (PDP) and Murtala Yakubu Ajaka (SDP).
This is the first time since the creation of the state that the three major ethnic groups – Igala, Ebira and Okun will engage in a battle for supremacy. In the past, it was two major tribes facing each other and using the third major tribe as bargaining chip. Based on voting strength, none of these three ethnic nationalities can singlehandedly make one of their own governor. So, the ethnic minorities like Bassa Nge, Bassa Kwomu, Nupe, Ogori-Magongo and non-indigenes may likely decide who wins this year’s governorship election.
There are some factors that may shape next week’s election. This includes insecurity. Political violence is not uncommon in the state. On June 3, this year, there was a clash between the convoy of the governor and that of SPD’s Murtala Ajaka. Speaking on the clash, Governor Bello said: “Let it be the first and last time an antelope will cross the lion’s way. Next time, there will be no warning”.
Since 2003, incidence of violence have become one of the characteristics of elections in the state. In 2019, the entire nation cringed over the barbaric killing of a woman, Salome Abuh, a staunch member of the PDP, who was burnt alive in her house shortly after the announcement of the results of the governorship election. Recent developments shows 2023 may not be different from the violence of previous election years.
Recently, suspected political thugs invaded and vandalised the SDP campaign office in Lokoja, the state capital. After accusations and counter-claims, the hoodlums returned to the same campaign office and set it ablaze. There have been reports of attack on the APC secretariat in Igalamela-Odolu Local Government. The signs are ominous and if allowed to fester, it will surely affect the election with the possibility of low turnout of voters.
Secondly, the power of incumbency cannot be ruled out. Bello is trying to put his political god son in the state, and he will do whatever he can to accomplish that task.
There is also the challenge that flooding may pose. Although flooding has not been considered an issue so far, there is the fear that flooding may affect the election. The logistics of moving voting materials around the state may experience some hiccups, unless INEC devises strategies to overcome such hiccups.