The World Bank shocked many Nigerians recently when it predicted that it would take Nigeria 10 to 15 years to fix the economy. It also predicted that it would take Nigeria 100 years to eradicate poverty. Just before Nigerians could absorb the shock, it released another thunderbolt that further hike in the price of petrol would reverse the gains of subsidy removal. The Senior Vice President, World Bank Group, Indermit Gill, made the first prediction when he spoke at the 30th Nigerian Economic Summit Group meeting. He said that Nigeria must do everything in its power to protect the most vulnerable citizens from hardship, as their lives and the lives of Nigeria’s 110 million children depend on it. According to him, “Nigeria will need to stay the course for at least another 10 to 15 years to transform its economy. So, I don’t know if you’re agreeing with me or if you’re disagreeing with me. If it does that, it will transform its economy, and it will become an engine of growth in sub-Saharan Africa.”
Gill went on to point out that, “this is the lesson from the last 40 years, as well as the experience of countries such as India, Poland, Korea, and Norway. Gill said that Nigeria needs the reforms from 2003 to 2007. He regretted that the reforms were not sustained. Gill also admitted that the government’s fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate reforms are hurting everyone, especially ordinary Nigerians, who are struggling with the high prices of food and transport.
He urged the Nigerian policymakers to do three things in the coming year to make the economy bounce back. They must prioritize non-oil growth. The second is to help every vulnerable household cope with inflation. It also has to make the economy more business-ready and other remedies or bitter pills that usually come from Breton Woods’ institutions. In the second prediction, the World Bank was quoted as saying that low and medium-income countries across the world, which are battling extreme poverty including Nigeria, may need up to 100 years to end the scourge.
The global bank’s projections are contained in the “Poverty, Prosperity and Planet Report,” the first after the COVID-19 pandemic. Extreme poverty refers to those who live below $2.15 per day. For Nigeria and many other countries battling to end poverty, the World Bank believes that the global goal of ending poverty by 2030 is no longer feasible. Not less than 700 million people live on less than $2.15 per day. According to the World Bank Senior Managing Director, Axel van Trotsenburg, “after decades of progress, the world is experiencing serious setbacks in the fight against global poverty, a result of intersecting challenges that include slow economic growth, the pandemic, high debt, conflict and fragility, and climate shocks.”
The last prediction from the World Bank is a warning to Nigeria’s policymakers that further hike in the pump price of petrol or Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) will hurt the economy. It says that such hike will jeopardize the fragile economic recovery following the removal of fuel subsidy. The bank’s alarm is contained in the October edition of Africa’s Pulse report.
It is good that the government has diplomatically reacted to the World Bank’s advice which it described as “both enriching and exhilarating.” It is commendable that the government did not dismiss what the World Bank said as was the usual practice in our government cycle. But it did not reveal how it is going to tackle the challenge.
While I will agree to some of the views expressed by the Breton Wood Institution about Nigeria’s economy, excruciating poverty, and warning over further hike in the price of petrol, I beg to disagree with the bank’s timeframe it will take Nigeria to fix the economy. I equally disagree with them on the period it will take Nigeria and some other countries to end poverty. I regard the latter two as voodoo predictions. I say so because the figures contained in the timeframes are unrealistic.
It is not true that it will take between 10 and 15 years to revamp Nigeria’s ailing economy. With our agricultural resources, oil and gas and abundant solid minerals, Nigeria’s bad economy can be fixed in four years. It will not take us eternity to fix the economy. What it requires to fix it is creative and imaginative leadership at all levels of government, beginning with the central government. The World Bank should stop giving us conflicting information on how we can get the economy out of the woods. After all, the removal of fuel subsidy and other economic policies of this administration and even others before it have the imprimatur of the World Bank and its sister the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Our governments, whether civilian or military have been following the economic copy book of these two famous Breton Wood Institutions. They have been administering us their bitter pills which at the end do not cure the ills they were tailor-made for. Let those in these two financial institutions take note that the cure-all remedies do not work for every country. They should know that every country and indeed every democracy has its own peculiarities. The removal of fuel subsidy based on their advice is a disaster for our economy.
There is no country that does not subsidize one product or commodity or the other. Some subsidize food items and other goods. For us in Nigeria, our natural subsidy is petrol which is at the centre of the nation’s economy. Any hike in fuel price will reflect immediately in virtually all sectors of the economy. The hunger in the land is not necessarily because of food scarcity or food shortage but the effect of the price of petrol on transportation. Most of our foods are produced in the rural areas. They must be transported to the urban areas for millions of Nigerians to access them.
On the bank’s prediction of ending poverty in 100 years, I disagree with them. It did not take this period for some countries to end poverty. It will not take us such a donkey period for us to end poverty. We have enough arable land for the production of foods. We need to embark on mechanized agriculture involving large-scale farming for us to produce enough food for the population and even for export. We must invest in high-yielding seedlings and improved breeds of goats, sheep and cows for animal husbandry. The same can be applied to fisheries, poultry and crop farming as well. The government should show great interest in farming and agro-business.
We need crops and even animals that are genetically modified. That is one of the best ways we can really grow enough food and meat for our teeming population. The 36 state governors and 774 chairmen of councils must invest in agriculture. Every state and every local government must engage in farming especially in agricultural produce it has comparative advantage. While some can be net producers of cassava, yam, cocoyam, palm oil and cashew nuts, others can produce dates, wheat, maize, millet, rice, soyabeans, beans, coffee, tea, groundnuts. Yet others can specialize in producing cocoa, rubber, kolanuts, chicken, eggs, goats, cattle and dairy products.
Agriculture can earn Nigeria more money than crude oil and gas. We have not even tapped our gas resources as well as other solid minerals which illegal foreign miners are daily exploiting across the country. If we are serious about agriculture, we must do away with heavy food imports. We must reduce our appetite for foreign goods. We must produce what we can eat. We must curtail our imports and increase our exports. For us to achieve the much-needed economic buoyancy, we must restructure the country and our politics so that every zone will be economically productive and viable.
The present system where everyone comes to Abuja at the end of every month to share the national revenue will not develop the economy and the country. Our feeding-bottle model of federation is a recipe for economic disaster and backwardness. It is never meant for economic recovery and growth. Good enough, we have millions of young men and women who can jump-start economic development if they are given the enablers. Nigeria is a land full of milk and honey. What is required is putting millions of Nigerians to work and produce the milk and honey for everyone. Enough of these voodoo predictions.