In the next 48 hours, Nigerians will go out to exercise their right to elect their national leaders.
They will pick from the array of interests who their President, senators and members of the House of Representatives would be.
Whomsoever they pick will have their mandate to lead the country into 2027 in the first instance. That is why the call to vote wisely means a lot.
It is about the progress of Nigeria. But it means much more for the South East. For the people of the region, it is a choice between May 29, 2023, the next eight years, or the next 16 years.
Whichever one they decide to fly with will be their democratic choice brought upon themselves by themselves.
Here is what I mean. When the South East canvass voting wisely, it is about making a choice between Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP).
Opinions differ on which way people of the region should go. However, as a people operating under a democracy, the arithmetic of the consequence of their votes on February 23 ought to bring the emerging reality home to them.
For instance, if Tinubu’s APC wins, the consequence is that Tinubu will be President for eight years.
That will be seen as taking the turn of the South. By the run of time on his tenure, power will shift to the North by way of respecting the rotation clause adopted by APC.
The implication of this is that South East would have to wait for a total of 16 years to have the opportunity to launch another demand for the top office. Then, too, the contest will be very strongly contested with the South-South. And nothing bars the South West from contesting too. It is their democratic right to do so. What happens then will be left to the imagination.
On the other hand, if Atiku and the PDP are elected (as is likely), the implication would be that the Igbo nation would have put in a leg in the presidency with brighter prospects of succeeding the administration in eight years.
This would be logical proof that the Igbo nation is closer to the presidency through Atiku and PDP than through any other political party.
The eight years of Atiku would also serve as a window for the Igbo nation to put its house in order, re-organise itself better, build more political bridges and friendships as well as work on its internal leadership recruitment process for the production of a candidate that would be acceptable to all geopolitical zones and ethnic nationalities in the country. Presently, they do not have it.
This is very important given the realities of the numbers released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on the voting strength of the six geopolitical zones.
According to INEC figures, the North West boasts the highest voter population of 22.25 million, with the South West following closely with 17.95 million voters. North Central has 15.36 million, and South-South has 14.44 million. North East has 12.54 million, while the South East has 10.90 million.
This reality does not give the South East the mathematical advantage that it needs to win the presidential election this year. There are arguments that Igbo people are all over the place and may have swelled the voters’ population in the other regions.
While it is true that Igbo people are settled in other parts of the country, internal migration is, however, not the exclusive preserve of the Igbo people. Secondly, there is no scientific proof that Igbo people living outside the South East will vote only for an Igbo candidate nor is there also a scientific study to show that even Igbo people in the South East will all vote only for Igbo candidates.
PDP and APC, as well as the other political parties, will get votes from the region.
Besides, analysing the voters according to their geopolitical zones and maybe ethnic nationalities put the Igbo nation at a disadvantage. Southern Nigeria need not get into a contest for population with the North.
The simple calculation of marriage and birth indices shows that the population figures will always tilt toward a northern majority. This indicator suggests that for the South East to have its leg in the presidency of Nigeria, it must work on itself and create a new atmosphere for better understanding and alliance with the North.
Other parts of Nigeria ought to be brought to the table to understand and appreciate the South East’s demand. This should be about political convenience to achieve a desired outcome. It is not about what some youths call slavery. Most times, you stoop to conquer. Like the late Sen. Arthur Nzeribe once said: “A ga akpa ya akpa (it must be discussed).”
This is why the South East must vote wisely. Voting wisely would mean using the available minority votes to build alliances and vital bridges into the future. This is what the Igbo nation did that made it assume the number two position, through Dr. Alex Ekwueme, nine years after the civil war ended.
The Igbo nation also got the speakership of the House of Representatives through the late Edwin Umezeoke.
These are historical facts that were achieved as part of the gains of political dialogue and alliance built by visionary leaders from the South East region.
The alternative now is to further destroy these vital linkages without asking deeper questions about how present political leaders from the region had held the region down and created the analogy that is forcing the people to further ostracize themselves from the centre through acts of violence and destruction of lives and properties.
The Igbo must recall their cries of marginalisation under the APC administration of President Muhammadu Buhari who publicly declared, before the international community, that he wouldn’t treat people that gave him 5 per cent of his winning votes the same he would treat those that gave him 97 per cent.
While they make such a recall, they should also see the reality of their actions in rejecting Buhari on the two occasions he contested for the presidency with their sons, Dr. Chuba Okadigbo and Dr. Umezeoke. It is common knowledge that likeness begets likeness. The Igbo nation must think and vote wisely.
If the Igbo nation work to empower APC to retain the presidency this Saturday, by denying PDP of their supportive votes, they would have effectively and comprehensively created a narrative that would further ostracize them from the government at the centre for another 16 years.
Perhaps, the only beneficiaries would be the few individuals that support the party in the region, as it is presently. And no tears will be shed for such self-inflicted wounds.