As we approach the 2023 presidential election, it is necessary to draw some parallels and perhaps differences among former office holders in Nigeria, namely, a former President, three former state governors, and the three leading presidential candidates.
In 2010, Bukola Saraki, two-time governor of Kwara State, said: “It is time for a new generation to build a modern Nigeria.” That statement gave the impression that the unique selling point of his campaign was generational change. However, generational change would make a lot of sense only if the person campaigning for such age-based difference can show substantial evidence that they have pragmatic plans to move the nation in a direction that would produce innovative results.
Unfortunately, Saraki’s campaign statement contained no such plans. He was strong on political rhetoric but pathetic in terms of absence of clear mechanisms through which he planned to implement his programme.
Surely, Saraki’s speech was stuffed with political appellations about the need to engage the younger generation in national leadership. He also referred frequently and broadly to his numerous achievements since he became governor of Kwara State in May 2003. But success at the state level is not necessarily a good indicator of a politician’s ability or potential to succeed at the national level.
In his formal campaign speech in 2010, Saraki said: “If truth be told, you are not asking for much from your government. You just want the custodians of our commonwealth to give you good roads, good hospitals, good schools and a constant supply of electricity. You want potable water, food to eat and a roof over your head.”
Bola Ahmed Tinubu, presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), has been making similar claims.
In the ongoing presidential election campaigns, Tinubu has been speaking rather incoherently and incomprehensibly about how he single-handedly developed Lagos, a claim that has been contested in the public domain by senior politicians and ordinary citizens who have profound knowledge of the true history of Lagos.
The challenge that faces Tinubu is how to convince voters across the country that he provided these basic needs and services to the people of Lagos State during his term as governor. It is not only the Federal Government that has responsibility for providing infrastructure and social services to citizens. To what extent did Tinubu provide basic and quality services to people in his state?
Prior to his election as President, the late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua spoke glowingly about his eight-year tenure as governor of Katsina State as proof of the economic and social transformations he bequeathed to Katsina State. But his inability to perform as President at the national level later showed that Yar’Adua’s success in Katsina may have been overstated to the point where voters were misled in 2007 to believe that Yar’Adua was the man who brought economic prosperity and improved living standards to the people of Katsina.
Eight years after his reign in Katsina and long before his death, many people in Katsina still dispute Yar’Adua’s so-called economic miracle in Katsina. Whether or not he was outstanding and exceptional in Katsina, one point remained incontrovertible: Yar’Adua’s performance as President was uninspiring.
Overwhelmed perhaps by the complications of his ill health and the enormity of the problems that confronted him in Abuja, Yar’Adua pleaded in his first anniversary speech for national understanding and more time, saying he was still a learner. The nation accepted his pleas in good faith and gave him more time to get moving.
The first sign that Yar’Adua couldn’t handle national problems emerged when the man took more than six months to stitch together his cabinet. Unfortunately, when the new team was presented to the nation, it turned out to be nothing more than a reincarnation of the old and incompetent team. From then on, things never really changed. The country sank deeper and deeper into leadership vacuum.
Nigerians learned regrettably from the wobbly leadership that Yar’Adua presented, including his health challenges. Against this background, the question remains: To what extent do Nigerians want to condemn themselves to the experience of life under Yar’Adua’s presidency? The question is necessary and relevant because Tinubu, the APC presidential candidate, has, like Yar’Adua, his personal health challenges and, unlike Yar’Adua, age is not on Tinubu’s side.
As for Peter Obi of the Labour Party, the track record of his achievements when he served as governor of Anambra State is verifiable and has been validated by people from different political camps. During his campaign appearances, he presented practical and undisputable examples of his achievements in Anambra State, including evidence of his financial management skills.
On its own, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is so fragmented by internal squabbles that it is difficult to hear any message emanating from its presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar. The PDP is the proverbial house divided against itself. There are different factions pushing different agenda. There is the faction led by Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike. Just last week, the PDP suspended some prominent members on grounds of anti-party activities, thus complicating its journey to electoral success.
These disruptions have taken the momentum and energy off the campaign of Atiku. It is difficult to see how the party can unify its members, refocus its presidential election campaign, heal the wounds created by various distressed members and march to the February 25 presidential election with one voice.
These comparisons show that the challenges of leadership come in different dimensions and the magnitude of the problems is also dissimilar. The difficulties of leadership are also different at state and federal levels. Here is an example to illustrate this argument.
Tinubu might have a lot to say about his contributions to Nigeria’s political firmament. But we must not lose sight of the fact that he carries with him two major liabilities that are beyond his powers to rectify, even if he wins the presidential election, and even if he believes he was the man who created Lagos State. Both burdens have the potential to undermine his presidency, if he wins the election.
First, based on his recent campaign appearances, Tinubu’s health condition appears to be deteriorating rather than improving. His current complicated frail health certainly cannot stand the pressures associated with the office of President. More specifically, how would Tinubu perform and how would he stop his vibrating hands when he interacts with world leaders at intergovernmental meetings in which no President or prime minister is allowed to bring along their retinue of aides?
Quite frankly, Tinubu as President represents an effigy of embarrassment awaiting Nigeria at every international intergovernmental meeting. We saw what happened to ageing Paul Biya of Cameroun at an international forum. Do we want to see a Nigerian President humiliate himself and our country in the global community?
After 62 years of independence, Nigerians do not want political dead woods but young political achievers. We don’t want politicians who make fallacious claims or presidential candidates who are attuned to empty chatter about their unremarkable record of performance. Voters want an educated, well-informed and responsible President who can demonstrate leadership skills.
Nigeria has been in coma for decades. No one knows how to revive the sleeping giant of Africa. Every election is an important opportunity to reimagine and reconfigure Nigeria, to make the country whole again and to unite the multi-ethnic, multicultural and multireligious populations.
Unfortunately, there are no ready-made strategies to achieve these objectives. Nigeria has come a long way. The country needs a President with vision who can drive us forward. That President must not be an old breed and recycled politician.