From Romanus Ugwu, Abuja
As every general election in the country draws nearer, particularly since the beginning of the Fourth Republic, a combination of traditional, negative and positive incidents typically unfold, heralding the election season and activating Nigerians into an election mood. These incidents have become an indispensable part of the election build-up. Often, they manifest as negative politics displayed through brute vindictiveness, disturbing resurgence of insecurity including kidnapping, banditry, terrorism, and even suicide bombing that frequently result in numerous casualties.
The election season also typically brings ruthless politically motivated killings, premature proliferation of manual and electronic campaign billboards and posters, dubious economic achievements presented as genuine successes from local and foreign financial reports, and needless foreign loan borrowings aimed at beguiling the electorate and deceptively raising funds for campaigns. It equally features defections to ruling parties at both federal and state levels, often driven by selfish interests, and the offer of automatic sole tickets to incumbents and other elected officials.
According to political observers, the clamping down on opposition aspirants and political parties by ruling parties, aimed at crushing, intimidating, and silencing them, is another common incident. This often involves planting moles to foment endless internal leadership crises and deploying other ruthless measures to stifle opposing forces. Similarly, opposition parties forming strong ad hoc coalitions to challenge and diminish the overwhelming influence of ruling parties, with the aim of wresting power from them, is also a characteristic of approaching election seasons.
In retrospect, almost all these significant incidents have transpired throughout the Fourth Republic, from the administrations of former Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Yar’Adua, Goodluck Jonathan, and Muhammadu Buhari, and are currently being observed under President Bola Tinubu.
Recall that in the Fourth Republic’s first political dispensation, Justice Minister and Attorney-General of the Federation, Bola Ige, and the national vice chairman of the then-largest opposition party, the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Marshall Harry, were alleged victims of political killings that sent shockwaves across the country.
More specifically, during former President Jonathan’s administration, although he did not win his re-election bid in the 2015 presidential election, similar incidents included his adoption as the PDP’s sole candidate. His endorsements were so widespread that he was considered to have received an unprecedented number of endorsements as an incumbent. There was even a strong political campaign machine called Transformation Ambassadors of Nigeria (TAN), led by the late Senator Ifeanyi Ubah, which campaigned for his re-election at the grassroots level across the country.
Curiously, there was an unfortunate and unprecedented spike in insecurity, resulting in the bombing of Police headquarters and United Nations’ buildings in Abuja, which were successfully attacked with several casualties. The period became so tense that the FCT Abuja recorded the highest number of suicide bombings, widespread apprehension, and a lamentable proliferation of concrete barricades around several public office buildings.
Similarly, the campaign signals in the build-up to former President Buhari’s re-election bid were somewhat similar. He not only received endorsements from APC leaders and stakeholders as the party’s sole candidate but also nursed early re-election ambitions years before his first tenure expired, despite spending much of that tenure in a London hospital. There was also a premature upsurge of campaign billboards in strategic positions and the distribution of campaign posters to announce his interest in the race.
Expectedly, from all indications so far, the political realities and occurrences observed in previous election build-ups are already visible ahead of the 2027 general elections. These are incidentally not different from past realities. Across the North, South, East, and West, the negative and positive signals that usually characterize major elections are already manifesting in a disturbing, widespread manner.
For example, opposition parties are already engaged in a fierce struggle to strategize and build a winning political machine to outsmart the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), through a coalition. As part of their strategy, this coalition may involve either floating a new political party or merging their various political structures into an existing party platform to field strong candidates that will challenge the APC effectively.
For months now, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) 2023 presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, has led other politicians like the Labour Party (LP) 2023 presidential candidate, Peter Obi, former governors Mallam Nasir El-rufai, Chibuike Amaechi and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Babachir Lawal, among others, to plot a political strategy aimed at challenging the APC-led administration through an opposition coalition. This coalition has not only raised the political temperature in the country and heightened public awareness but has also put the ruling party in a state of panic, as they speculate about the coalition’s next moves and strategies.
Although some political analysts opine that the coalition is unlikely to succeed due to factors such as the colliding aspirations of its major movers, the disinterest of key northern politicians already positioning themselves as Tinubu’s successors in 2031, and Tinubu’s own determined, single-minded, well-resourced, and state-sanctioned efforts to undermine it, its backers have not given up. They have resorted to harsh criticisms of the APC-led government’s policies, sometimes describing them with derogatory expressions.
Only recently, while delivering a goodwill message at an event to mark Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi’s 60th birthday, former governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-rufai, described government’s elected and appointed officials as “urban bandits.” Differentiating them from bandits operating in rural areas, El-rufai stated: “Nigeria is in its biggest trouble since 1914, and that is why we are together working and conspiring to build a coalition to take Nigeria back on track because it is off track. It has turned to this level because we have allowed bandits, not the ones in the bushes, but the ones in the urban area, called the urban bandits, to take over leadership.”
He continued, “I believe that the problem we have is that we just get incompetent people and hand over leadership to them. Most of them don’t really know what to do. They just know how to grab power but don’t know what to do with it. I urge Nigerians to stand up and vote for leaders who have the competence, capability, capacity, and commitment to move the country forward.”
However, the APC-led administration is also not relenting or lowering its guard in destabilising and disarming its detractors. Part of the counterforce measures adopted by the ruling party to quieten the opposition coalition included the recent offer of automatic sole candidate tickets to President Tinubu, and to a significant extent, the party’s first-term governors, and almost all members of both chambers of the National Assembly. Beyond the endorsements, party supporters have also deployed the usual tactics of erecting large billboards and displaying campaign posters in strategic places to signal their determination to ensure victory for the ruling party.
The current administration has also subtly employed a tactic many critics and political pundits call a “membership shopping spree,” coercively convincing members of opposition parties to join the ruling party. As of the last count, several opposition political figures, including many state governors, especially from the PDP, and surprisingly its 2023 vice-presidential candidate, among other politicians, have all defected to the APC.
However, these political developments in the build-up to the 2027 general elections seem mild compared to the ominous signs of the recent resurgence of insecurity across the country. Before now, many Nigerians strongly believed the claims of both the federal government and security forces that the activities of terrorists, bandits, and kidnappers had been decimated. But the resurgence in their operations has spiraled in recent months, culminating even in an alleged suicide bombing that surprisingly occurred at a military barracks in Abuja, the seat of power.
Again, perhaps in the build-up to the forthcoming general elections, terrorist activities have increased in the North East geopolitical zone, causing havoc, displacing many communities, and regrettably invading military bases, killing soldiers and allegedly taking some hostage. Other geopolitical zones have also not been spared, as kidnappers are running riot, extorting huge sums of money as ransom and even killing their victims despite receiving the demanded payments.
Whether a coincidence or planned, for example, an APC ward chairman was needlessly killed in Ondo State by his abductors even after the requested ransom was paid. The situation is even more precarious in Benue, Enugu, and Taraba states, where suspected herdsmen are inflicting pain, sorrow, agony, and bloodshed on innocent, defenseless villagers. Unfortunately, this situation has continued without a clear hope of being resolved soon.
However, dismissing claims that the ruling party has abandoned governance for early campaigning and that there is a relapse in security across the country in the build-up to the 2027 general elections, the party’s National Publicity Secretary, Felix Morka, blamed it on the hostilities of opposition politicians de-campaigning the APC-led government.
“Who is campaigning? Nobody is campaigning. Endorsement is not campaigning. A vote of confidence is something that is routine in any organization. People wake up and decide to pass a vote of confidence in someone or an institution; that is not campaigning,” Morka argued.
He continued, “I don’t think the way you framed it is correct. In any case, if anyone is worried that APC is campaigning, which we are not, are they also not worried that the opposition is campaigning through all the activities going on from their side? Creating coalitions every day, finding faults, creating false narratives about the government and trying to also discredit the government and make themselves look good. Are you also worried about that? Because if you are worried about the APC endorsing an individual or the president, you should also be worried that the opposition is campaigning.”
Defending his party further, the spokesperson stated: “Now that the opposition and the APC are campaigning, I don’t speak for them, I would imagine as a democrat that people are free to engage. And engaging is part of the democratic process. I think we are confusing or conflicting INEC timelines for certain actions with the freedom and democratic liberty of people, citizens, politicians to express themselves. Those expressions may come politically, they come even in partisan notes, but that doesn’t mean anyone is campaigning. When we campaign, I don’t think you would be wondering. You will know for sure that we are campaigning, but we are not doing that for now.”
Regardless, the reality is that the political season has already begun, and it is aimed at early awakening of the electorate’s consciousness.