From Romanus Ugwu, Abuja
The alignment and realignment for the 2027 presidential election, from all indications, have begun to gather momentum, with political actors, especially from the opposition parties toying with different ideas and strategies to outsmart each other in picking the ticket.
Everywhere one turns, there are obvious signs that the political season is not only here, but has expectedly come with the usual permutations and increased speculations of the probable joint tickets the contestants would opt for.
Interestingly, the alignment, realignment, and permutations have underscored a singular mission of an intensive game plan by the political actors to form a formidable counter force that will give the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), a shocker and good run for their money in the forthcoming presidential poll.
The permutation for a probable joint ticket, surprisingly, is not even limited to only the opposition parties alone. It, also shockingly, involved the ruling party, particularly the endless speculations over the political future of Vice President Kashim Shettima and the uncertainty of President Bola Tinubu retaining him as running mate for the presidential election.
As the permutations gain more traction, it also unwittingly heightened the speculations of possibly sacrificing Shettima for other northern political figures considered to have more political clout, with surprisingly former Speaker House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara and or the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) 2023 presidential candidate, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, among others as a possible replacement.
The permutations have equally come in the form and shape of a coalition involving disgruntled members of the opposition political parties that have been endlessly exploring options to aid them in actualising their ultimate aspiration of first, building a solid political force to battle the APC-led administration to a total submission and secondly, to ultimately snatch the presidential ticket from its clutches.
And by way of matching words with actions, there was information from Atiku’s camp claiming that the Adamawa-born politician is finally considering the possibility of not only dumping the PDP and pitching tent with the African Democratic Congress (ADC), but also reconsidering forging new political alignment with Peter Obi, as his running mate for the 2027 polls.
Atiku’s decision to leave the PDP may, perhaps, be linked to the warning from a member of the party’s Board of Trustees (BoT), Chief Bode George, that the opposition party will meet its end if he (Atiku) secures the party’s 2027 presidential ticket.
George, an octogenarian, had while appearing on a television programme recently, cautioned that: “If Atiku picks PDP’s ticket, that is the end of this party. If he picks it by manipulation, which was what was done the last time, we will not accept it.”
But, beyond Bode George’s posture, the possibility of Atiku contesting on the ticket of the PDP even looks very slim, considering the fact that the party’s leaders are already working at cross purposes in the build-up to the forthcoming presidential election.
While Atiku has since pitched his tent with the coalition, the governors on the platform of the main opposition party, the PDP, led by Bala Mohammed, have disassociated themselves outrightly from the coalition.
Again, the situation has not only been worsened by some PDP governors turning their backs on the coalition but the fact that some of them are already finalising plans and sealing agreements to either join the ruling APC or form a strategic partnership with President Tinubu to deliver their states to him, made the case irredeemable. For instance, Akwa-Ibom, a traditional PDP state for the past 26 years, has announced through its Governor, Umo Eno, that the state would be supporting President Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election.
However, Atiku’s speculated exit from the PDP may not have come as a surprise to many Nigerians and political pundits because it was a prophecy recently foretold by his 2023 running mate, Ifeanyi Okowa, who hinted that he (Atiku) is already on his way out of the party.
In reality, therefore, given that one can never say never in politics, any permutation concerning the possibility of the bigwigs running on the same ticket may not hold waters for now due to many factors and perhaps the major actors’ previously strained relationship.
For example, it remains to be seen how practicable the partnership between Atiku and Obi or the speculated Obi and El-Rufai’s proposed plan to contest on the same joint ticket will materialise.
In the conviction of a public affairs analyst, Majeed Dahiru, while assessing the Obi, El-Rufai joint ticket, noted that the administration of President Tinubu would crumble in 2027 if El-Rufai can mobilise the northern political influencers to support Peter Obi.
“If I may put it straight, the day El-Rufai decides and can galvanise the opinion moulders in the North to zero in on Peter Obi, for instance, as the candidate, that will be the end of the Tinubu-led administration,” Majeed submitted.
Dahiru was also in alignment with Bashir, El-Rufai’s son, who admitted a change of perception against Peter Obi, claiming recently that Obi is not as bad as people poisoned his mind to believe previously.
Bashir, on his official X handle, admitted that his previous negative perceptions about Obi were influenced by members of his former party, the APC, stressing: “Peter Obi is surprisingly not a bad person after all. My views on him have changed recently. My mind was poisoned by my former party members.”
However, despite the support and convictions from many political actors that Obi and El-Rufai joint ticket would be a productive one in the 2027 presidential election, the unresolved question will be the possibility of the duo burying the hatchet on the deep-rooted animosity between them before now.
Recall that in the build-up to the 2023 presidential election, there were no abusive words and scornful attacks El-Rufai, as then governor of Kaduna State, did not throw at Obi, including the popular allegation that Obi harassed and intimidated him with security agencies as the governor of Anambra State.
However, because of the politicians’ permanent personal interest, it may also be wrong to rule out the possibility of actualising such an arrangement even though many pundits still doubt the prospect of an Obi, El-Rufai joint ticket as presidential candidate.
As for the Atiku and Obi joint presidential ticket, according to political watchers, there are many factors that may constitute serious impediments to the actualisation of the forthcoming presidential election.
For many Nigerians, apart from the legal impediment, it will certainly be easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for Atiku to sacrifice his life’s presidential ambition and run in a joint ticket with Peter Obi.
On the flip side, if, for example, Obi accepts to run as a vice presidential candidate in a joint ticket with Atiku, won’t the complaint about the zoning arrangements in favour of the South count against such a partnership? Again, what happens to the euphoria, intimidating millions of fans’ base and army of supporters Obi, surprisingly, built during his 2023 presidential election campaign, that are still giving him hope that he is still a presidential and not a vice presidential material?
More importantly, will Obi naturally not be sceptical about the possibility of trusting Atiku to honour the gentlemanly agreement of serving just one term and sacrificing him frustratingly after the first tenure if he desperately tries to insist and invoke the agreement?
In the considerations of many, the Atiku, Obi joint presidential ticket, is apparently blanketed in so many doubts, with more questions than answers.
Lagos-based lawyer and activist, Deji Adeyanju, may have nailed it when he argued that the time to organise has passed, emphasising that; “even if Atiku and Obi are on a joint ticket now, it’s too late. Tinubu will not lose an election as he is in power. Because of the ethno-religious nature of Nigeria’s politics, only a Southerner who is limited to one term in office would be widely accepted by the electorate.”
The questions begging for answers include if Atiku found ADC as the next safe Haven, will Obi leave LP he gave visibility during the 2023 presidential election as a candidate to join Atiku?
Again, will Obi even bow to the pressure to run on the same joint ticket with Atiku after suffering humiliation in rejecting him and opting for Okowa during the 2023 presidential election?
Other possible joint tickets in the offing include the Bala Mohammed and Makinde PDP probable partnership.
With the current leadership crises rocking the PDP, there is certainly serious doubt over the possibility of the main opposition party even fielding candidate for the presidential election let alone actualising the Bala Mohammed/Makinde joint ticket option.
From all indications, according to many pundits, any of the planned efforts for a joint ticket partnership seems to have been even more threatened by the crises rocking almost all the opposition political parties, with the crises believed to be fuelled by the unseen hands of the ruling party, the APC, through manipulation.
With perhaps only four governors in the PDP fully committed currently to the party’s victory at the next poll, the PDP national leadership, facing internal friction and attempts to remove the acting National Chairman, Umar Damagum, facing frustration by various court actions, just like the situation in other opposition parties, the permutations for a sellable and formidable joint ticket to defeat President Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election, may, at best, be a pipe dream.
And to drive home the above points, Mr. Bayo Onanuga, Tinubu’s spokesman, claiming that Atiku is a loser again, mockingly noted on his official X handle that: “Potential allies, including former running mate, Okowa and defunct CPC (party) members, are giving his leprous group a wide berth. Atiku is a loser again.”
It may not however, be a stroll into the park by President Tinubu despite every odd currently being in his favour if the posture of the Nigerian workers during the recently celebrated International Labour Day that Obi doesn’t need PDP, Atiku coalition or ex-Kaduna State Governor, El-Rufai to defeat Tinubu, is anything to go by.
Deputy President of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) Political Commission, Prof. Theophilus Ndubuaku, asserted that Obi remains a formidable and widely accepted candidate, capable of defeating President Tinubu in any free and fair contest.
“Peter Obi doesn’t need any coalition to win the 2027 presidential election. He is a sellable candidate. If you recall, he was already coasting to victory in the 2023 elections before the controversial glitches. He even defeated Tinubu in his stronghold in Lagos, which shows Nigerians want him in power. If INEC conducts a free and fair election, he will win. He can also leverage his local and international connections to make it happen,” Ndubuaku added.