By Chidiebere Onyemaizu
Though the next presidential election is still over two years away, Nigeria’s opposition political actors and power brokers are already strategizing on sending the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC out of power, even as the ruling party has dismissed the move as doomed.
Despite the straight talking Buba Galadima’s attempt to pour cold water on former Kano State governor, Senator Musa Rabiu Kwankwaso’s hint about his predisposition to pair with former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi as running mate in the 2027 presidential election, political analysts believe the former Kano Governor was actually giving out snippets of the outcome of series of behind the scene negotiations and trade offs that opposition figures and certain power brokers have engaged since the beginning of this year aimed at presenting a united front against the APC ahead of 2027.
Daily Sun learnt that after analysing the outcome of last year’s election and factoring in the ferociousness with which President Bola Tinubu is expected to approach his re-election, major opposition leaders, namely Obi, Kwankwaso and Atiku Abubakar have come to the grim realisation that should they again dissipate energies running separately as presidential candidates in the next election, they would only succeed in handing Tinubu and the APC an effortless landslide victory on a platter of gold.
In the 2023 presidential election, Obi, Kwankwaso and Atiku contested against Tinubu who eventually emerged victorious with 8,794726 votes. However, between Obi who ran on the platform of Labour Party, Kwankwaso who was New Nigeria People’s Party, NNPP candidate and Atiku who flew the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP’s flag, the opposition garnered close to 15 million votes, a figure that would have earned one of them an emphatic victory had the opposition presented a single candidate and contested the election as a single bloc. In the election, Obi got 6,101,533 votes in 12 states, Atiku 6984,520 votes in 12 states and Kwankwaso 1496,687 votes in one state.
Recall that the Labour Party and the NNPP, had in the run up to the 2023 presidential election tinkered with the idea of merging to form a formidable front but disagreement over who between Obi and Kwankwaso should fly the presidential flag stalled the move.
However, in a viral post penultimate week, Kwankwaso, speaking in Hausa, though claimed political superiority over Obi, offered to deputise him in 2027 provided certain conditions are made. Kwankwaso: “I’m bigger than Peter Obi politically; I’m his elder brother, I’m a PhD holder, I performed better than him when I was the governor of my state. I’ve no problem with deputising for Peter Obi, but only if certain conditions are met…..We are willing to engage in discussions, provided that trust is established.”
Despite the unambiguity in Kwankwaso’s assertions, Galadima, a chieftain of the NNPP, however, insists the party’s presidential candidate in last year’s election meant something else and never expressed willingness to deputize Obi in 2027.
Galadima: “Kwankwaso “is far ahead of the former Anambra State governor in everything. So, saying that Kwankwaso will serve as Obi’s running mate in next three years is like relegating him to the background as such speculation does not hold water….to those that have listened and clearly understood the interview, what Senator Kwankwaso said was like humiliating Peter Obi not the opposite.”
Meanwhile, impeccable sources familiar with the decision reached at the recent behind the scene meeting former President Olusegun Obasanjo had with former Heads of State, Generals Ibrahim Babangida and Abdulsalam Abubakar in Minna told Daily Sun that the former leaders unanimously agreed that everything humanly possible must be done within the ambit of democracy and rule of law to rescue Nigeria from the abyss and ensure that in 2027, Nigerians are spared another four years of unmitigated economic hardship.
“The consensus was that Nigeria was in a bad shape and that Nigerians are suffering as the present government at the centre is not getting its policies right and is clueless as to solutions to the hardship Nigerians are facing and must therefore not be allowed to return in 2027”, Daily Sun was told.
Though no particular political party was mentioned or adopted at the former leaders’ meeting as a replacement to the current APC-led Federal Government, it was gathered that weeks before the meeting, informal meetings of some political leaders from the six geo-political zones of the country, including some current appointed and elected office holders across the parties took place discreetly.
Daily Sun was informed that the meetings centred around 2027 and the most likely replacement for President Tinubu. Obi’s and Kwankwaso’s names, it was gathered, prominently featured at the meetings as the likely presidential candidate and vice Presidential candidate of a soon to be unveiled coalition of parties and individuals which will then later morph into a new party for the purpose of the 2027 presidential election.
The choice of Obi, according to sources, was predicated on his advertised competence, salutary performance as Anambra State Governor, public engagements and sterling performance in the last presidential election. “Across board, many political leaders, political stakeholders and power brokers actually believe that Obi has a better knowledge of the economy, has the know-how to revamp it and would perform better than the current president. They also believe he has a wider support base, reach and political appeal than both Kwankwaso and Atiku”, another source privy to the ongoing behind the scene political alignments told Daily Sun.
The Northern political establishment and the intelligentsia , it was gathered, are favourably disposed to an Obi presidency but with a caveat:
Firstly, they are setting as a condition, a written or a gentleman agreement that the North will not be starved of juicy and strategic ministries and agencies as it is, according to them, obtained in the current government. Secondly, they are insisting that whoever that will be eventually picked from the North to deputize Obi should be a strong character with a towering political influence to checkmate Obi and influence government policies and decisions favourable to the region.
Lastly, the North insists that Obi should serve only a term to complete Tinubu’s envisaged eight year tenure on the grounds that Obi’s eight years plus Tinubu’s four years will amount to the South doing 12 years at a stretch at the detriment of the North.
As the opposition plots a coalition that would birth a brand new party akin to the birth of the APC in 2014, elements within the main opposition party, the PDP are pushing for the replacement of the party’s embattled acting National Chairman, Umar Damagum with former Senate President, Senator David Mark. They argue that Senator Mark’s integrity, experience, influence and contacts are needed to reposition the party and lead it to any merger or coalition arrangement for a better bargaining, this is even as Atiku is being persuaded to drop his 2027 presidential ambition and support Obi to pave the way for a formidable front against the APC.
Daily Sun has however learnt that a faction of the party and some National Working Committee, NWC members loyal to the FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, are against the merger of PDP with other opposition parties for the purpose of wresting power from the APC in 2027 and are perfecting plans to frustrate it.
One of the plans, according to sources, is to announce a splinter group similar to the infamous nPDP in 2014, get it registered as a party with the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC and then field a weak presidential candidate of Yoruba origin as a presidential candidate for the 2027 election.
The idea, Daily Sun was further told, is to divide the PDP, weaken it and reduce its influence, strength and relevance in the proposed anti- APC coalition thus rendering such coalition ineffective and clearing the coast for Tinubu’s re-election.
Check out for Part (2) of this story
2027: Permutations on Obi/Kwankwaso ticket and North’s card (2)