From Sunday Ani
Midway into President Bola Tinubu’s four-year tenure, the political atmosphere in the country is getting more tense by the day. Though the next general elections are still two years away, the nation has literally turned into one huge marketplace of politics. Characteristically, governance seems to have taken a back seat as politicians position themselves for relevance in the emerging potpourri of horse-trading.
The nation has relapsed into a frenzy of conspiracy theories, permutations and subtle political activities ahead of 2027 even though the INEC has not given the green light for such. As usual, one of the issues of public discourse is whether power would remain in the Southern part of the country or go back to the North. And the question is -will Nigeria’s fault lines of ethnicity and religion still rear their ugly heads and determine the outcome of the next presidential election?
Many political observers argue that since1999, the country has been in search of a compass that could guide it through the turbulent seas and redirect the ship of state to the path of glory. But in their calculation, the stake is gradually getting higher in the buildup to the 2027 presidential race. The reason is because as different power blocs and major stakeholders in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) have endorsed President Tinubu for re-election, some opposition politicians are not leaving anything to chance in their efforts for a consensus candidate through an alliance or coalition. The scramble seems to be majorly for the soul of the North. Though some stakeholders in the North argue that President Tinubu should be supported to complete two terms of four years in office, there is a growing population of observers in the region who believe that the current APC administration has been unfair to them and should be thrown out in the next election. To people in this school of thought, the North determines who presides over Nigeria and has been proved in various elections including the emergence of President Tinubu.
The argument by a substantial population of the North is that the attitude of the current dispensation has united the North and is gradually preparing the region to reclaim the Presidency in 2027.
Mutual suspicion
For years, there has been a growing sentiment among the southern part of the country that the North has been favoured in terms of political representation and development. This feeling, according to some political camps, has only been amplified by recent events and decisions made by the government. However, instead of succumbing to this pressure and further dividing the nation, some observers argue that the North appears to have resolved to begin the process of securing power in “a way that promotes inclusivity and fairness for all. One of the major concerns is what northerners consider as the Muslim-Muslim ticket, which generated heated debate and controversy prior to the last general elections in the country, and which has not improved the lot of Nigerians.
Ahead of 2027, analysts perceive a reawakening in the North on the need for balance and representation of all regions and faith in the next dispensation and some powerful and influential forces are already regrouping with the aim of presenting a common and united front in 2027.
However, this time, there are indications that they favour the North Central, which has yet to occupy the presidency.
A highly placed source told Daily Sun in confidence: “This decision by the North is a testament to the region’s strong sense of unity and determination. It shows that the North is ready to move past any perceived prejudices and work towards a common goal – the betterment of the nation as a whole.
“This move also highlights the region’s commitment to fairness and inclusivity, which are crucial values in a democratic society.”
Analysts observe that not a few have rationalised the decision to zero in on the North-Central, producing a candidate that enjoys the backing of all the tendencies in the North for the next presidential election. Many stakeholders from the region insist that the choice of a candidate from the North Central is a strategic move that will not only promote balance and representation but also foster a sense of inclusivity among all the geopolitical zones in the country.
But as it is, all the vested interests in the politics of the North have been weighing the merits and possible backlash of the various options on the table with regards to where the presidency goes in 2027. Both divides acknowledge the need for inclusivity and fairness. So, the manoeuvring by the North to chart its way to the presidency, some analysts argue, indicates a signal to the rest of stakeholders in the country that unity, inclusivity, and fairness are the foundation for a strong and prosperous nation.
“The North has set a precedent for political harmony and cooperation, and it is a step in the right direction towards a more balanced representation in the country’s leadership.
“The decision of the North to unite and back a candidate from the North-Central for the presidency is a commendable move,” our source added.
But former general secretary of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Mr Anthony Sani, appears unperturbed by the development. He observed that it not the tradition of the North to be unanimous on partisan issues. While noting that such divergent views on partisan politics do suggest a division or crack in the North. Sani clarified: “Yes, the North is united on many political issues which most northerners share. But when it comes to partisan issues, the North does not speak with one voice. That is why ACF is political on issues which most northerners share but the forum is not partisan. That may explain the existence of the Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) led by the Sardauna of Sokoto along with the Northern Elements peoples Union (NEPU) led by Mallam Aminu Kano, while the United Middle Belt congress (UMBC) was led by Joseph S. Tarka in the First republic. In the Second republic, Shehu Shagari led the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), Mallam Aminu Kano headed PRP while Ibrahim Waziri was leader of the Greater Nigerian Peoples Party (GNPP). Chief Solomon Lar chose to go with Nigerian peoples Party (NPP) led by Nnamdi Azikiwe. During the last elections, President Muhammadu Buhari led APC, Atiku Abubakar was in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), while Musa Kwankwaso headed NNPP.” Sani, a board of Trustees (BoT) member of ACF, said this historical reality explains why ACF comprises members from different political parties. “Some members are of different political persuasions and stripes, not political parties. In order to help voters make informed decisions during elections, ACF has a list of attributes which voters are persuaded to look for in candidates and political parties in the hope that voters would make judicious use of their democratic right and ensure votes count so the ensuing leaders would be accountable.”
A former Special Adviser on Political Matters to the President, Bola Tinubu, Dr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, has also spoken on the intrigues in the politics of the North. His recent view resonates with the intense horse-trading going in various political circles concerning the 2027 presidency. The former spokesman of the Northern Elders Forum (NEF) said the North would, in the six months, starting from April, take a stand on its candidate for 2027 presidency. “In the next six months, the North will decide where it stands. If the rest of the country wants to join us, fine. If not, we will go our own way. One thing is clear: nobody can become president of Nigeria without northern support. We want a government that understands our problems and can address them. After Buhari’s eight years, we became wiser. Now, we are in another government, and we are still crying. Is crying all we know how to do?” Baba-Ahmed queried. But both Governor Abdullahi Sule of Nasarawa State and Senator Shehu Sani think otherwise, They opined that the North should give Tinubu the opportunity to seek a re-election. Sule, who doubles as the chairman of the North-Central Governors Forum, said the North is not known for reneging on its promise. On his part, Senator Sani chided northern political leaders for failing to alleviate the suffering of the people in the North over the years. “In the interest of equity, the South, particularly the South-West, should be allowed to complete the eight-year presidential term.
“It would be just and equitable, even if the opposition fields a presidential candidate; he should come from the South-West. That is what fairness and justice demand.”