•How defections to APC is changing coalition plans

•‘Merger forces say there’s plenty time before election’

 

From Ismail Omipidan, Abuja

The current situation within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)  has given rise to strong speculations that party’s presidential candidate in the 2023 election, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, may eventually dump the party for the Social Democratic Party (SDP), with a view to realising his presidential ambition in 2027.

Although the camp of the former Vice President has denied that he was contemplating defecting from the PDP, some analysts believing he might be on his way out of the party. 

In fact, his 2023 running mate and former Delta State Governor, Senator Ifeanyi Okowa who just dumped the PDP for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), was emphatic when he said Atiku would soon leave the PDP.

But Atiku, speaking through his media aide, Paul Ibe, denied such plans.

“We have addressed the issues about coalition, and remember that we had a statement to that effect; Alhaji Atiku Abubakar is not leaving the PDP, and he has said that clearly. As for those talking about him leaving the PDP, we don’t know where they are getting that from,” Ibe said.

But many have also noted that politicians hardly admit to nursing any plans for defection until such plans materialises.

For instance, two months ago, there were speculations that the Delta State Governor, Sheriff Oborevwori, was eyeing the APC. He denied the defection plot. While denying the speculation, his Commissioner for Information, Charles Aniagwu, accused the APC of wishful thinking.

“Gov. Oborevwori is not only a proud member of the PDP, but remains a leader of PDP both in Delta and in Nigeria. He is also a performing governor, who has been able to show that he can be regarded as the poster governor for the PDP. So, for those who are wishing that he is jumping ship, we want to tell them that Oborevwori is not in the business of jumping. Oborevwori is trying to let Nigerians know that the PDP has the strength to deliver,” Aniagwu said in a statement. But about two months after the repeated denial, Delta State Governor is now in the APC.

Like the Delta State Governor, some of the PDP chieftains who are familiar with happenings around the former Vice President believe that the Adamawa-born politician would leave the PDP, the moment it is very clear that he might not pick the party’s presidential ticket.

“You remember what I told you about the Delta State Governor. He left barely 24 hours after I told you he was going to leave. I hope you still remember what I told you last year as well. I told you that while we are working very hard in the North to dislodge ‘Emilokan’, (Tinubu),’ some of us are not comfortable about the fact that Turaki (Atiku) will be the beneficiary of our struggles and efforts. Look here, If Atiku announces today that he is no longer interested in contesting for the presidency and expresses his readiness and willingness to lead the coalition, our struggle will gain momentum and Turaki would instantly become the rallying point. In fact, he would become an instant hero. But who will tell him to step down and forget his ambition? This is the dilemma,” a PDP chieftain, who is also a former governor, said.

According to the former governor, before the wave of defections, the initial plan of the coalition group was for the PDP to produce Atiku as candidate, SDP to produce El-Rufai, while Labour Party (LP) would produce Peter Obi. In the end, the three parties would enter into what looked like the 1999 pact between the defunct All Peoples Party (APP) and the Alliance for Democracy (AD), where AD produced the presidential candidate, and the APP produced the running mate.

“We would look at the strengths of the candidates and pick one of them as the presidential flag bearer, and the second strongest as the running mate. The third person would now be compensated, politically. But with the attitude of the leadership of the SDP, I don’t see them yielding their platform to either Atiku or El-Rufai. If that happens, we will run into a hitch. But like I always say, 24 hours is a long time in politics. I believe we still have two years to strategise and perfect our plans,” the source said.

The North, Tinubu and 2027

The North is not relenting in its bid to dislodge President Tinubu. Just last Wednesday, the umbrella body of the region, the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) re-echoed what individual Northerners have been saying when it declared that the North’s population would determine the winner of the presidential election in 2027. This time around, it is the Board of Trustees (BoT) of the group, led by Alhaji Bashir Dalhatu, which made the declaration in Kaduna.

“The North has 19 out of the 36 states. We also have the FCT as a veritable component. We have a majority in the Senate, the House of Representatives, the National Economic Council, as well as the Council of States. The North occupies close to 75 per cent of Nigeria’s land area and about 60 per cent of the population. An area that is this big and this strong can never be subdued by any opponent, provided we remain united and place our region above all other considerations. No questions about it, united we stand, divided we fall.”

Historically, the North does not usually speak with one voice when it comes to the pattern of voting. However, where the majority of the voters go usually carry the day. This fact was reinforced by Dr Usman Bugaje during an interview on a live television, last Thursday, when he alluded to the fact that President Tinubu won the 2023 presidential election because 60 per cent of the votes came from the North.

“The President did not win in Lagos. How can you now be blaming the North for distracting you? I think that is the height of ingratitude. The North has every right to be angry.  The taste of the pudding is in the eating. By 2027, we will see. Let the North decide,” Bugaje said.

Bugaje, a former member of the House of Representatives, is a member of the intelligentsia in the North. He believes that those accusing the North of looking the other way during the former President Muhammadu Buhari administration are not being fair to the region, insisting that, while not holding brief for ACF and other groups in the North, there were some of them who took on Buhari during his years.

“There are a number of us from the North who did challenge Buhari from day one till he left. Buhari’s regime was a disaster for the North and the country, and we are still suffering from his missteps. Sadly, with the monumental failure of this regime, some of those who served in the Buhari’s regime are saying theirs was not as worse as this,” Bugaje said.

‘Coalition represents nothing’

Like some Northerners, Bugaje also believes that there is nothing in the trajectory of those leading the coalition against Tinubu to show that they would do better than the incumbent. He noted that the coalition represents nothing as they lack character and content, adding that they had power in the past, and they did nothing with it. He suggested the need for an elite consensus, so as to set criteria for the kind of leadership that would rescue the country and place it in the league of countries like China and Singapore and not one with development indices similar to that of DR Congo. Bugaje, a former aide to Atiku believes that rotational presidency is denying Nigerians of quality leadership, just as he says nothing stops a Northerner from vying for the presidency in 2027.

“Democratically speaking, there is no law that says the North cannot contest (presidency in 2027). This North and South (power sharing arrangement) is a distraction. It takes away the most important thing to be discussed – that is quality of leadership. We have no clear-cut criteria for leadership selection. What we have, which is also in the constitution, is eligibility. But eligibility is different from suitability. We should look at the character and competence of the kind of leadership we are putting forward. The leadership of the coalition is a baggage, they represent nothing. No character, no content, no conscience. What we need is elite consensus on where we want the country to be in the next 10 years. That should form the basis of our leadership selection process,” Bugaje added.

Reminded that it was too early to assess Tinubu’s administration, Bugaje further said those who hold such a view are ignorant of global governance. “You don’t need to wait for two years to evaluate a government. You can evaluate a government through its budget, appointments and policies.  And the truth is that this government has not met the expectations of those who brought them to power. I agree, they are making efforts, especially with regards to security, but the government has not been able to solve any of the problems it met on ground. It appears overwhelmed and confused,” he added.

Lending his voice to Bugaje’s position on rotational presidency, another source told Saturday Sun that “I feel this (rotation of presidency) is a wasted effort and should not even arise. It is a selfish principle. Nigerians should be allowed to choose their leaders irrespective of where those leaders come from. That way, we would get the best.”

PDP as the SPV for 2027

At the onset in 1999, of the 19 Northern states, PDP had 10, while the defunct APP had nine. But after the 2003 elections, PDP increased its tally in the North, winning Kogi, Kwara, and Gombe states. After the 2007 elections, the tally again increased, as the PDP took over in Sokoto and Jigawa states, with ANPP springing a surprise in Bauchi State. But in the build to the 2011 election, Kebbi, Zamfara and Bauchi states all returned to the PDP through the defection of their governors. However, following the formation of APC in 2013, the APC took charge of the North. Sokoto at some point reverted to the PDP, through defection, but by 2023, APC seized it again.

As at today, APC controls 15 of the 19 Northern states, leaving PDP with three and NNPP with one. With the current configuration, coupled with its unending crises of confidence, the PDP does not appear to be a suitable Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) for the North’s 2027 agenda.

Sources revealed that the defection of the Delta State Governor and the possibility of others who are likely to dump the PDP in the days and weeks ahead, has further compounded the challenge of those plotting to unseat APC, in 2027.

“Now, the South-West will want to retain power. So, the president is concentrating so much energy outside his region. The Labour Party and SDP are not that popular in the North, the South- East, and South-South. The PDP that is popular in those areas is shrinking. So, it means we cannot rely on the PDP as a platform. We wanted to register a new party, but INEC is frustrating us. The defection you are seeing now will continue because unless the PDP resolves the issue of its National Secretary, more people, especially those who will want to contest elective positions, will dump the party for APC. So, they will be doing so, not because of their love for Tinubu or APC, but for the sake of exigency. That was what the Akwa Ibom State Governor was referring to some days ago. As it is, any nomination for elective position by the PDP, will be invalidated by the court. Any of the two national secretaries that signs a nomination form will make it invalid. This is the challenge,” one of the sources added.   He declared that unless there is a decisive step to rebuild the party, it was likely to collapse before the 2027 elections.

Tinubu, his 2027 plans

President Tinubu appears to be bothered about his fate in Kano. He is said to be equally worried about the seemingly lack of support for his administration in the North-West, especially.  Although some of the stakeholders in the North are still bitter with President Tinubu, Saturday Sun can authoritatively reveal that there is nothing much the North, as a region, could do in the APC presidential primary that could alter his emergence as the next presidential candidate of the party.

Although Tinubu may not win in all the 19 Northern states, his handling of the issue of who runs with him, will go a long way to determining his fate at the polls. Some people around him are already toying with the idea of replacing the incumbent, Kashim Shettima, with former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. Discussions are on-going to bring the former Kano governor back to the APC.

While it is true that the North-West as a bloc, wants the Vice Presidency slot, some analysts have noted that Kwankwaso’s appeal does not go beyond Kano. Therefore, putting him above Ganduje, will no doubt precipitate another round of crisis in Kano, which would invariably affect the fortunes of APC in Kano, and by implication, that of its presidential candidate, Tinubu.

Saturday Sun gathered that if the opposition parties decide to team up and are able to woo some APC governors to their side before the election to support one candidate against Tinubu, the APC might be in for a serious challenge. And until and unless that happens, APC will be on its way to its fourth consecutive victory after it first happened in the country’s political space in 2015.