From Abel Leonard, Lafia
Nasarawa State is set to witness heightened political activities in 2025. The year promises to be a pivotal one for aspirants and political parties as they intensify efforts to secure endorsements within their parties and win the confidence of the electorate.
The upcoming period is expected to feature a mix of consultations, party congresses and alliances as politicians jostle for key positions. Aspirants will not only focus on winning their parties’ primaries but will also seek to build coalitions, leverage grassroots support and address pressing issues affecting the people of Nasarawa.
Analysts predict that 2025 will be marked by intense lobbying, strategic alignments and a test of political ideologies as candidates seek to resonate with a diverse and increasingly politically conscious electorate.
Given Nasarawa’s strategic importance as a microcosm of Nigeria’s political dynamics, the state will serve as a veritable ground where national and local political interests converge. This alignment will likely set the tone for the elections, with implications that could reverberate beyond the state.
Political pundits believe zoning will play a decisive role in determining the trajectory of Nasarawa’s 2027 gubernatorial race. The All Progressives Congress (APC) appears to have solidified its stance, with the western zone seemingly positioned to produce its candidate. The emergence of aspirants exclusively from the western zone highlights the party’s alignment with the principle of rotational leadership, a move seen as a strategic attempt to maintain internal cohesion and appease stakeholders within the zone.
In contrast, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) faces a more complex challenge. The internal rift between the Orogu/Ombugadu and the Onawo factions threatens the party’s unity. While the Orogu/Ombugadu camp appears steadfast in its push for David Ombugadu, the 2023 gubernatorial candidate, the Onawo faction is advocating for a paradigm shift.
They argue that the party’s best chance lies in zoning the governorship ticket to the western zone, warning that the PDP’s inability to reconcile these divergent interests could lead to an implosion, weakening the party’s chances at the polls.
Meanwhile, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) seems poised to capitalise on zoning dynamics, having already settled on Senator Aliyu Wadada from the western zone, as its likely flag bearer. This development positions the SDP as a formidable contender, especially in the event of fragmentation within the PDP and/or APC.
Observers are of the view that the emphasis on zoning across party lines reflects Nasarawa’s intricate political culture, where power rotation has historically been instrumental in fostering inclusivity and balancing regional interests. However, with each party navigating its unique challenges, the interplay of zoning, factionalism, and political calculations will be critical in shaping the state’s political narrative in the coming months.
The ruling APC will experience significant internal maneuvers. Following the success of Governor Abdullahi Sule in managing a consensus arrangement during the last local government elections, many expect a similar approach for the governorship ticket. However, observers note that Sule must take a firm stand in steering the party to avoid internal discord.
One critical factor will be managing the influence of Dr. Aliyu Bello, whose potential return as APC state chairman raises concerns of favouritism. His close ties with Senator Aliyu Wadada, currently in the SDP, could pose a risk. Should Wadada return to the APC or maintain ties through Bello, the party might find its unity compromised, particularly if perceptions of bias arise.
Analyst enumerated the likely candidates within the APC that may be given the ticket. One of such is Dr. Faisal Shuaib, regarded as one of the strongest candidates in the APC. He is a perfect blend of competence, respectability and unity.
As an experienced public health professional and the Executive Director National Primary Health Care Development Agency, Shuaib has earned national and international recognition for his leadership, particularly in immunization campaigns and the fight against COVID-19 in Nigeria.
His lack of political baggage makes him a unifying figure. He embodies qualities of inclusivity and integrity that resonate with both the electorate and party stalwarts. Many observers view him as the APC’s best chance to maintain its grip on the state while promoting unity and progress.
Professor Mohammed Sani Haruna, is formerly of the National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure (NASENI). His tenure at NASENI was marked by innovation and infrastructural development, showcasing his commitment to public service.
However, his candidacy may face serious challenges. His perceived lack of charisma and a limited political network within Nasarawa State are seen as potential weaknesses. Despite his impressive professional accomplishments, his reserved nature and modest circle of political allies suggest he might bow out of the race as competition intensifies.
His leadership style is raising concerns. Critics suggest this reflects an overzealous attachment to power. Such tendencies, they argue, should be considered carefully when assessing his suitability for higher public office.
Musa Ahmed Mohammed Abdullahi brings a mix of legislative and financial expertise to the table. As a two-time Speaker of the Nasarawa State House of Assembly and current Accountant-General, he has built connections with former lawmakers. However, his political fortunes have waned following two failed attempts to secure a seat in the House of Representatives.
Observers are of the view that being Hausa/Fulani, his candidacy faces resistance from indigenous communities, who have unanimously expressed their desire for an indigenous governor, irrespective of religion.
Professor Abdulkarim Kana Is APC’s legal adviser and a former state Attorney General of Nasarawa State. However, his lack of prior success in elective politics and limited financial resources make him a less likely contender. While he may play a role in shaping the party’s internal legal framework, his influence in the gubernatorial race is expected to be minimal.
PDP’s internal conflicts, challenges
The Peoples Democratic Party is at a crossroads, with internal divisions threatening its viability ahead of the 2027 gubernatorial elections. The rift between the Orogu/Ombugadu faction and the Onawo group continues to deepen, raising fears of an implosion if not urgently addressed. Stakeholders warn that the party’s failure to mediate these conflicting interests could lead to a complete collapse of its structure in the state. Unfortunately, intervention from the national PDP leadership, which is itself embroiled in internal turmoil, appears unlikely.
Insisting on zoning the governorship ticket to the northern zone, as some suggested, would alienate critical sections of the party’s base. Conversely, retaining Ombugadu as the gubernatorial candidate—a two-time contender—risks reinforcing perceptions of an ethno-religious agenda, further polarizing the party and its supporters.
However, pundits are of the view that Ombugadu as a two-time gubernatorial candidate, persistence has solidified his base but has also raised concerns about inclusivity. Many within the party believe it is time for him to step aside for the sake of unity and to allow for a more inclusive approach to leadership. While Ombugadu has loyal supporters, his continued candidacy may deepen existing divisions, making it harder for the PDP to present a united front.
However, the percieved defection of Mohammed Abdullahi candidacy to the PDP could appeal to a broader electorate, particularly as he is seen to possess the ability to navigate Nasarawa’s political terrain. The party’s capability to rally around him will depend on resolving its internal conflicts and prioritising collective interest over individual ambitions.
Obsevers insist Abdullahi represents a compelling alternative for the PDP. A technocrat, former Attorney General, SSG and Minister of State for Science and Technology, as well as Environment, his record in resource management and governance makes him a credible contender. His candidacy could breathe fresh air into the party and position it as a party capable of offering pragmatic and inclusive leadership.
SDP: Between potential, limitations
The Social Democratic Party (SDP) remains a wildcard in Nasarawa State’s political landscape. While the party has notable figures in its ranks, it faces significant structural and demographic challenges that could limit its impact in 2027.
Senator Aliyu Wadada is a grassroots mobilizer with a strong presence in the western zone. This positions him as a formidable contender. However, analysts caution that his perceived arrogance and occasional disrespect for party leaders could undermine his appeal. Furthermore, the SDP’s relatively limited followership across the state poses a significant obstacle to mounting a successful statewide campaign.
Wadada’s ambitions are also hampered by the indigenous factor, as many communities in Nasarawa have signaled a preference for a governor from their ranks. Despite his strengths, these dynamics could significantly weaken his chances in the broader contest.
Gaza Gbefwi is also eyeing the governorship. As a federal lawmaker, he built a solid reputation, with many commending his performance and grassroots connections. However, his governorship ambition appears far-fetched, given the SDP’s limited structure and the challenges of running a successful statewide campaign.
Speculations about his possible defection to the Labour Party add another layer of complexity to his political trajectory. While the governorship may be out of reach, political analysts suggest that a strategic alliance could position him for a Senate seat in the western zone, leveraging his strengths in legislative leadership and grassroots mobilization.
Ethnicity, religion: The unspoken determinants
In Nasarawa State, ethnicity and religion remain critical factors, even if religion has receded into the background compared to previous elections. The shift is largely attributed to evolving voters’ priorities, where performance and inclusivity are beginning to take center stage. However, identity politics rooted in ethnicity continues to dominate, with indigenous communities advocating fiercely for one of their own to take the reins of leadership in 2027.
For many stakeholders, particularly among the major ethnic groups such as Eggon, Gwandara, Mada and Alago, the governorship seat is not merely a position of power but also a symbol of cultural and political affirmation. These groups have made it clear that their preference lies with an indigenous candidate, regardless of religious affiliation.
This dynamic presents a significant challenge for aspirants like Wadada and Abdullahi. Both though influential in their spheres, are viewed as less aligned with the indigenous ethnic identity due to their Hausa-Fulani heritage.
Wadada from Keffi and Musa are essentially perceived as outsiders by many indigenous stakeholders, making their ambitions precarious in an environment dominated by ethnic considerations.
Shuaib on the other hand, represents a unifying figure with deep roots among the indigenous communities. His ethnic ties, coupled with his non-partisan reputation, position him as a viable candidate capable of bridging the ethnic divide.
Role of financial wherewithal
In Nasarawa, where the political terrain is fiercely competitive, only few candidates possess the financial muscle to withstand the rigors of a prolonged campaign.
Shuaib stands out not only for his professional accomplishments but also for his ability to attract funding from diverse quarters. As a respected technocrat with international connections, he is seen as someone who could leverage both local and external support to finance his campaign. His reputation for integrity and his appeal across ethnic and political lines also make him an attractive candidate for financiers looking to back a winning contender.
Wadada’s extensive grassroots network and political experience make him a formidable force. His financial clout, bolstered by years in public service and private business, positions him as one of the few candidates capable of matching the monetary demands of a governorship campaign. However, ethnic factor could limit his ability to galvanize widespread support, even with substantial resources at his disposal.
Abdullahi with a track record of public service, also has significant financial backing. His ties to the PDP and his reputation as a technocrat give him access to various funding streams, including party loyalists and influential stakeholders.
Stakeholders are deeply embedded in ethnic framework. The Eggon, who form one of the largest ethnic groups, have long agitated for greater representation at the governorship level. Similarly, Mada, Gwandara and Alago communities are pushing for a candidate who aligns with their cultural and political aspirations.
The consensus is that the next governor must be an indigenous person, a sentiment echoed by various traditional and political leaders in the state. This insistence on identity politics places non-indigenous candidates at a disadvantage, regardless of their qualifications or financial resources.