By Oluseye Ojo

As the tenure of Governor Seyi Makinde winds down, and he is set to complete his second term on May 28, 2027, the political atmosphere in Oyo State appears to be unclear.

The race for the next governor, which should ideally be taking shape by this now, remains nebulous and somewhat unpredictable.

Despite being only two years away from the next elections, political analysts and observers find themselves grappling with uncertainty concerning who might succeed Makinde.

The landscape is filled with potential candidates, figures including Chief Jubril Dotun Sanusi (JDS), Senator Sharafadeen Alli, Senator Teslim Folarin, Chief Adebayo Adelabu, Hon. Remi Oseni, and Chief Taofeek Oladejo Arapaja that are commonly being floated in conversations about the gubernatorial race.

However, the fact remains that none of these candidates have made formal declarations to run for the governorship seat, leaving the stakes essentially unanchored.

Chief Jubril Dotun Sanusi

He stands out with his impressive professional background as an accomplished entrepreneur and a petroleum engineer, Sanusi has made a name for himself beyond politics. He commands significant respect in business circles, particularly with his ventures including the International College of Arts, Science & Technology (ICAST) and Ilaji Farms. Although political observers might see him as a figure to watch, Sanusi has yet to signal his intention to contest. He is a philanthropist par excellence.

Senator Sharafadeen Alli

With a rich history in politics spanning over three decades, he has experience on his side. His previous roles include serving as Secretary to the State Government and Chief of Staff under former Governor Rashidi Ladoja in the state. His extensive engagement in Oyo’s political landscape could make him a viable candidate but without a public declaration, he remains just a name floating in potential discussions. He is the current Chairman, Senate Committee on Electoral Matters, and a lawyer. He was once the Chairman of Odu’a Investment Company Limited.

Senator Teslim Folarin

He brings a formidable pedigree with a defined political trajectory, having served as Senator  three times and possessing a political science degree from the University of Ibadan. He was the Senate Leader between 2007 and 2011. He was the governorship candidate of PDP in 2015 and APC in 2023. However, like others, he has yet to position himself as a contender in the 2027 race.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu

He is the current Minister of Power and a former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria. His name has also been thrown into the mix of the governorship race. His experience at the federal level could energise his candidacy; yet, the same hesitation in making official moves applies. It is said that the powers that be may support him to emerge as APC governesship candidate. But some of the gatekeepers in APC were overheard, saying that they would stay in the party, but work against him, based on the fallout of the 2023 general elections.

Ambassador Taofeek Arapaja

Arapaja has huge experience in politics. He was an Executive Chairman of Ibadan South East Local Government under the zero party. He was re-elected as the Executive Chairman on the platform of Democratic Party of Nigeria (DPN) in 1997. He was in the House of Representatives and he served as deputy governor of the state from 2007 to 2011.

He had also served as a Nigerian Ambassador to Jordan and Iraq. He was the National Vice Chairman (South West) of PDP, before rising to the position of the party’s National Deputy Chairman (South).

Hon. Aderemi Oseni

Oseni is currently representing Ido/Ibarapa East Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives. He is also the Chairman and Managing Director of Step Development Limited. He is a highly experienced, innovative, and results-driven civil engineering manager.

He is a graduate of Civil Engineering from Federal Polytechnic, Ilaro in 1990, and he proceeded to the University of Leeds, United Kingdom, where he also obtained a Master’s Degree in Structural Engineering with a Distinction. He is the Chairman, House of Representatives Committee on Federal Road Maintenance Agency (FERMA).

Governor Makinde’s kite on age of his Successor

Governor Seyi Makinde made headlines some weeks ago by asserting that he would not endorse any candidate older than 52 for the 2027 governorship election. He emphasised a generational shift.

According to him, “I feel so old already,” setting the stage for a new breed of leadership that is more attuned to the youth of Oyo State.

Political commentators have also stated that Makinde’s position meant that prospective candidates might have to reevaluate their strategies in order to appeal to the youth demographic, which is increasingly becoming more politically conscious and active.

Party Dynamics: Between PDP and APC

Political observers are keen to analyse how Makinde’s pronouncement on age limit would shape the dynamics within the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) as the 2027 race approaches.

The former Chief Whip of the House of Representatives, Babatunde Oduyoye, has also underscored the importance of a comprehensive strategy leading into the 2027 election cycle.

He contended that any candidate aspiring to become governor must formulate a clear manifesto to effectively engage residents in Oyo State, and must move away from past practices that saw candidates offering programmes only in post-election.

The pulses of politicians felt on likely senatorial aspiration of Governor Makinde showed that he has chances to run for the national assembly in two local government. The first one is Ibadan North East Local Government, where he is currently voting in Oyo South Senatorial District..The second one is Ona Ara Local Government, where his village – Ajia, is located in Oyo Central senatorial district.

If Makinde decides to run for a sensorial seat, available information revealed that he has better chances at the moment to win Oyo Central than Oyo South.

Religious Considerations

Complicating the political landscape in Oyo State is the religious factor. The state has historically oscillated between Muslim and Christian governance, and as of now, the incumbent Governor Seyi Makinde, a Christian, will complete his second term in office by 2027.

From 1999 that Nigerian began the current uninterrupted democracy till date, Muslims have held the governorship for a total of 15 years and one month, compared to 12 years and 11 months for Christians that will be completed in 2027. For instance, from 2009 to 2003, Alhaji Lam Adesina, a Muslim, was in power. He was succeeded by another Muslim, Senator Rashidi Ladoja in 2003, who governed the state for three years and one month. When Ladoja was impeached, his deputy, Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala, a Christian, was governor for 11 months, before his reinstatement.

Ladoja was succeeded by Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala, in 2007 and he held the office till 2011.

In 2011, Senator Abiola Ajimobi, a Muslim, was elected and was reelected in 2015. He completed his eight-year of two terms in 2019.

The incumbent governor, Seyi Makinde, a Christian, took over the reins of power in 2019. He was reelected in 2023 and will complete his eight years in office, in 2027.

At present, the frontrunners are emerging, and the demographic consideration could be pivotal in shaping their acceptability and overall support base.

Speculations around Makinde’s Political Future

Daily Sun investigations reveal that Governor Seyi Makinde himself is weighing his options post-2027 — whether he may venture for a senatorial seat or, a more ambitious presidential bid in the coming years.

With the evident trend where no senator from Oyo South has been re-elected twice from 1999 onwards, strategic calculations might need to guide his decision-making. It is a popular belief in the political cycle that as Makinde navigates the waters carefully, both his standing and influence in the political arena could be enhanced.

Some political observers have also noted that the political move of Governor Makinde may surprise many people ahead of the 2027 general elections. There is a rumour that he may defect to APC. But he has not shown any indication that he would leave the PDP.

Findings have shown that as 2027 draws closer, the slow evolution of Oyo State’s political dynamics may either consolidate existing power structures or usher in dramatic shifts.

Political analysts are of the aggregate opinion that what remains evident is that the current ambiguity must give way to clarity; and prospective candidates can no longer remain silent, especially from 2025.

A careful analysis of voter sentiment at the moment showed that it is still fickle. The public might be demanding younger leadership, equipped with actionable policies and manifestos.

Last Line

The Publicity Secretary of APC in the state, Olawale Sadare, told Daily Sun that the leadership is currently focusing on rebuilding the party, and ensure that it is strong enough to dislodge PDP from power in the state.

“Of course, the 2027 governorship race is fast-approaching. But we are not focusing on it for now. We are rebuilding our party. We want to take over the Agodi Government House in 2027. But the time for campaign has not started. When the time comes, the party will take a position.

“Then, members that have governorship ambition will come forward. We cannot stop anyone from aspiring. At the right time, all of them that have ambition will come out. Then, the needful shall be done,” he said.

Sadare also reacted to a speculation that political bigwigs in PDP, including Governor Makinde, might cross to APC ahead of the 2027 general elections. According to him, “all I can tell you is that no political party would close its doors against new members.”

A source within PDP ruled out the possibility of Governor Makinde defecting to APC. The source also said whatever speculation being carried about Makinde’s political move should not be taken seriously until the governor says it by himself.

“If you have not heard it from the governor, don’t believe it. I believe that everything will become clearer as we move forward,” the source added.

Quote:

‘Some political observers have also noted that the political move of Governor Makinde may surprise many people ahead of the 2027 general elections. There is a rumour that he may defect to APC. But he has not shown any indication that he would leave the PDP.”