From Laide Raheem, Abeokuta
As the next general election is drawing closer in the country, the poser on many people’s lips in Ogun State is whether Ogun -West will be able to break the jinx by producing the governor in 2027. It is a fact that since 1976 when Ogun State was created out of the old Western Region, Ogun -West senatorial district has never produced a governor. Unlike the Ogun- Central and Ogun -East that have produced governors in five different political dispensations, the coveted number one seat in the state has remained elusive to Ogun-West.
In the Second Republic in 1979, an Ijebu-Ode man in Ogun -East, late Olabisi Onabanjo, emerged governor under the banner of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN). He was re-elected in 1983 for the second term, but this was truncated by the military putsch of Generals Muhammadu Buhari/Tunde Idiagbon regime.
Chief Olusegun Osoba, a veteran journalist and politician of Egba extraction in Ogun -Central, was elected governor in 1991 on the platform of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and barely two years in the office, the military coup of late General Sanni Abacha swept the political administration away. When Nigeria returned to democracy in 1999, Osoba was again elected as governor and served till 2003 when he lost his re-election bid to Otunba Gbenga Daniel of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Senator Daniel is a Remo indigene in the Ogun- East senatorial district.
After serving two terms in the office, Senator Ibikunle Amosun from Ogun- Central took the mantle of leadership on the platform of Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in 2011 and served for two terms. In 2019, the incumbent governor of the state, Dapo Abiodun, on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) won the number one seat. Abiodun is from Iperu-Remo in Ogun- East senatorial district.
Daily Sun recalls that in every election in the state, Ogun-West has always shown strong interest and participated in the race to the Oke Mosan, Abeokuta Governor’s Office, but failed to clinch the seat. In 2011, 2015 and 2019, Gboyega Nasir Isiaka, from Ogun-West and the current member of the House of Representatives representing Yewa North/Imeko-Afon Federal Constituency, pulled strong outings in the governorship elections to break the jinx, but could not achieve the feat.
In 2019 also, Adekunle Abdul-Kabir Akinlade, who represented Yewa South/Ipokia Federal Constituency at the Green Chamber of the National Assembly between 2015 and 2019, fought the governorship battle on the platform of All People’s Movement (APM). Like Isiaka, he lost the election to the incumbent governor in the state, despite strong backing by the former governor, Senator Amosun.
Determined to break the cycle in 2023, Biyi Otegbeye, an insurance guru from Ilaro, Yewa South Local Government Area of the state, under the banner of African Democratic Congress (ADC) and equally backed by former Governor Ibikunle Amosun, failed to emerge.
Why is Ogun West yet to hit the bull’s eye? While some watchers of political development and stakeholders in the state have attributed non cohesion and disunity among the political leaders and people of Ogun -West, as the main factor responsible for its inability to produce governor, a fraction of them listed lack of sufficient resources to successfully prosecute governorship ambition.
In another quarter, the palpable political rivalry between the Awori speaking people and core Yewa people in the Ogun -West remains a major stumbling block to the realisation of the life-long dream of the senatorial district. According to this school of thought, the Awori people who are majorly in the Ado-Odo/Ota Local Government Area always go with the Egba people in Ogun -Central during governorship election. It was added that the people who are dominant in the neighbouring Lagos State, have always taken advantage of their large population and voting strength in Ogun State, to pulverise the quest of the Yewa people a la Ogun -West to produce governor.
Corollary to the above, as pointed out by another school, is the heterogenous nature of the senatorial district. According to this postulation, unlike in Ogun- Central and Ogun -East, where the natives are the Egba and Ijebu/Remo people respectively, Ogun- West has plurality of ethnicities such as Awori, Ketu, Egun, Anago, Ohori and sizeable number of Egba dialect speaking people, particularly in Ado-Odo/Ota Local Government Area.
Meanwhile, it is the opinion of some people that the hegemony of the Egba people over the years, on some parts of Ogun -West, has contributed in no small measure to the inability of the senatorial district to occupy the number one seat in Ogun.
Can Ogun West end the dry spell in 2027?
It is obvious that more than before, the clamour for the coveted seat of the governor by Ogun -West has gained a high level of momentum. For the first time, the senatorial district is appearing as a formidable force and rallying strongly in order to end the dry spell come, 2027.
Two years to the next general election, all eyes are fixed on Ogun -West. Even political juggernauts, especially in Ogun -Central and Ogun- East concur that the Ogun -West is not leaving any stone unturned this time around.
Airing his views on the issue, a chieftain of the APC in Ogun -Central who preferred anonymity, disclosed that Ogun -West is really prepared to gun for the governorship seat with a full force never experienced in the politics of Ogun -State. He added that the chances of the senatorial district for governorship have not been brighter, particularly with the advent of Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, otherwise known as Yayi.
The APC chieftain said that since Adeola became the senator representing Ogun -West, his performance has turned around the fortune of the senatorial district, and this has made the people rally massive support for him.
He further confessed that his political giant strides and his delivery of dividends of democracy in Ogun -West and by extension to Ogun-East and Ogun-Central have unsettled any political permutation and shifted the paradigm in Ogun politics.
He noted that though Ogun-West has other capable hands as governorship aspirants, the politician, however, urged the leaders and political stakeholders in the senatorial district to put their best foot forward in 2027.
Adejare Idris, an entrepreneur based in Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, expressed dismay that the Ogun-West senatorial which houses the industrial hub not only in Ogun, but Nigeria, is yet to produce a governor since 1976. He noted that politics is truly a game of number, Ogun -West can still surmount this obstacle, if somebody who has enough resources, political clout and the right connection with the presidency can be given the governorship ticket in 2027.
For Akinola Adeoye, a lecturer at a federal university and indigene of Yewa North Local Government Area, Ogun -West must give serious consideration to someone with pedigree who has been consistent in the governorship race over the years. He warned that any attempt by the political leaders in the senatorial district to queue behind a particular aspirant because of his financial strength may not produce the desired results.
In her submission, a member of New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) in Sagamu, Sagamu Local Government Area of Ogun State, Mrs Bamise Odunuga, declared that in order for Ogun-West to get the governorship position in 2027, it must do away with sentiment and support the person who has the financial muscle and acceptance from two other senatorial districts. She added that such an aspirant must also be very close to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and wave huge influence in the presidency.
According to her, “the year 2027 is going to be different. People are now better informed and have gained more political experience. Sentiment will not have any role to play. Money, acceptance, clout and unfettered connection and access to the Aso Rock Presidential Villa, will determine who wears the crown in 2027.
“And for the Ogun -West to clinch the governorship seat in the next general election, the incumbent senator is their best choice. Apart from his sterling performance as a senator, realistically, he is the best in terms of resources, acceptance and popularity among other aspirants. I learnt that Senator Adeola is one of the inner caucus members at Bourdillon and political godson of President Tinubu. Let me tell you, that CV is huge and intimidating!
“So, the best way Ogun -West can break the governorship jinx is to rally round the senator in his aspiration to take the senatorial district to the Promised Land. Even, our people in Ogun -East have benefited from his empowerment programmes and scholarship awards. For me, the senator is the best Ogun-West can put forward in 2027,” she added.
Speaking on the matter, Abiola Atobatele, a student of Moshood Abiola Polytechnic, Abeokuta, said that as a native of Egbaland, he would want his kinsman to succeed Governor Dapo Abiodun after the expiration of his tenure in 2027. He argued that it should be the turn of Ogun -Central to produce the governor after Ogun -East. He, however, expressed doubt that Ogun -Central will achieve this feat because of Senator Adeola’s incursion into Ogun politics.
Abiola, who disclosed that he was one of the promoters of ‘Egba Agenda’ towards the governorship race in 2027, said he is seriously reconsidering his stance as many top politicians in Ogun-Central have pitched their tent with the senator.
He added that infrastructure projects, particularly street lights, the senator have facilitated to the Ogun -Central, has made it more difficult to sell Egba Agenda mantra to the people.
Regardless, though 2027 is about two years away, moves have started underground to shop for Governor Abiodun’s successor. People’s pulses indicate that Ogun-West should produce the next governor in the spirit of fairness, equity and justice. However, Ogun- Central and Ogun-East senatorial districts also fix their gaze on the golden ball. Will Ogun-West be able to break the shackles and clinch the governorship seat in 2027? Unfolding events will tell.