By Omoniyi Salaudeen
The 2023 transition process, having run its full circle, the state political gladiators are now expectedly back to the drawing board to review their performances in the last polls so as to determine the next line of action.
Moving forward, therefore, one of the issues already put on the table for discussion is the possibility of a merger of the opposition political parties to confront the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the future elections. This is part of the renewed tragedy to prevent the entrenchment of a one-party state.
The presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the last election, Atiku Abubakar, concerned with the continued dominance of the APC, recently stressed the imperative of the new thinking, suggesting the need for the opposition parties to merge into a formidable force before the next presidential poll.
Atiku threw the charge when he hosted the National Executive Committee of the Inter-Party Advisory Council (IPAC) led by Yabagi Sani in Abuja, expressing concern that Nigeria was moving towards a “one-party dictatorship” state and called on other opposition parties to come together to defeat the ruling APC.
“Today, during a meeting with the National Executive Committee of the Inter-Party Advisory Council Nigeria (IPAC), I emphasized the importance of protecting our democracy. I expressed concern over the APC’s actions, leading Nigeria towards a one-party dictatorship. I urged IPAC, led by Yabagi Sani, to rally opposition parties to form a stronger front against this threat.
“We have all seen how the APC is increasingly turning Nigeria into a dictatorship of one party. If we don’t come together to challenge what the ruling party is trying to create, our democracy will suffer for it, and the consequences of it will affect the generations yet unborn,” he stated.
This suggestion is coming on the heels of the judgment of the Supreme Court affirming the victory of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the last presidential election. With the pronouncement, obviously, Atiku is not just merely flying the kite; he has something up his sleeve. It shows that he is not ready to give up despite the combined disadvantages of his age and the perceived monotony of his failed presidential bids.
Since 1993, he has been pursuing his over-arching ambition to rule the country with passion and enthusiasm. By 2027, when Nigerians will be going to the poll again to elect another president, he will be 81. Medically, at above 65, most senior citizens are vulnerable to memory loss, and confusion with time or place, leading to the challenges of planning and problem-solving. With his seeming obsession with power, Atiku may not let go in the next general election. He is as fixated as he is undaunted.
By his renewed call for a merger arrangement, the former vice president is trying to re-enact the event of February 6, 2013, when the leading opposition parties-Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) along with a breakaway faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the new Peoples Democratic Party (nPDP) coalesced to form the All Progressives Congress (APC) that defeated former President Goodluck Jonathan in the 2015 presidential election.
Atiku was a part of the merger, but had to pull out of the party following the loss of the presidential ticket to former President Muhammadu Buhari.
Having reopened another debate for a new coalition far ahead of the next general elections, some opposition parties have already reacted to the call. While the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) described the proposal as a welcome development, LP on the other hand, has distanced itself from any idea of a merger.
The Labour Party, in a swift reaction, said that it had no plan to merge with the Peoples Democratic Party to dislodge the ruling All Progressives Congress in the 2027 general elections.
LP spokesman, Obiora Ifoh, while responding to Atiku’s suggestion in a statement, said that the party had not discussed any merger, stating the call “was only a proposal and every Nigerian should be interested in making democracy work in Nigeria and that what we have presently is an autocracy.
“There was nowhere in the response that the purported merger between LP and PDP was mentioned.”
The acting NNPP National Chairman, Abba Ali, noted how the merger of opposition parties before the 2015 elections led to the APC, which defeated the then ruling party, PDP.
The acting National Chairman of the NNPP, Abba Ali, at a press conference in Abuja, noted that the merger of opposition parties before the 2015 elections led to the defeat of the PDP by the APC.
He said: “Just recently, the former Vice President of the Federal Republic, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, was reported to have called for a merger of opposition parties as a way of checkmating the inordinate drive of the ruling APC towards a one-party state and protecting our hard-earned democracy.
“The NNPP sees this call from Atiku Abubakar as patriotic and a welcome development for which we unreservedly commend him.
“To that extent, the NNPP reiterates its position that the former Vice President’s latest call is a proposal we applaud wholeheartedly.
“However, as we stated earlier, while we fully embrace this initiative and applaud it as a matter of necessity, the NNPP is looking at this issue from a much larger perspective and considering all factors inherent in it.”
A renowned activist and socio-political commentator, Senator Shehu Sani, who represented Kaduna Central Senatorial District in the 8th National Assembly, while also reacting to the rumoured merger plan, applauded the initiative as a good omen for Nigeria’s democracy.
He said that the opposition parties appeared to have learned their lessons after the defeats they suffered in the just-concluded elections.
He wrote via his Twitter handle: “The speculation that the opposition are planning to unite is good for democracy; now they are studying geography after the earthquake.”
Good as the idea of forming a coalition of opposition may sound; it is intriguing that the proposal is coming from Atiku who has failed serially to secure the mandate of the electorate.
As far as the target of the 2027 election is concerned, the contest for power within the merger will be a straight fight between Peter Obi and Kwankwaso.
Even at that, the ego and personal ambition of these two gladiators will make it almost impossible for the merger talk to work.
But for the last success of the coalition that culminated in the formation of the ruling APC, the history of mergers in Nigeria since the pre-independence era has always been marred by ego and personality clashes.
For instance, in the Second Republic, when Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe of NPP, Chief Obafemi Awolowo of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), Mallam Aminu Kano-led People Redemption Party (PRP) and the Great Nigerian Peoples Party (GNPP) led by Alhaji Ibrahim Waziri came together and conceived Progressive People’s Alliance (PPA) to counter the dominance of NPN as the ruling party in 1983 general elections, they could not strike an accord on the leadership structure and redistribution of office.
The lack of consensus on certain fundamental issues inevitably brought about the collapse of the PPA.
In Nigeria’s chequered political history, the character of political parties and mismanagement of ethnic diversity have always accounted for the inability of political parties to develop a strong coalition to entrench democratic consolidation in the country. Nothing significant seems to have changed in this old narrative.
Prof Jibrin Ibrahim, a political scientist, gave his perspective on the challenges that may likely mar the success chance of the new initiative.
Speaking on Arise television, he said: “The idea of merger of opposition is a very old idea in Nigeria politics back to the 1960s. When elections come, there will always be a coalition of two political parties, one for the party in government and one for the opposition. But their being able to merge has been extremely rare. APC is one of those very rare situations where there was a merger of political parties to form a big party.
“The logic of forming a coalition is right. It makes sense when you oppose merging so that you have greater strength. But the real problem is the question of ego.
“Those parties don’t stand for anything in terms of ideology or principle. If they did, then you can look into the ideology and principles that will meet the expectations of all political aspirants’ aspiration to merge. But in most cases, there is no ideology other than the ego and the ambitions of these individuals.
“What we know is that these individuals have been hopping from one party to another depending on what their personal situation is. This is what makes it difficult for the merger to work because the individual is looking at his desire, ambition, and ego.
“It is also important to note that these may not be the only key players for the next round of elections. There is always a possibility that new players will come up. A player like Atiku Abubakar has been seeking the presidency since 1993. And a lot of Nigerians are beginning to say, ‘Don’t we have other candidates that can offer something better,’ especially knowing that these individuals have had so many opportunities which they were unable to take. This time around, they will like to see new faces emerge.
“We do know it is not easy for new faces to emerge, there are stumbling blocks including money and resources. But there are always ways of going around these stumbling blocks. It is important for Nigerians to start looking around for new political actors to create better conditions for political transition in the near future.
“Mergers will always involve an agreement of certain key actors on what should be the collective interest that will serve the interest of all. If they merge, and they are able to make individual actors submit their own ambition, it will work. But the problem is that in Nigeria, we don’t have those conditions under which those who want power can suppress their ambition. In the end, self-interest is much more a priority than collective interest.
“For instance, the huge movement behind Peter Obi will not accept that he suppresses his own ambition for somebody else because he is seen as a political saviour.
“For Kwankwaso, the results of the last elections show that he has a limitation in terms of geographical spread. Atiku has made too many attempts. He’s been in it for too long. So, the possibility of him emerging again as a credible candidate is very limited.”
Already, the APC has slammed Atiku for calling on the opposition to merge, saying that he is only struggling to come to terms with the reality of having lost at the presidential poll.
In a statement by its National Publicity Secretary, Felix Morka, the party urged the PDP to focus on resolving its internal party crisis.
“It is pitiful that a statesman of Atiku’s standing would so easily conflate the wide acceptance of our great party among Nigerians with his irrational fear of one-party dictatorship.
“Remarkably, Atiku and his PDP have not only consistently failed at the polls, they have proved incapable of offering a credible alternative political vision as expected of an opposition party.
“We urge Atiku to concentrate on repairing his damaged political psyche and attempt to revive his comatose PDP and leave APC out of their combined predicament,” Morka said.