By Omoniyi Salaudeen
For quite a while, the issue of alliance formation has become a topic for political discussion in the country. In conventional politics, a shift in alliance is a normal practice. But in this case, state actors appear to have been caught in mass hysteria. In hasty preparation for the 2027 power transition, they have been in a frenzied game of musical chairs, switching parties with dizzying speed in pursuit of the next big opportunity.
This is just as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu approaches the midpoint of his four-year tenure, with May 29 marking his two years in office. By vigorously pushing for a strong coalition that can wrest power from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), the proponents of a new alliance formation aim to upset the apple cart far ahead of the next general elections.
In so doing, they draw inspiration from the 2015 APC formation. However, the wave of defections that recently hit the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has shown that the emerging coalition forces may be facing significant challenges in the months ahead. Despite Atiku Abubakar and Nasir El-Rufai’s unrelenting efforts in promoting a new alliance formation, the idea of pulling forces together to confront the ruling party has formidable odds that could determine its viability and impact on Nigeria’s political landscape. Given the rapidly depleting strength of the opposition, there is general skepticism that the coalition may not go far in the present circumstances.
Nevertheless, the promoters of the coalition have continued to intensify efforts to woo more people into the fold. With the combined emotions and sentiments employed in their campaign against the Tinubu administration, the recent defection has sparked a range of perspectives. On one hand, some stakeholders have expressed concern about the gradual drifting of the country towards a one-party state. The opposition parties, in particular, are blaming the government of President Tinubu for instigating the defections in a desperate move to secure a second term. Concerned individuals like Atiku, who believes that Tinubu’s record of performance cannot return him to office, attributed the crisis crippling the opposition to the handiwork of the APC-led government.
Beyond the scapegoat theory, the greatest hurdle facing the coalition is a lack of public trust that the proponents of a new alliance have had to grapple with. Regardless of the causes of a sudden shift in alliance in favour of the ruling party, the wave of defection witnessed has far-reaching consequences for the opposition. It has created a doubt about the opposition party’s ability to provide a credible alternative to the ruling party.
This is due partly to the absence of a strong leader who can provide a new sense of direction for the coalition, contrary to the experience of the 2015 alliance that metamorphosed into the ruling APC. In contrast to the combined political strength of former president Muhammadu Buhari and his Tinubu ally, which accounted for the success of the coalition, Atiku and El-Rufai, who are leading the new alliance formation, have a trust deficit. That trust deficit is the reason the PDP governors rejected the idea of a coalition. Rising from their recent meeting in Lagos, they blamed the lingering leadership crisis bedeviling the party on Atiku’s presidential ambition. The former vice President, a perennial contender since the 1990s, has traversed virtually all political parties, shifting alliances at every given opportunity. His obsession with power and ambition to rule the country is at the heart of the current turmoil in the party. It was the reason PDP broke into three factions on the eve of the last election. It is the reason he has been unable to rebuild the party two years after the last election. It is also why he is arguably the first Nigerian presidential candidate to lose two running mates to defections.
With the recent defection of the Delta State governor and six others in a waiting list, the PDP appears to be irredeemable. The party can only have a new leash of life when Atiku, the main obstacle, decides to step down. As it currently stands, PDP is technically dead. Blaming Tinubu for the wreckage is the least line of action that can redeem the party. Some people have already predicated that Atiku will leave the party. Time will tell.
Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, a former two-time Governor of Kaduna State, former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, was one of the original 37 persons who founded the APC, and he contributed to the victory of the party in 2023. Because he felt left out of the sharing of the spoils of victory after the elections, he is now the arrow-head of the latest political movement. He has provided a meeting ground for all hidden and open anti-Tinubu conspirators. He belongs to the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), originally, a building bloc of the APC. Whether or not he will succeed in carrying other aggrieved members along to the SPD is a different ballgame. He has defended his movement to the SDP even with the mass defections to the APC.
It is not known for now if the emerging group seeking accommodation in the Social Democratic Party (SDP), will possibly take over the party completely, or create a new platform as was the case with the emergence of the APC in 2013.
He had approached former President Buhari to seek his blessing for his new political adventure with his anti-Tinubu/APC coalition. Buhari had to respond later, by affirming his support and loyalty to the party that gave him the ticket to be President for two terms.
For these reasons, the public’s perception of the new coalition has been largely influenced by concerns about the motivations behind its formation. It has been noted that some individuals driving the coalition are doing so for personal gains or selfish ambition. The credibility and integrity of the coalition’s leaders play a significant role in shaping public perception. The public perceives the coalition as being driven by selfish ambition, leading to widespread skepticism about its intentions and effectiveness.
The coalition’s ability to dislodge the ruling party seems uncertain for now. Several factors have contributed to this uncertainty. One of these is the ruling party’s stronghold. With the control of 15 states, APC has shown an ability to absorb opposition forces, as seen in the 2013 merger that formed the APC, which might make it challenging for the new coalition to gain ground.
However, if the coalition prioritizes policy issues that benefit the broader public, it could help shift the focus away from individual ambitions.
Professor Okey Okechukwu, a former chieftain of the CPC and Executive Director of Development Specs Academy, while analyzing the intricacies of the new coalition on Arise TV, raised a lot of questions begging for answers.
He said, “The APC government under President Tinubu has really dealt with El-Rufai. I am very much concerned whether he still retains the same political relevance that made him a very strong factor within the CPC movement.
“I am also concerned that many of his co-travellers on that path, to a large extent, have found accommodation elsewhere. Assuming he pulled some individuals along with him, if those individuals have control of the party machinery, it will be something to worry about. If they don’t, they will go with their own name, they will speak in public about how badly things are going but they are not going to leverage anything politically solid that they can impact the environment.
“You can also not rule out the President’s capacity for political strategy. We all know that many of us were absolutely sure that he was not going to get the APC, he got it. People felt that international community would bring down the sun and the moon together here, nothing happened. Prominent Nigerians stood against him, they couldn’t stop him. Even currency remodeling or repainting, if you like the expression for those who are sarcastic, was presumed to be targeted at him. In spite of it all, the man won the election. And you believe as President, he will just sit down drinking tea or eating kulikuli while you are planning to take him out of office.
“I believe he knows the vulnerability of all those fighting against him. He also has the supreme power of patronage in an environment where politics is driven by cash. His trajectory in Lagos also shows that he doesn’t sleep provided he has his mind on something.
“The question is: Do you find capacity elsewhere that can match that? There is presumed to be a coalition working to knock APC out of power. They may be doing something I am not aware of. But looking at the people involved, how many of them do not want to be president? Secondly, look at their ideological differences, what is it they are going to leverage? What is their age bracket? How long have they been around? Where are the young people among them if they are aspiring to create a new Nigeria? My take: Looking at the coalition, the political economy of our nation and the forces at play, I don’t see their coalition having the strength of a featherweight. But I may be mistaken”.
A former governor of Jigawa State, Sule Lamido sharing similar view in an interview, stated that it would be difficult to beat Tinubu in 2027, saying “he is not the creation of any constituency. He is not a creation of any particular institution. He is an emilokan (It is my turn now). And if you look at what he was from the time he was in Atlanta or America, coming into AD and then disseminating AD and Afenifere and then engaging Obasanjo, engaging Buhari to become the candidate, you will see that no institution supported him. It was only him. When he picked the ticket, Afenifere was against him, Obasanjo was against him, all of us were against him, everybody in Nigeria, name it Afenifere, ACF, Middle Belt, Ohanaeze. And, of course, he became the President. So, tell me, is Tinubu the creation of APC? Is he a creation of ACF or is he a creation of Afenifere? Or is he the creation of ACN? He is nobody’s creation,” Lamido declared.
In politics, two years is a long distance. Anything can happen; a permutation can change. The only thing that cannot change is the power of incumbency and the resources for political patronage. If the signal for more defection is anything to go by, the coalition will have to do a lot of work to oust the ruling party and the president.
In Nigeria’s political landscape, the lack of clear-cut ideologies among parties has contributed to the ease with which politicians switch parties. When parties don’t have distinct ideological identities, politicians will always prioritize personal interests or opportunistic gains over party loyalty.