By Chidiebere Onyemaizu
As moves by opposition politicians and political parties to form a mega coalition to oust President Bola Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress (APC) from power in 2027 gather momentum, one of the eggheads of the moves and presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 presidential election, Peter Obi, sources suggest, is in a dilemma as to his presidential ambition and what becomes of him in the coalition.
Obi’s supporters, known as the Obidient Movement, are uncompromising in their insistence that he distances himself from the coalition and he should instead go solo and contest the presidency in 2027. They are vehemently opposed to the former Anambra State governor deputising for anyone in 2027 and have threatened not only to desert him but work against him, if he does so.
Apparently, to placate supporters, Obi, last week, announced he would contest the 2027 presidential election on the platform of the Labour Party. He spoke in response to a question during an interaction with some of his young supporters.
Asked on which platform he intends to contest the 2027 presidential election, Obi said: “I will still continue to run in the Labour Party. I’m a member of the Labour Party.”
Analysts, however, believe that by making the announcement, Obi was merely trying to buy time, calm nerves and temporarily free himself from pressure from his restive supporters while weighing the options before him.
Aware that the dynamics have changed and the political environment heavily polluted with APC’s ferocious scheming to retain the presidency at all cost and that he may not be able to record in 2027 the kind of electoral success he achieved in 2023, the most attractive option before Obi, sources close to him told Daily Sun, is to pair with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the 2023 presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), as a running mate in the coalition. But they were quick to add that how to put this decision across to his supporters is the dilemma facing Obi.
“He is disturbed about the likely reactions of his supporters, the political implications and consequences of such action on his political future, especially as many of his loyalists have repeatedly warned that he would have severely harmed his political career if he stoops low to deputise either Atiku or El-Rufai,” another source said.
Apart from the former Anambra State governor, immediate past Kaduna State governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, and Atiku are the most visible figures in the emerging coalition. So far, permutations about the possible presidential standard-bearers of the coalition for the 2027 presidential election oscillate between Obi/El-Rufai ticket, El-Rufai/Obi ticket and Atiku/Obi ticket.
However, given that El-Rufai is untested on the national election stage and given the proven combined political strength of the duo of Atiku and Obi, the most widely discussed and anticipated of the above pairings is their ticket. In fact, some pro-coalition opposition politicians insist that an Atiku/Obi ticket will be formidable and the surest route to ousting Tinubu and the APC from power.
One of the unique selling propositions of the Atiku/Obi ticket is the one-term presidency, which Atiku has allegedly proposed. This means that, if elected, the former Vice President will only serve a term as President and then support Obi in 2031 to be elected as President. Besides the one term offer, Atiku is also believed to have privately pledged to resign as President a few months to the 2031 presidential election thus paving the way for Obi to emerge as President and contest the presidential election as a sitting President.
Speaking on the alleged deal, Dr. Wilfred Tambari, a political scientist and public affairs commentator, said, “Atiku appears committed to the South-East producing the President in the shortest possible time and wants to facilitate that, he wants that to happen through his strategy.
“Politics is a game of wits and numbers, and real and deft politicians, including His Excellency, Peter Obi, himself, know that his (Obi) sole candidacy in 2027 may not guarantee him and the South-East a ride to Aso Rock. He needs a supporting ladder and that ladder is Atiku and the coalition, but then the Obidient movement is not seeing things from this perspective.
“What the Obidients fail to realise is that the optics and political dynamics have changed: 2026 won’t be like 2023, and every indication points to the fact that their principal, running as a candidate, may not be able to achieve the kind of impressive electoral surprises he pulled in 2023.
“For one, Labour Party is now virtually dead and most politicians elected on its platform through the Obi Effect are now in the APC, they have supporters and will certainly ask these supporters to vote, not Labour Party, but the APC. Secondly, the ruling party, the APC, is not prepared to lose the 2027 elections and will be ready to employ all kinds of antics and tricks to intimidate the opposition and retain power. The only viable way of ousting them from power is a coalition of parties with a formidable pair of Atiku and Obi on the ticket. Atiku and Obi’s combined electoral strength will shove the APC aside.”
Daily Sun recalls that, against pundits and bookmakers’ permutations in the 2023 presidential election, Obi and Labour Party won in 12 states, polling 6,101,533 votes or 25.40 percent of the total votes cast. The party also went on to win one governorship seat (Abia) and 39 House of Assembly seats nationwide.
Relatively obscure in the political arena before the 2023 general election, the Labour Party, which was previously known as the Party for Social Democracy (PSD), gained unprecedented popularity in the run-up to the election with what was described by many as the Peter Obi Phenomenon.
In the election, Atiku, running on the platform of the PDP, garnered 6,984,520 votes, 29.07 percent of the total votes cast, while Tinubu who was eventually announced winner by INEC recorded 8,794,726 votes, or 36.61 percent of the total votes cast.
Given the number of votes garnered by the three top candidates, political analysts opine that, had Atiku and Obi combined their strengths and contested as a single ticket, Tinubu and the APC would have been roundly defeated.
Meanwhile, Ichie Fred Chukwulobe, an astute media strategist and former chief press secretary to former Anambra State Governor, Dr. Chris Nigige, has highlighted the likely consequences of Obi’s participation in the 2027 presidential election on the platform of the Labour Party, warning that the APC will do everything humanly possible to frustrate him.
“Presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 election, Mr. Peter Obi, says he’s running again for President in 2027, and that he’s running on the platform of Labour Party. May I ask, which of them? The Abure or the Apapa faction? Is it the Nenadi Usman faction?
“Let me sound a note of warning: Peter Obi will have no party to run on, come 2027. The APC under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will not allow any opposition party to thrive. Unless Peter Obi plays his card well with the on-going coalition talks, he will soon find out that he has been deserted by those with electoral value.
“The APC will destroy the Labour Party, the PDP, the ADC, and any opposition by whatever name called. I am not being pessimistic; I’m only being realistic. Politicians have no honour. They are not in the business of politics for the people. They are there for themselves. Forget all the news they make. They don’t give a damn. It is about money and power, and the most corrupt get the two. Every politician thinks about money and power. Whoever will give them that is who they will follow. The cleaner you are, the less likely your chances of becoming the President of this country.
“All the noises coming from the North are coming from some disgruntled politicians and Mallam Nasir El-Rufai who was denied a ministerial appointment, Tinubu will handle him. Don’t forget Mallam Nuhu Ribadu is still the NSA and he’s not disgruntled. Atiku Abubakar is desperate to become President. He will never be running mate to anybody. He has no pathway to the presidency.
“Peter Obi says he wants to run so he could repair the country. I am sorry to disappoint you; he has no pathway to the presidency of this country. Nigerians are docile, tribal, gullible, hateful and incapable of fighting for their rights. They want ‘good leaders’ but that is subjective. Who is good for you may not be good for others. As long as Peter Obi is an Igbo man and is ‘determined to run a purposeful government,’ he won’t be allowed by the establishment to get into Aso Rock. This may sound defeatist. Many people will not agree with me. Many will get angry and accuse me of demarketing Peter Obi. I am not. I have since lost faith in this country. It wants change but it doesn’t support change,” Chukwulobe said.
On his part, Samuel Ajayi, a public affairs commentator, noted that the gale of defections and endorsements highlight President Tinubu’s desperation for a second term.
“No President has done the kind of subtle campaign Tinubu is doing in less than two years in office. Gale of endorsements, wooing of opposition elements, coercing the National Assembly to endorse him, corralling party leadership to declare him as the sole candidate, dangling project carrots all over, unleashing son on the nation and so on. All these point to one thing: desperation. They won’t admit it, but that is what it is.
“For obvious reasons, many of Obi’s supporters do not want him to be a running mate to anyone. In fact, some of them do not even want him to enter into an alliance or coalition at all. Yet, they want him to pick a strong northern figure as running mate who will sell him in the core North. The belief among many Obi supporters is that he is better than any other candidate in the 2027 presidential race. I always laugh. Let’s assume we are guaranteed a free and fair election. An average northern voter does not reason like those of us in the South. What informs his electoral decision is different from yours and mine. Know this, know peace.
“Someone mentioned Governor Zulum of Borno State. What influence has Zulum beyond Borno? El-Rufai, as far as northern politics is concerned, is well above Zulum in every ramification. My consolation is that Obi is doing serious and critical consultations behind the scenes. I am aware of this. He knows where his strengths lie and where he needs to reach out to other politicians and make a compromise, which may include being running-mate to someone else. The game is a game of numbers, n∑ot of sentiments and emotions,” Ajayi added.