Every President and the governing political party can only infuse democracy with a new intensity of participation if the President and his party can show competence and performance in the issues that call for his attention. Prove of competence, effectiveness and record of performance are key attributes that can fill a leader with a genuine self-confidence. In the absence of these, nothing will work. In other words, any political party seeking to retain power must come with a record of performance before the voters. As former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan noted in his memoir, “My Transition Hours”, “democracy is not just about fulfilling all righteousness by treating the people to the ballot box that you bring out on Election Day, democracy boils down to legitimacy and ensuring that the people have the necessary dividends. Elections must offer valid choices”.
Dr. Jonathan is right. If, indeed, people are to take the trouble to vote in elections, they must expect something from the leaders they choose. In fact, at a minimum, the people expect this much: First, that a candidate for president have a programme to address the central problems that concern the people – not necessarily one with all the answers, but at least a philosophy and an approach that give promise of succeeding. Second, that the winning candidate then proceed to accomplish this programme captured in his promises – again, not in every detail or all at once, but with enough actual achievement to give the public a sense of progress toward the goals that were projected in the campaign. These are the things that define national priorities. In all genuine democracies, not guarded ones, this is the path to progress. As another general elections near, disillusionment with the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) has become endemic. The nation is on the brink. And I have been thinking how the APC will wage a winning national campaign and convince Nigerians to give it another mandate in 2023. President Muhammadu Buhari will not be on the ballot, but the record of his 8 years in power will resonate. His self-acclaimed morality and decency rest upon only a thin reed of truth. Questions such as these will be asked: what’s APC record of performance to warrant another four years? Any steady progress in the country since it came to power in 2015? Any peace and public trust? Any improvement in security and welfare of the people? What about the state of the economy, better now or worse? What about corruption? In short, any record of progress/performance that the party should be proud of?
Undoubtedly the stakes are much higher this time round than they were in 2015 and 2019 elections. No campaign will be credible, acceptable and responsible without any record of performance that the people can see and feel. It’s not unkind to say that the last seven years of APC represent an awful lot of misery never seen before at least since after the civil war. Reality bites, but this is the truth. It’s the sad story of millions of Nigerians under the leadership of APC. The issue is poor leadership, incompetence and ineffectiveness in the management of the country. By any measure, Nigeria is worse off today than it was seven years ago. The ruling party is in desperate political trouble to hold on to power. Its leadership is like clouds without water. That’s how terrible things have become in Nigeria today under the watch of APC. We can now see that no leader can be great who does not know how to use power to achieve great purposes.
I am waiting to see what kind of campaign strategy the party will develop, the theme and record it will run on, what realistic objectives it will emphasize for the next four years, effective, 2023, and of course, how it will convince and ‘convert’ Nigerians to vote for the party again after squandering their trust for this long. Of course, questions will be asked: how have we faired as a people? Insecurity has squeezed everyone to a corner. Nigerians are divided down the middle, more polarized than ever before. The economy is wobbling. It’s like a company under receivership. Records show that the national grid has collapsed more than 130 times since 2015.
For many people, it’s like midnight in Nigeria. Nigeria is maimed and broken. It is no longer a nation of our fathers’ dream. If Nigerians are ready for the truth simply spoken, about how our lives have been badly run these seven years, we need a change of leadership. We should no longer be governed by propaganda, lies and distortion of facts. As a student of Advertising and Public Relations, I cannot see how an image management consultant can repair a broken egg. The only conceivable way forward for APC is to go on the offensive with cocktail of lies and blame all the misery in the country on the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party, and perhaps go to the supine, ridiculous length that PDP is responsible for all ‘miscarriages’ by Nigerian women. But the day of exaggerated lies may have passed, and fortunately so. Playing fast and loose with the facts as it did in 2015 won’t work this time round. Nigerians are now wiser. In 2023, voters will demand performance, not promises, specifics, not platitudes. Any attempt to take advantage of incumbency comes with its own immediate, grave consequences.
It’s time to talk about substance. It’s time to talk about leadership and character of our country and the vision of the future. In every one of these instances, the present administration has failed the people. In all the areas the APC made firm promises, it has not delivered. Literally speaking, Buhari promised the moon, but delivered cheese. On corruption, Nigeria has gotten the worst global corruption ranking since 2015. On security, things are getting progressively worse than they were in 2015. Calamity, instead of ‘Change’ is the order of the day. Last year, the government of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) named six Nigerians among global terrorists. What has the government since then? Nothing. APC style is looking very much like a government on AWOL.
If you think insecurity is one area this government has the worst record of performance, you may not be wrong. But, on the economy, the record is abysmal too. Rates of unemployment, inflation, poverty are surging. Check out the facts: According to data on the website of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), on May 29, 2015, President Buhari inherited a foreign reserve of $28.6bn as well as $5.6bn NLGN dividend. Jonathan administration also left a total of $2.2bn in the Excess Crude Account (ECA). This has been verified by the Ministry of Finance. Besides, in May 2015, President Buhari inherited an economy, which the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) described as the preferred destination for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Africa. It stood at $35.25bn. What has happened now? It has gone down to $11.55 between 2016 and 2020.
According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the Buhari government could only manage to attract $698.7 million of FDI last year, the lowest in ten years. Exchange rate has plummeted to almost N600/$1. It was N199/$1 in 2015. Unemployment rate is now over 35 percent, headline inflation has surged to 16 percent. Poverty rate is at its highest. Where is the foundation the President promised in his 2020 New Year Letter to take a “100 million Nigerians out of mass poverty in the next 10 years”? External debt stood at $7.73bn in 2015. Today, it’s close to $40bn. Over 48 percent of these are bilateral and commercial loans. Domestic debt servicing has risen to over N2trn from N1.53trn recorded in the same period of 2020. Yet, the President is still on a borrowing binge. Default on repayment is looming with its unpleasant consequences. Who says “Change” hasn’t become a malaise or a curse?