At the advent of the current democratic dispensation in 1999, the military and political class felt that the best way to solve the problem that arose from the annulment of the June 12, 1993, presidential election, which Chief Moshood Kashimawo Olawole (MKO) Abiola was on the verge of winning, was to have the South West produce the President. At that time, what was paramount in the minds of Nigerians was justice. For the majority, justice presupposed that the mandate denied Abiola, who died in the struggle to actualise June 12, should be given to his kinsman to become the first elected President in the post-military democracy.
By design, therefore, the two biggest political parties in the country in 1999, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Peoples Party (APP), chose their candidates from the South West. In that election, however, the APP presented a joint presidential candidate with the Alliance for Democracy (AD). It must be noted that, to ensure that the APP and AD presented a joint candidate in the person of Chief Olu Falae, former Minister of Finance, the South East made the first sacrifice in the current democracy, as the original presidential candidate of the APP, Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu, now Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation, agreed to step down and withdraw from the race for Alhaji Umaru Shinkafi of his political party to pair with Chief Falae of the AD for the joint ticket. Till date, no geopolitical zone in the country has made such a sacrifice to make certain that peace and progress prevail in Nigeria.
Those who have elected to suffer selective amnesia in Nigeria’s polity, owing to their selfish interests, tend to gloss over the fact that Chief Olusegun Obasanjo of the PDP and Chief Falae of the APP/AD became the preferred candidates of their political parties not because they were the best among those who aspired to the office of President in 1999 but because of their South West origins, as Nigerians wanted a good closure to the June 12 brouhaha with the election of a President from the zone. Nobody should lose sight of the fact, also, that Dr. Alex Ekwueme, former Vice-President of Nigeria, who galvanised the G15 to challenge the military government headed by General Sani Abacha to leave office and played leading roles in the formation of the PDP, was dumped in the choice of the PDP presidential candidate for the South West to be appeased. With the setting of the three biggest political parties having South West presidential candidates, it was victory for the zone, head or tail.
We were all witnesses to the fact that Chief Obasanjo won the election and got re-elected in 2003. After he completed the maximum eight years in office, power shifted to the North, with then Katsina State governor, Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua, being elected President, in accordance to an unwritten but agreed arrangement that political power would rotate between the South and the North, regarding the office of President. Yar’Adua would have done eight years in power had it not been that he died in office after three years. When a President dies, the 1999 Constitution, as amended, stipulates that the Vice-President should take the reins of power. To succeed Yar’Adua, therefore, in accordance with constitutional provisions, the Vice-President at that time, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, was sworn in as President.
The election of President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2015 could be taken as the continuation of the power rotation arrangement between the South and the North. From former President Jonathan of the South (South), power rotated to President Buhari of the North (West). Even if President Buhari’s eight-year tenure were to be used as the beginning of another round of power rotation, justice demands that the next President of the country should come from the South. That was the point southern governors across political parties lines made when they rose from a meeting in Lagos and demanded that, in the spirit of power rotation between South and North, President Buhari’s successor should come from Southern Nigeria. In places where justice, fairness and equity are the guiding principles, it should not be an issue. After President Buhari in 2023, the natural thing is for power, at the presidency, to rotate to the South.
As the 2023 general election draws near, with all the problems plaguing the country, from banditry to insurgency, from kidnapping to agitation for self-determination, Nigeria has come to that same point as in 1999 where another compromise must be made to ensure fairness. The decision should not just be that power must rotate to the South after President Buhari but also that power should shift to a specific zone in the South. It is most funny that some elements in the country are trying to bring up the argument that the North should succeed President Buhari because the zone does not have equal number of years in office with the South. The argument is that, since Obasanjo did eight years and Jonathan did five years, the South has done a total of 13 years under the current democracy, with the North, by 2023, only doing 11 years (Yar’Adua’s three years plus President Buhari’s eight years, by 2023). These elements feel, therefore, that the North needs another four years to complete Yar’Adua’s tenure.
For the sake of argument, let’s interrogate this queer political thinking. With President Buhari’s eight years and Yar’Adua’s three years, the North would have occupied the presidency for 11 years by 2023. If Nigerians were to give the North another four years, to, supposedly complete Yar’Adua’s so-called eight years, the region would have occupied the presidency for 15 years by 2027, to the South’s 13 years. The North would still have two years ahead of the South. Where then is the equity? If this were to be done, what would happen to Jonathan’s four years, which President Buhari truncated in 2015? Since the North wants to claim Yar’Adua’s supposedly undone four years, the South could as well lay claim to Jonathan’s four years not done to complete eight years provided for by the Constitution. Besides, if we are talking about equity in the occupation of the office of President/Head of State of Nigeria, it should start from 1960. A rough calculation would show that the North has ruled Nigeria, since Independence, far more than the South.
For the avoidance of doubt, when Nigeria gained independence in 1960, Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, from the North, held the executive power of the country as Prime Minister for five years and three months (from October 1960 to January 1966). General Thomas Aguiyi-Ironsi, from the South, took over power as Head of State in January 1966, after the failed coup that claimed the life of Balewa, and ruled for six months (January 1966 to July 1966). General Yakubu Gowon, from the North, came to power in July 1966 and ruled for nine years (July 1966 to July 1975). Brigadier General Murtala Muhammed, from the North, took over in 1975 and ruled for six months (July 1975 to February 1976). General Obasanjo, from the South, assumed office after Gen. Muhammed’s death in February 1976 and ruled for three years and seven months (from February 1976 to October 1979).
In the Second Republic of democracy, President Shehu Shagari, from the North, assumed office in October 1979 and ruled for four years and two months (October 1979 to December 1983). General Buhari, from the North, came in the saddle in December 1983 and ruled for one year and seven months (from December 1983 to August 1985). General Ibrahim Babangida, from the North, assumed office in August 1985 and ruled for nine years (August 1985 to August 1993). Chief Ernest Shonekan, from the South, headed the Interim National Government for three months (August 1993 to November 1994). General Sani Abacha, from the North, took power in November 1993 and ruled for four years and eight months (November 1993 to July 1998). General Abdulsalami Abubakar, from the North, assumed office in July 1998 and ruled for 10 months (July 1998 to May 1999).
From the foregoing, the North, by the time Nigeria would be 62 years and seven months in May 2023, would have ruled the country for a total of 45 years and 10 months, both military and civilian. The South, on the other hand, by 2023, would have had only 26 years and 10 months at the presidency. This means that the South is 19 years behind in the control of executive political power in the country.
Those who are talking about equity in the command of executive power should, therefore, know that, if there is any catching up to do, it is the South which should. The South needs a total of 19 years to be at par with the North in the occupation of the office of President and Head of State. The expectation of those who believe that power should remain in the North for another four years after President Buhari is, therefore, selfish and uncalled for. With Buhari, the North has taken its fair share of power under the current democracy. Power should rotate to the South in 2023.
For the South, the agitation for power shift to it in 2023 is a legitimate demand. However, for justice and equity’s sake, there should be sub-zoning in the South, for the South East to actually produce the next President. This is so because, in the current democracy, the South East is the only zone that has not produced the President. The North has produced the President in Yar’Adua and Buhari. The South West produced Obasanjo. The South South produced Jonathan as President. Therefore, it is the turn of the South East to produce the next President, after Buhari.
Apart from justice, the sacrifice the South East made in 1999, when Onu withdrew from the presidential race to ensure an all-South West contest, is enough reason to, this time, concede the presidency to the zone in 2023. The North should not contemplate succeeding President Buhari in 2023. Doing so would be most insensitive and unfair.