With candidates of all political parties in place for various elective positions and the beginning of electioneering around the corner, the die is cast for next year’s general election. Notwithstanding the fact that the major political parties are contending with intra-party issues arising from the selection of their presidential candidates and running mates, the polity is ready for the programmes lined up by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), with the expectation that all institutions that have one role or another to play in the elections are equally ready for this national assignment, without blemish.
To be sure, on September 28, barely 12 days away today, the campaign would officially kick off for the candidates gunning for the number one political office in the country. Between that date and January 26, 2023, when campaigns would end, the 18 presidential candidates that have emerged for their political parties would have to convince voters, using whatever legitimate method, that they are the best for the job. The way they mobilise and convince voters as well as their understanding of the dynamics of elections in the country would, to a large extent, determine how they would fare in the election.
Prior to the emergence of the presidential candidates, it was easy to conclude that the race for the presidency was between the two major political parties in the country: the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). However, political developments have proved that, in today’s elections, no political party, no matter how big or seemingly entrenched, could confidently say that elections are there for it to win easily. The recent presidential election in Kenya, which saw the former Vice-President of the country, William Ruto, emerging victorious, has proved that the power of incumbency, previous feats of political parties and calculations based on what political pundits think may not determine the outcome of elections. It has become apparent that whoever the voters want, in ideal situations, carries the day in an election.
In Kenya, the immediate past President, Uhuru Kenyatta, supported Raila Odinga against his deputy, Ruto. Initially, everything looked good for Odinga, son of a former President of the country. However, the tables turned as Ruto’s “hustlers-versus-dynasties” message figuratively caught fire. Ruto won the presidential election and the Supreme Court of Kenya affirmed his victory. Today, he is the President of the Kenya.
In Ukraine, current President, Volodymyr Zelensky, contested against an incumbent President, Petro Poroshenko, in 2019. In the election, Zelensky, a comedian, was considered a political neophyte. Only known for his television comedy series, Servant of the People, he was considered an underdog in the election. When the votes were cast and counted, Zelensky won more than 73 per cent of votes, leaving the incumbent with a paltry 24 per cent. It was a stunning victory, which made Zelensky an instant political celebrity.
There are many other examples where election outcomes were, more or less, against the run of play. In those elections, candidates who were not given much of a chance emerged victorious, while those rated highly ended up losing out. It is democracy, a contest of numbers, where the majority will have their way while the minority will also have their say.
However, the onus will always be on the candidates to market themselves to the voters. In the coming days, from September 28, Nigerians expect former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar of the PDP; ex-Lagos State governor and former senator, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC; former Anambra State governor, Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP); ex-Kano State governor, Alhaji Rabiu Kwankawso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and 14 others to tell voters why they should be supported to occupy the office of President from May 29, 2023.
At a time when insecurity pervades all corners of Nigeria, the people are eagerly waiting for the presidential candidates, during the electioneering, to tell them how they would solve the problem. In specific terms, the voters want to know how the presidential candidates would rein in insurgents, terrorists, kidnappers, bandits and criminal elements who have run roughshod over the citizenry, making everybody to feel insecure. What are the short-term, medium-term and long-term plans of those aspiring to be President to tackle insecurity, restore confidence and ensure the security of life and property? How would they handle the police? What plans do they have for the military? What are the programmes for the intelligence arm of security?
The country’s economy is in shambles, with inflation and cost of living rising to all-time highs. Nigerians want to know what the presidential candidates would do to change the narrative. What are the programmes to take Nigeria from being solely an import-dependent country to an exporting nation? What are the plans to increase electricity generation and for making electricity supply steady? What programmes would the candidates implement, if elected President, to galvanise the productive sector of the economy? What are the plans for job creation and retention? What measures would be taken to ensure that the country meets its oil production quota? What are the plans to end oil theft, which has become an endemic problem in the country? What would the presidential candidates do about payment of fuel subsidy?
Peace is gradually eluding Nigeria. The country is widely polarised, with Nigerians clinging more to their ethnic proclivity than having national inclination. Now, ethnicity is played up more, to the extent that there are self-determination agitations in some parts of the country. How would the presidential candidates restore peace and harmony in the country? How would they make Nigerians of all tribes feel that the country belongs to all of them and not a republic of certain sections of the country? How would the presidential candidates make Nigerians of all tribes believe that they are equal partners in the country and could aspire to the highest political office in the land and actualise their dream of producing the President? What are their takes on restructuring, state police and fiscal federalism, which have been contending issues and at the core of the country’s unity?
With what we have seen, even before the campaign, it is obvious that the coming elections would be interesting and dramatic. The PDP and APC have high ratings, for obvious reasons. The PDP has occupied the Presidency for 16 years. The PDP was once the biggest political party in Nigeria. The PDP once controlled up to 25 states in Nigeria. The PDP is the main opposition political party in the country at present. The PDP presidential candidate, Atiku, is a former Vice-President of Nigeria. He was also an elected governor of Adamawa State, although he did not assume office, having been picked as vice-presidential candidate before being sworn in as governor.
The APC is rated high in the presidential election because it is the ruling political party in the country. By May 2023, the APC would have controlled the Presidency for eight years. The APC is in control of over 20 states currently. The APC has an incumbent President, who, though not running for election, has indicated preference to having his political party win next year’s election. The APC presidential candidate, Tinubu, was governor of Lagos State for eight years. He was senator for four years. He was the backbone of the Alliance for Democracy (AD), which was a third force in the polity in 1999. He has built a strong political machinery and followership.
By the size and antecedents of PDP and APC and the stature of their candidates, people are taking it for granted that it is either Atiku or Tinubu who will win the election. However, despite the fact that it seems so, some developments have unveiled a third force in Peter Obi of the Labour Party. Those who dismiss the LP say it has no structure because it has not occupied the Presidency before, has no elected lawmaker in any state or at the federal level and has no elected governor. Although political structure is necessary and desirable in politics, LP has brought verve to the political landscape, with youth earnestly yearning for Obi. The enthusiastic youth march in the streets. They proudly call themselves “the Obidients” and they are pushing their message with gusto. Their activities have brought new meaning to politicking and redefined political boundaries. Their belief is very strong. And their expectations are high.
Nobody can, therefore, say for sure what would be the outcome of the presidential election, as many factors would come into play. Nobody can confidently predict who the eventual winner would be. However, what is paramount is that, no matter who wins, the process must be transparent, fool-proof and convincing. Nigeria needs a credible election, where the political parties and the candidates play by the rules, where the electoral umpire and security agencies are above board, like Caesar’s wife, where voters are free to cast their votes, without let or hindrance, where the votes so cast are counted, where the votes of each candidate are fully accounted for, and where the winner wins fair and square. That is the ultimate expectation of Nigerian voters for 2023 elections.